Alex Rance’s relationship with Justin Leppitsch could convince him to leave Richmond for Brisbane Lions

A BIG pay rise and an exciting young list could lure Alex Rance away from Richmond. But they aren’t the main reason he might join Brisbane, writes David King.

AFL Round 1 - Richmond v Carlton at MCG , Alex Rance in action. 2nd April 2015. Picture: Colleen Petch.

THE signature of Alex Rance is critical to his team’s premiership aspirations — but which team? Is it Richmond? Or is it Brisbane?

Rance dances to the beat of a different drum, placing factors like culture, teamwork and happiness above financial returns and long-term security. Content enough in his broader life outside the AFL ranks to walk away from the game if his passion wanes.

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While that appears only a remote outcome, it highlights Rance’s uniqueness.

The rise and rise of Alex Rance’s career can be largely attributed to the coaching and tutelage of Justin Leppitsch during his stint as defensive coach under Damien Hardwick.

Leppitsch moulded a raw, athletic and over-enthusiastic Rance into a composed, competitive and complete package by teaching the nuances of bodywork and positioning — with outrageous success.

Rance and Leppitsch have a relationship that I believe is strong enough to encourage an exit from Punt Rd to Queensland. The Brisbane offer will be in excess of $750,000 a year and could be as high as $850,000. While that isn’t the most important factor, it’s more than complimentary and a substantial rise from the current Tiger contract.

An important question is whether Rance considers the Brisbane model closer to success than that of the Tigers.

The Lions have a younger list chock full of midfield talent but, more crucially, defensive assistance.

Is Troy Chaplin a more reliable right-hand man than Daniel Merrett? Jed Adcock and Daniel Rich or Pearce Hanley over Nick Vlastuin and Bachar Houli next season?

All questions Rance will wrestle with over the next few weeks or months.

Alex Rance tries to break two Bulldog tackles. Picture: Michael Klein

Rance is clearly Richmond’s best and most influential player. Statistically his season is as pure as a diamond. All three of his opponents — Lachie Henderson, Tom Boyd and Brent Staker — have been held goalless.

Rance has won 69 per cent of the one-on-one contests he has been involved in and neutralised the rest. He remains unbeaten in all of his one-on-one contests in 2015. Unbeaten!

The AFL average for defenders winning one-on-ones hovers around 30 per cent — one in every three contests. No other defender can boast they’re unbeaten in one-on-ones this year.

The Brisbane Lions are deplorable in defensive one-on-ones, losing almost half of them and rating No.18 in the AFL.

The second-poorest team is the Western Bulldogs who lose 33 per cent, which highlights the gulf between Brisbane and the rest of the competition.

Leppitsch desperately needs Rance. If Brisbane could somehow acquire his services it immediately becomes a lock for finals in 2016. That’s how important he is.

Players that provide structure have demanded the bulk of salary caps at all AFL clubs in recent years.

If Tom Boyd is worth $1 million a year for seven years with the returns expected down the track, then what price Rance who walks in as the AFL’s best defender?

Only Ted Richards and Scotty Thompson have won the ball back more than Rance since the start of 2012. Considering the reliance of turnover scores in the modern game — equating to over 60 per cent of all score — it reinforces that these players are gems.

Richmond ranks No.5 in the league defensively, conceding a miserly 74 points on average. That number that would change significantly in Rance’s absence.

Evidence? Just have a look at Rounds 2-6 last year when a fractured foot suffered in a spill from his scooter kept Rance on the sidelines — the Tigers coughed up 95 points on average.

A portion of the Tigers’ ability to counterpunch after a turnover can also be attributed to the impact of this one-man wall at centre half-back, an improvement of 15 points a game on counter-attack from the backline on last season’s numbers.

Alex Rance is weighing up his options after his Richmond contract expires at the end of this season.

Richmond has invested eight years of development, education and resources into Rance but via a quirk in the rules, Rance is an unrestricted free agent as he currently isn’t in the top nine paid players at Tigerland.

You read that correctly. Alex Rance isn’t in the top nine paid players at Richmond.

Because he sits outside the top 25 per cent of earners, he becomes an unrestricted free agent with the ability to walk from Punt Rd unimpeded if he desires. Without Richmond being afforded the ability to match the rival offer and retain his services.

Who are those being paid more than Alex Rance and are they fulfilling their part of the bargain? Jack Riewoldt? Trent Cotchin? Brett Deledio? Dustin Martin? OK, that’s four, um … um … who else?

This could prove a major list management disaster and halt any climbing on the ladder for quite some time.

Free agency additions and nailing the national draft at season’s end combined with development of younger players already at the club would ensure Damien Hardwick has the ingredients and foundation to chase a top 4-6 position as early as 2016, but not without Alex Rance.

Ultimately, the decision for Rance won’t be financial. It will be a lifestyle-based selection assessing both club cultures and opportunities for success in the short to long-term.

There will be other club offers presented, but none able to compete with Justin Leppitsch’s relationship and bond.

If Rance chooses Leppitsch and the Brisbane Lions it will have severe ramifications for Damien Hardwick and Richmond.