AFL trade period: Collingwood may have won the off-season based on moves their rivals didn’t make, writes Jon Ralph

Everyone can be an October champion then a dud the following season but Collingwood might have just won the off-season through the moves their rivals didn’t make.

Lachie Schultz has joined Collingwood. Picture: Michael Klein

The emphatic nature of Collingwood’s premiership triumph meant it had every reason to believe its rivals would take unprecedented measures to immediately bridge the gap.

The Pies had high-priced free agent Dan McStay out injured, lost Nathan Murphy at quarter time, kicked a disastrous 12.18 and still found a way to overcome Brisbane.

The response from rivals aware how quickly they needed to improve was going to be awesome.

With a new pay deal handing rivals millions in cap space, the teams they could put on the park after the trade period and free agency should be fearsome.

Instead after a trade period that promises to be much ado about nothing, they’ve barely put a dent in Collingwood.

Craig McRae and his Magpies should be pleased with how the off-season is playing out. Picture: Getty Images

Sydney is a real watch — Brodie Grundy is a major ruck upgrade and Taylor Adams helps fill a Callum Mills-sized clearance hole.

And if Port Adelaide can give up a bevy of draft picks and a former top 20 pick in Xavier Duursma for Brandon Zerk-Thatcher and Esava Ratugolea, their defence will be much improved from 2023.

But the only thing keeping Craig McRae up at night this fortnight would be newborn Maggie’s cries instead of the shock-and-awe tactics of rivals putting the wind up his premiership side.

When Geelong won the 2022 flag, rivals went all in.

Brisbane brought in the No. 1 pick (Will Ashcroft), Josh Dunkley and Jack Gunston.

The Dogs spent a million bucks a year on Liam Jones and Rory Lobb, the Dockers spent up big on Luke Jackson only weeks after a finals victory over Luke Beveridge’s side.

Port Adelaide invested huge draft collateral on Jason Horne-Francis for the future and $600,000 a year on Junior Rioli for the now.

Collingwood brought in unheralded role players in Bobby Hill, high-profile free agent McStay and Billy Frampton as well as a maligned Brownlow Medallist in Tom Mitchell.

Consider this year’s early premiership markets on TAB as a rough indication of next year’s fortunes.

Collingwood ($5.50) brings in a dynamic forward in Schultz who kicked 33.19 (compared to Adams 13.11), 25 direct score assists, 127 score involvements and 95 tackles.

And keeps Jack Ginnivan and John Noble, with the clear issue whether Charlie Dean or Billy Frampton can stand up at full back if concussions end Nathan Murphy’s career.

The Schultz deal brokered on Monday is slightly overs and yet the Pies give up a future first-rounder which could land at about pick 20 and the same pick they acquired for Taylor Adams from Sydney —No.34.

Lachie Schultz is on his way to Collingwood. Picture: Michael Klein

While still having players with real improvement including Bobby Hill, Ash Johnson, Isaac Quaynor, Finn Macrae, Nathan Kreuger and Ed Allan.

Brisbane ($7) gets back Will Ashcroft (and keeps Dev Robertson and Kai Lohmann) but only brings in a third defender off twin knee reconstructions (Tom Doedee).

Melbourne ($8) loses Brodie Grundy (two All Australians, two Copelands) and replaces him with 19-gamer Tom Fullarton while major question marks have emerged over the future of Clayton Oliver.

And in the same trade period it became apparent if Harrison Petty remains it will be for 12 months — and potentially disgruntled after a trade rejection — until the Demons face a similar decision given his pre-agency status.

Sydney ($9) is a major concern given Grundy is a weapon and Adams averaged seven clearances a game as recently as 2021.

Brodie Grundy is a big addition for Sydney. Picture: Getty Images

GWS ($9) looms large with another pre-season for Adam Kingsley to plot and scheme and yet the only potential acquisitions are injury-prone Orazio Fantasia and Elliot Himmelberg (41 games in seven seasons).

Carlton ($9) is coming hard but will only add Elijah Hollands, Geelong ($15) will lose Esava Ratugolea but go to the draft, while Adelaide ($15) will lose Shane McAdam but likely miss on Petty.

Port Adelaide is the only other contender under $20 in the premiership race.

Richmond has also done very little (Jacob Koschitzke) while Essendon has spent up big but is up against 19 years of history as a non-winner come finals time.

None of it guarantees Collingwood anything. Geelong was flushed with success last summer after the acquisitions of Ollie Henry, Tanner Bruhn and Jack Bowes yet didn’t fire a shot in its premiership defence.

When the dust settles on this trade period the biggest moves made will be a rival adding a ruckman Collingwood jettisoned and an onballer squeezed out of Craig McRae’s best midfield.

Everyone can be an October champion then a dud the following season but the Pies might just have won the off-season through the moves their rivals didn’t make.