AFL Trade: How West Coast call on Carlton and Hawthorn can shape the chase for Chad Warner

West Coast had to choose at the trade deadline whether Carlton or Hawthorn would finish lower in 2025. It was a 50-50 gamble that could unlock the Chad Warner race - did they get it right?

Late in the trade period, the West Coast stats boffins spun the roulette wheel on a 50-50 bet that could impact the chase for Chad Warner.

In the midst of negotiations for Tom Barrass, Hawthorn dressed up like Morpheus from the Matrix – in one hand was the Hawks 2025 first round pick and in the other was the Blues and it was up to the Eagles to pick their path.

West Coast list boss Matt Clarke handed the choice on to his analytics team, tasking them with deciding who was going to finish lower next year, Carlton or Hawthorn.

It’s not an easy decision but the numbers spat out a choice for the brown and gold pill, with Clarke grabbing Hawthorn’s 2025 pick.

Matt Clarke’s team made the big call. Picture: Josh Chadwick/AFL Photos

Tom Barrass’ move forced the West Coast gamble. Picture: Daniel Carson/AFL Photos

The Hawks rode a remarkable wave of momentum this year and Ladbrokes has them as second-favourites for the flag at $8 now they have Barrass and ex-Saint Josh Battle.

Carlton sits just one rung down at $9 and the Blues would say that a clean run of injuries lobs them straight back in the top four.

Just one win split the clubs in this year’s home-and-away season, with Hawthorn finishing seventh and Carlton one spot below.

Hawks list boss Mark McKenzie broke into a wry smile when asked his opinion on the Eagles choosing their future pick over the Blues.

“You’re going to have to ask the Eagles on that one,” he said.

Clarke was duly asked about the call and admitted there was “probably not much of a gap” between the two sides.

Mark McKenzie put both picks on the table. Picture: Josh Chadwick/AFL Photos

Perhaps West Coast just wanted to keep it simple next year in who to barrack against – the Eagles also hold Hawthorn’s second and third round choices.

“You want to have a look at trying to forecast. It is really hard where clubs are going to finish next year. We did a bit of work with our analytics team as to what that would look like,” Clarke said.

“They are both going to be pretty good next year so it was line ball.”

The ramifications on Sydney’s ballwinning ace Warner will be watched all of next year.

The Perth clubs will have their fingers crossed over the next 12 months that he decides to leave Sydney and return home, kicking the Chad chase into overdrive.

If Warner did leave, he would warrant a blockbuster deal, with three clubs questioned about the position of the dynamic midfielder on trade deadline day.

Right now, West Coast has the better hand.

The Eagles have their own pick – expected to be again in the top five – as the Dockers try and burst into the premiership window.

And now they have Hawthorn’s too.

If the Hawks don’t deliver on the promise of 2024, that could be in the top-10, or they could make the top four and the pick slides a long way down.

Clubs are already lining up for Chad Warner. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos

It is the same position with Carlton’s future first, which could slot almost anywhere.

Holding two top-10 picks would put West Coast well ahead of Fremantle to offer as many as four first-rounders.

From next year teams can trade picks two years in advance, so West Coast could stump up two picks in 2025 and another one each in 2026 and 2027.

The Eagles weren’t the only club to gamble at the trade table.

Essendon made a shrewd move to swap pick nine for Melbourne’s 2025 first and a bunch of other late picks to get in pole position for academy forward Isaac Kako.

The Demons would expect to bounce back into finals next year and for that pick to be into the teens but Melbourne didn’t plan to end up so low they had pick five this year.

If the wheels truly fall off at Melbourne, the Dons will be sitting pretty.

Gold Coast has Port Adelaide and Collingwood’s future firsts and inevitably will open the doors to trading juicy choices once again next year, with the Suns preparing for academy prospects Zeke Uwland and Beau Addinsall.

Collingwood knows all about this risks, having lost bets on Lachie Schultz – the pick handed out for him currently sits with Richmond at No.11 – and in a trade with GWS.

The future pick sent out in late 2020 became No.2 in 2021.