All the trade buzz from Jon Ralph, including Jake Lever and Devon Smith analysis, Daniel Menzel and the Dogs’ Jake Stringer mess
FORGET the forward line, new Bomber Devon Smith is set to be a midfield superstar — and JON RALPH has the stats to prove it.
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FINALLY, we have seen some trades.
It took four days, but yesterday Jake Lever made it to Melbourne and Devon Smith landed at the Dons.
Who is next?
JON RALPH breaks down all the trade chatter from yesterday and looks at the men who will make the news today.
LIVE TRADES: EVERY DAY 5 WHISPER, RUMOUR AND DEAL AS IT HAPPENS
STRINGER: COULD HE REMAIN AT THE WESTERN BULLDOGS?
BUCKY: HOW HAWKS VICKERY, PUOPOLO COULD HELP POWER
RALPHY’S BUZZ: TRADE PERIOD OBSERVATIONS
THE AMAZING TAC CUP STATS THAT SHOW WHY DEVON SMITH COULD BE A MIDFIELD STAR
Devon Smith believes he has a bum wrap from all the critics.
As he told the Herald Sun yesterday, too many out there believe he isn’t capable of playing good defensive footy.
“All the teams say I can’t defend. That’s what I hear and read, they all say things like Smith can kick a goal but can’t defend,” he said.
So let’s put that perception to rest.
Smith is and has always been a tackling fiend, averaging an elite five tackles for most of his career.
Here are the numbers below, for his past six years which stack up with any tackling forward in the competition.
But it is what he did as a TAC Cup midfielder that is mouth-watering for Essendon.
They need pure midfielders who can also kick goals and in his final year he blew the competition apart for the Geelong Falcons.
Champion Data says he averaged 27 possessions, two goals and 140 ranking points in that year.
He confirmed yesterday it was playing as a bone fide midfielder.
“It was 90 per cent midfield and 10 per cent forward,” Smith said.
“That’s how Essendon sees me playing and why they recruited me — from my TAC Cup stuff — playing purely as a mid and resting forward.”
When he finished second in the 2014 best-and-fairest he averaged 21.5 possessions and kicked 26 goals in 21 matches, amazing stats for a half forward.
So when Essendon prioritised Smith over Jake Stringer by using a deal involving pick 11, those numbers are why.
As Smith said, he is desperate to play with Stringer too given they roomed together and got on well in the AFL Academy.
But Essendon is crying out for bone fide midfielders and there is no doubt Smith can be that player at Essendon.
WHY WON’T SOMEONE GIVE DANIEL MENZEL A TWO-YEAR DEAL?
We know what Daniel Menzel isn’t — a tackler.
As the Herald Sun revealed a few months back when Geelong put off talks with him, he was the worst pressure and tackling player in the competition.
What he is and has always been is a goal kicker.
Last year he kicked 33 goals.
This year he kicked 40 goals.
So that’s 73 goals from 37 games since coming back from four knees, at 1.97 goals a game.
Not many small forwards kick two goals a game.
Toby Greene kicked 45 goals this year and we lauded him as a potential All Australian.
Jeff Garlett kicked 42 and the Demons pushed him for the All Australian 40.
Surely someone out there is prepared to offer him a two-year deal on the extremely modest terms which would get him over the line.
Maybe he would knock it back anyway, prepared to ride his luck on a one-year deal at Geelong.
But surely he’s in the best side at Gold Coast, or Fremantle, or North Melbourne, or Brisbane.
Yet one of the worst things to be in footballer is a player going against a trend.
And right now if you are a forward you need to tackle.
Some at Geelong believe Menzel doesn’t tackle because he’s in self-preservation mode — desperate to conserve his energy to only kick goals.
Maybe if he had a two-year deal and the total trust and belief of his coach he might be able to change his ways.
There are more than 800 players on AFL lists.
Surely he’s shown enough to be offered a two-year deal somewhere.
TIME FOR LUKE BEVERIDGE TO POP HIS HEAD UP AGAIN
Luke Beveridge has been roundly criticised for telling the Herald Sun’s Mark Robinson that it was time to trade Jake Stringer.
In truth he did say a reconciliation was possible, but he made it absolutely clear in meetings with Stringer’s representatives that the player wasn’t coming back.
Right now no one believes the Dogs when they make it clear they might be prepared to accept Stringer back if they can’t get a first-round pick.
So why doesn’t Beveridge publicly call Essendon’s bluff, stating on the record that he has reconsidered his stance.
Make it clear the Dogs are very much prepared to forgive and forget.
Make it clear they will sell him to the highest bidder or accept him back — but not accept cop unders for a potential superstar.
Beveridge inferred that Stringer was uncoachable when he met his representatives and told them he would be traded.
So maybe they wouldn’t believe him anyway.
But right now its hard to see how the Bombers won’t get the Stringer deal done with their current second-rounder and a future second-rounder
Maybe Geelong will reconsider and stump up pick 20 for Stringer.
Somehow the Dogs need to make rivals believe they actually will accept him back.
At present it just seems like an empty threat.
DID THE DEES REALLY PAY OVERS FOR JAKE LEVER?
IN isolation Melbourne have probably paid too much for Jake Lever.
If they finish eighth next year they will have given up picks 10 and 11 and this year only get back a pick currently at 35.
(They have also come in from the fourth round to the third round next year as part of the deal).
You could make the case they could have held on for another week and tried to improve the deal in some way.
But if you can criticise the minutiae of a specific trade, you can’t fault their bold strike on an opposition star.
It is brilliant and it is potentially game-changing.
When you believe a player can top off your list and put you in the premiership window, sometimes you have to just go out and get him.
The Bulldogs probably paid overs with Tom Boyd, but the windfall was a premiership.
The Tigers spent somewhere up to $3.75 million on Dion Prestia if you believe the $750,000-a-year price tag, but he was brilliant in their recent premiership.
Melbourne will believe that Jake Lever has them locked and loaded for a premiership tilt.
There is no reason why it shouldn’t be next year.
In every way Melbourne’s agonising finish to the season was an unmitigated disaster.
Three losses in their final five games — and the Round 23 loss to lowly Collingwood — basically invited West Coast to pull the finals rug from under them.
But there is no doubt Melbourne should count themselves among the list of premiership contenders next season.
Consider their talls.
They potentially have the best ruck in the game in Max Gawn.
A forward line with talls including potential superstar Jesse Hogan, young tall Sam Weidemann and journeyman Cam Pedersen.
A back line with talls including Tom McDonald, Oscar McDonald, Lever and Sam Frost.
A star-studded midfield.
Dynamic and versatile half backs including Neville Jetta, Christian Salem, Jayden Hunt and veteran Bernie Vince.
Lever might not ever be the “gorilla” Denis Pagan used to speak of who can play on the very best tall forward.
But he will never have to be if he plays behind McDonald or Frost.
Lever is an intercept-marking freak who at 21 could be a captain of the club in a few years.
Yet Melbourne’s game changer next year might still be someone else.
Christian Petracca can transform the Demons from an honest side that grinds rivals down into something magnificent.
The dynamic half froward had big moments in his best season so far this year — a cracking three-goal Queens Birthday performance, four classy goals against Essendon.
Still, there was a sense early in the year that he might tear the competition apart and he ended with 26 goals from 22 games.
Absolutely nothing to quibble about for a 21-year-old in only his second full season.
But as it turned out Jeff Garlett was the more effective player with 42 goals.
If Petracca can elevate to the next level as their finisher, game breaker and match winner, they can go to the next level.
So here is the grand prediction: if Christian Petracca is an All Australian next year, Melbourne will have won the 2018 premiership.
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