Alastair Lynch: Brownlow Medal most open in years, Gary Ablett strong chance to win
THE Brownlow Medal is a lottery. The most open field in a long time. And Gary Ablett is as good a chance as anyone of winning a third medal.
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IT says plenty about the 2014 Brownlow Medal race that Gary Ablett could be a $1.60 favourite at Round 15, blow out to $8, and now firm to be a $3 second favourite heading into Round 22 — all without playing a game.
It is a lottery. The most open field in a long time.
Ablett, who has not played a game since injuring his shoulder early in Round 16, is as good a chance as anyone of hanging on to what will be a big mid-season lead and pulling off a third medal win.
The other good story contender who will be right in the finish is Lance Franklin.
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Not since Tony Lockett in 1987 has a key forward won the medal, but in a year where a lot of would-be contenders are struggling to get to the line Franklin could surprise.
It has been nothing short of bizarre to see Ablett’s odds shorten dramatically in the past fortnight as leading rivals have been injured or hit a flat spot in form.
Josh Kennedy and Scott Pendlebury were each favourites at one stage as Ablett slipped down the list, but now only Joel Selwood sits above the Gold Coast skipper in the market.
It will be a fascinating count, with much interest on how many votes the twice-suspended Nat Fyfe polls.
At least after Fyfe was suspended for a second time last week we will be spared more of the hard luck claims that he should still have been eligible because his early season bump on Michael Rischitelli was accidental.
It was, and Fyfe is a fantastic young player. But he knew the rules and he broke the rules.
To suggest he could have been reinstated as part of a mid-season review of medal eligibility rules was ludicrous.
The Brownlow Medal is what it is — the official award for the game’s best and fairest player. Part of the appeal is history and tradition, and to tinker with it would be wrong.
Already the AFL Players’ Association Most Value Player Award, the Leigh Matthews Trophy, is growing in significance among the players because it is judged by the players.
The other award I’m tipping will become a lot more prestigious is the AFL Coach’s Association Award in which each coach awards 5-4-3-2-1 after each match.
Interestingly, after 21 rounds, Fyfe led the AFLCA award with 95 votes from Robbie Gray (92), Kennedy (83), Ablett and Matt Priddis (72) and Franklin (70).
With Fyfe suspended and Kennedy injured, Gray’s best afield effort in Port Adelaide’s big win on Friday night will lock up that award, and he is a Brownlow smoky.
But the Brownlow’s 3-2-1 voting system will give Ablett a much better chance.
Calculating how many votes Ablett will need is like mission impossible.
But to use history as a guide, since 2000 the winner has averaged 26.8 votes. More significantly, the runner-up in the same period has averaged 23.
Ten times in 14 years the runner-up has polled 23 votes or less, although, perhaps significantly, the runner-up tally in the last four years has been 27, 26, 28 and 26.
It will be a miracle if Ablett can poll more votes in 14 games than the rest of the competition in 22 games.
But if anyone can do it, Ablett can. And remember, the Suns did win eight of those 14 games, when he averaged 34 possessions and 1.8 goals.
He had 30-plus possessions in six of the eight wins so that could be 18 votes. He had 35, 37 and 45 possessions in three losses. Maybe six more.
Suddenly that target of 23 is not so far off.
The biggest thing in Ablett’s favour is that during the mid-season period when the Suns were on fire he was a standout.
At Geelong, Selwood has to contend with Steve Johnson’s proven vote-winning ability.
Similarly, Franklin and Kennedy will split votes at Sydney, Pendlebury and Dayne Beams at Collingwood, and Gray and Travis Boak at Port Adelaide.
Jobe Watson will poll well early before he was injured to threaten a late charge from teammate Dyson Heppell.
Hawthorn’s Jordan Lewis should poll well. But he’s not been a big vote-winner in the past and history tells us players need a near-miss before winning the medal.
West Coast have not won enough games for Priddis to be a chance.
It is impossible to predict, but what I do know is anyone who had a flutter on Ablett at $8 will be smiling.
Originally published as Alastair Lynch: Brownlow Medal most open in years, Gary Ablett strong chance to win
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