Who plays AFLW finals in 2025 as race to November heats up

The AFLW finals race is on, with just 0.2% separating eighth and ninth spot. We’ve crunched the numbers to see who makes the cut and also reveal the difficulty of every club’s run home.

AFLW predicted ladder in 2025.

The race to November is heating up and 11 teams are jostling for eight finals berths.

Can North Melbourne be the first side in AFLW history to go back-to-back? Or will another contender rise up and end the Kangaroos’ unbeaten streak?

Can Carlton crack the top four? Or will St Kilda and West Coast make their AFLW finals debuts?

With three rounds left, we’ve crunched the numbers and come up with our final ladder prediction, including the difficulty of your club’s run home.

The degree of difficulty was calculated by taking the current ladder positions of the three sides your club is yet to play and dividing it by three, meaning a lower number indicates a tough draw.

Here’s who we expect will play finals in 2025.

1. NORTH MELBOURNE 9-0 (331.5%)

Predicted finish: 1st

Degree of difficulty: 4.7 (Hardest)

Can anyone beat North Melbourne? The minor premiership is the Kangaroos to lose after a faultless season so far, North closing in on Geelong’s VFL record of 23 straight wins. With the best percentage in the competition by a long way, North would likely need to lose two of their last three to leave the door ajar for the Hawks to claim top spot. But nobody looks like laying a hand on Darren Crocker’s side at the moment.

REMAINING GAMES

RD10: Adelaide @ Arden Street W

RD11: St Kilda @ North Hobart Oval W

RD12: Hawthorn @ Frankston W

Even while being dragged to ground, McDonagh kicks her second 😤#AFLWHawksSunspic.twitter.com/gJHNbjsQxI

— AFL Women's (@aflwomens) October 11, 2025

2. HAWTHORN 8-1 (129.3%)

Predicted finish: 2nd

Degree of difficulty: 9.3

The Hawks jumped up into the top two at the conclusion of round nine after Melbourne let one slip against Fremantle. But the jury is out on whether Hawthorn is a genuine challenger this year after losing some of its attacking flair. The Hawks are averaging 35.3 points per game so far this season, down from 54.3 last year, and they currently have the lowest points for tally in the top eight. But they’re still in pole position to finish second with two winnable games against Port and Essendon before a litmus test against North in the final round.

REMAINING GAMES

RD10: Port Adelaide @ Alberton Oval W

RD11: Essendon @ Windy Hill W

RD12: North Melbourne @ Frankston L

The Demons leave the field after their close loss to the Dockers. Picture: Getty Images

3. MELBOURNE 7-2 (242.6%)

Predicted finish: 3rd

Degree of difficulty: 7.7

A horror trip to Perth has put a dent in Melbourne’s top two chances and now the Demons might have to navigate the run home without Tayla Harris (suspected broken ribs) and Georgia Gall (ankle). If there’s one area of the ground Melbourne can cover, it’s key forwards with Alyssa Bannan and Eden Zanker forming a powerful one-two punch. All three of Melbourne’s final games are against finals aspirants, but Brisbane at home is the toughest ask.

REMAINING GAMES

RD10: Sydney @ Casey Fields W

RD11: Brisbane @ Brighton Homes Arena L

RD12: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium W

Brisbane are clinging onto fourth spot for now. Picture: Getty Images

4. BRISBANE 6-3 (157.1%)

Predicted finish: 4th

Degree of difficulty: 10.7

The Lions don’t look as fearsome as they once did, but Craig Starcevich’s side knows what it takes to get it done at the business end of the season. Brisbane faces one of the easiest run home of the top four fancies and there’s a slight chance it could leapfrog Melbourne with a couple of potential percentage boosts against Essendon and Collingwood. But fourth looks the likely landing spot for the Lions’ bid to avenge last year’s grand final loss.

REMAINING GAMES

RD10: Essendon @ Windy Hill W

RD11: Melbourne @ Brighton Homes Arena W

RD12: Collingwood @ Victoria Park W

Newman's kick sails past everyone! 😅#AFLWCrowsEaglespic.twitter.com/5Qz5vTGauE

— AFL Women's (@aflwomens) October 11, 2025

5. ADELAIDE 6-3 (128.1%)

Predicted finish: 6th

Degree of difficulty: 8.3

A shock loss to Richmond in round eight has cast some doubts over Adelaide’s credentials, but it’s still hard to see the Crows missing finals from here. North Melbourne at Arden Street is the toughest task in footy at the moment, but it’s backed up by winnable games against Port Adelaide and Fremantle at home.

REMAINING GAMES

RD10: North Melbourne @ Arden Street L

RD11: Port Adelaide @ Norwood Oval W

RD12: Fremantle @ Norwood Oval W

The Blues were well beaten in Sydney. Picture: Getty Images

6. CARLTON 6-3 (107.3%)

Predicted finish: 5th

Degree of difficulty: 10

The big improver of 2025, Carlton remains in the hunt for a top-four finish, but a 39-point loss to Sydney in round nine hurts. The Blues will be hoping Tara Bohanna (foot) and Mimi Hill (calf) will both be fit to return for a mini final against the Saints on Saturday night. But all things being equal, Carlton should return to finals. We think they can win their last three and leapfrog the Crows.

REMAINING GAMES

RD10: St Kilda @ IKON Park W

RD11: GWS @ IKON Park W

RD12: West Coast @ Sullivan Logistics Stadium W

Zippy Xenos seals the result for the Saints 👊#AFLWSaintsPiespic.twitter.com/95DxDQhV01

— AFL Women's (@aflwomens) October 12, 2025

7. ST KILDA 6-3 (105.9%)

Predicted finish: 8th

Degree of difficulty: 6.3

Can the Saints play finals for the first time? One of the most enigmatic sides in the AFLW, Nick Dal Santo’s side faces a mini final against Carlton on Saturday night and you can trust they’ll be up for the fight. It could all come down to the final day of the home and away season against the Western Bulldogs. A win there should sneak them in.

REMAINING GAMES

RD10: Carlton @ IKON Park L

RD11: North Melbourne @ IKON Park L

RD12: Western Bulldogs @ RSEA Park W

The Eagles dropped a crucial game to the Crows. Picture: Getty Images

8. WEST COAST 5-4 (117.2%)

Predicted finish: 9th

Degree of difficulty: 8.3

Daisy Pearce has worked wonders at West Coast in her second season at the helm, but will it culminate in the Eagles’ maiden finals appearance? Every game from here on in is do or die for West Coast, particularly the next fortnight with a couple of eight-point games against the Swans and Geelong. Will that last-gasp loss to Essendon earlier in the season come back to bite?

REMAINING GAMES

RD10: Geelong @ Sullivan Logistics Stadium W

RD11: Sydney @ Henson Park L

RD12: Carlton @ Sullivan Logistics Stadium L

The strength from Lucy McEvoy and the finish from Montana Ham 🤩#AFLWSwansBluespic.twitter.com/iflkoHQtPJ

— AFL Women's (@aflwomens) October 12, 2025

9. SYDNEY 5-4 (117%)

Predicted finish: 7th

Degree of difficulty: 8.3

After a shaky patch in the middle of the season, Sydney got back to its best against Carlton on the weekend. With stars like Chloe Molloy, Montana Ham and Laura Gardiner, the Swans have the list to play finals. But it could all hinge on who wins out of the Swans and Eagles in round 11.

REMAINING GAMES

RD10: Melbourne @ Casey Fields L

RD11: West Coast @ Henson Park W

RD12: Essendon at Coffs Harbour W

The Cats are still in the hunt, just. Picture: Getty Images

10. GEELONG 4-5 (98.8%)

Predicted finish: 11th

Degree of difficulty: 7.7

At their best, the Cats can take it up to anyone. But close losses to Hawthorn (seven points) and Sydney (five points) look set to hurt Geelong’s chances of featuring in November. The Cats would need to win all three to give themselves a look.

REMAINING GAMES

RD10: West Coast @ Sullivan Logistics Stadium L

RD11: Western Bulldogs @ Mars Stadium W

RD12: Melbourne @ GMHBA Stadium L

That is some finish from Stannett and the Dockers are back in front! ⚓️#AFLWFreoDeespic.twitter.com/1XdsAloAVf

— AFL Women's (@aflwomens) October 12, 2025

11. FREMANTLE 4-5 (68.1%)

Predicted finish: 10th

Degree of difficulty: 12.3 (Easiest)

So you’re telling me there’s a chance? Fremantle’s upset win over Melbourne in round nine keeps the dream alive for the Dockers and they should win their next two against GWS and Richmond. But with a terrible percentage, a result of a pair of heavy losses earlier in the year, and a tough match-up against Adelaide in the final round of the season, it’s set to be too little too late for Fremantle.

REMAINING GAMES

RD10: GWS @ Henson Park W

RD11: Richmond @ Fremantle Oval W

RD12: Adelaide @ Norwood Oval L

Originally published as Who plays AFLW finals in 2025 as race to November heats up