AFL tipping: Round 1 expert tips revealed

Tipsters are in for a tough start to the 2023 season with a host of 50-50 games to open the home-and-away season. See who our experts have locked in here.

Ultimate AFL tipping guide 1

It’s shaping as one of the closest opening rounds in AFL history.

From the Richmond-Carlton blockbuster on Thursday to the Ross Lyon cup between St Kilda and Fremantle, every match presents a reason to be excited — unless you’re a tipster.

Almost every match shapes as a genuine 50-50, making it a tough start to the tipping campaign.

But, with the help of our experts, you can gain an edge.

Read every experts’ tips below, plus our five step guide on how to win your tipping competition.

ROUND 1 EXPERT TIPS

Jane Bunn

Richmond 10

Geelong 15

North Melbourne 10

Brisbane Lions 21

Melbourne 16

Sydney 12

GWS Giants 9

Essendon 13

Fremantle 11

Sally Capp

Richmond 12

Collingwood 6

North Melbourne 10

Port Adelaide 9

Western Bulldogs 6

Sydney 15

GWS Giants 18

Hawthorn 12

Fremantle 15

Chris Cavanagh

Richmond 12

Geelong 6

West Coast 1

Brisbane 12

Melbourne 12

Sydney 12

Adelaide 1

Essendon 6

Fremantle 12

Daniel Cherny

Carlton 15

Geelong 7

West Coast 26

Brisbane Lions 16

Melbourne 29

Sydney 22

GWS Giants 14

Essendon 13

Fremantle 27

Jay Clark

Richmond 6

Geelong 10

West Coast 15

Brisbane Lions 12

Melbourne 1

Sydney Swans 9

GWS 18

Essendon 8

Fremantle 24

Graham Cornes

Carlton 12

Collingwood 6

North Melbourne 8

Port Adelaide 6

Melbourne 15

Sydney 16

GWS Giants 6

Essendon 12

St Kilda 18

Scott Gullan

Richmond 2

Geelong 7

West Coast 8

Port Adelaide 3

Western Bulldogs 1

Gold Coast 4

GWS Giants 5

Hawthorn 1

Fremantle 17

Ben Harvey

Carlton 6

Geelong 6

West Coast 12

Port Adelaide 9

Melbourne 11

Sydney 14

GWS Giants 8

Essendon 6

Fremantle 16

Sarah Jones

Carlton 3

Geelong 20

West Coast 10

Brisbane Lions 7

Melbourne 13

Sydney 5

GWS Giants 19

Essendon 3

Fremantle 14

David King

Richmond 1

Collingwood 2

North Melbourne 3

Brisbane Lions 10

Melbourne 20

Sydney 1

Adelaide 3

Essendon 2

Fremantle 25

Sam Landsberger

Richmond 10

Collingwood 6

North Melbourne 6

Brisbane Lions 12

Melbourne 18

Sydney 12

GWS Giants 21

Essendon 16

Fremantle 12

Kath Loughnan

Richmond 12

Geelong 6

West Coast 16

Brisbane Lions 10

Melbourne 11

Sydney 19

Adelaide 14

Hawthorn 9

Fremantle 11

Mick Malthouse

Carlton 7

Geelong 1

West Coast 3

Brisbane Lions 22

Melbourne 14

Sydney 1

GWS Giants 18

Essendon 5

Fremantle 13

Ebony Marinoff

Richmond

Geelong

West Coast

Brisbane Lions

Melbourne

Sydney

Adelaide

Essendon

St Kilda

Glenn McFarlane

Carlton 2

Collingwood 1

North Melbourne 6

Brisbane Lions 5

Melbourne 7

Sydney 4

GWS Giants 9

Essendon 10

Fremantle 15

Mick McGuane

Richmond 5

Collingwood 7

West Coast 11

Brisbane Lions 16

Melbourne 9

Sydney 14

Adelaide 7

Essendon 4

Fremantle 20

Chloe Molloy

Richmond

Geelong

North Melbourne

Brisbane Lions

Melbourne

Sydney

Adelaide

Essendon

Fremantle

Al Paton

Richmond 11

Geelong 7

North Melbourne 18

Brisbane Lions 27

Melbourne 15

Sydney 30

GWS Giants 10

Essendon 20

Fremantle 12

Jon Ralph

Carlton 5

Geelong 3

North Melbourne 3

Brisbane Lions 2

Melbourne 6

Gold Coast 4

GWS Giants 18

Essendon 2

Fremantle 13

Mark Robinson

Richmond 12

Collingwood 15

North Melbourne 2

Brisbane Lions 14

Western Bulldogs 8

Sydney 17

GWS Giants 11

Essendon 18

Fremantle 22

Heath Shaw

Richmond 12

Geelong 6

West Coast 6

Brisbane Lions 11

Melbourne 15

Sydney 17

GWS Giants 11

Essendon 18

Fremantle 10

Simeon Thomas-Wilson

Richmond 12

Geelong 3

North Melbourne 7

Brisbane Lions 20

Melbourne 15

Sydney 25

Adelaide 8

Essendon 30

Fremantle 11

Matt Turner

Carlton 8

Geelong 12

North Melbourne 15

Port Adelaide 10

Melbourne 22

Sydney 24

Adelaide 30

Essendon 17

Fremantle 10

Gerard Whateley

Carlton 1

Geelong 3

West Coast 10

Brisbane Lions 6

Melbourne 2

Sydney 12

GWS Giants 4

Essendon 7

Fremantle 20

Rebecca Williams

Carlton 8

Geelong 9

West Coast 5

Brisbane Lions 10

Melbourne 7

Sydney 9

Adelaide 8

Essendon 7

Fremantle 5

Lauren Wood

Richmond 17

Geelong 7

West Coast 14

Brisbane Lions 10

Melbourne 13

Sydney 17

GWS Giants 13

Essendon 6

Fremantle 11

Kiss of Death

Carlton 13

Collingwood 13

West Coast 13

Port Adelaide 13

Western Bulldogs 13

Gold Coast 13

Adelaide 13

Hawthorn 13

St Kilda 13

Jeremy Cameron celebrates a goal in last year’s qualifying final against Collingwood.

Mark Bickley

Richmond

Geelong

North Melbourne

Brisbane Lions

Melbourne

Sydney

Adelaide

Essendon

Fremantle

Andrew Capel

Richmond

Geelong

West Coast

Brisbane Lions

Melbourne

Sydney

GWS Giants

Essendon

Fremantle

Graham Cornes

Carlton

Collingwood

North Melbourne

Port Adelaide

Melbourne

Sydney

GWS Giants

Essendon

St Kilda

Darren Lehmann

Richmond

Geelong

North Melbourne

Port Adelaide

Melbourne

Sydney

Adelaide

Essendon

Fremantle

Courtney Cramey

Richmond

Geelong

North Melbourne

Brisbane Lions

Melbourne

Sydney

Adelaide

Essendon

Fremantle

Tippah Dwan

Carlton

Geelong

West Coast

Brisbane Lions

Melbourne

Sydney

Adelaide

Hawthorn

Fremantle

Gemma Houghton

Carlton

Geelong

West Coast

Port Adelaide

Melbourne

Sydney

GWS Giants

Essendon

Fremantle

John Letts

Richmond

Geelong

North Melbourne

Brisbane Lions

Melbourne

Sydney

GWS Giants

Essendon

St Kilda

Clare Lindop

Carlton

Geelong

North Melbourne

Port Adelaide

Melbourne

Sydney

GWS Giants

Hawthorn

St Kilda

Brett Maher

Richmond

Geelong

North Melbourne

Brisbane Lions

Melbourne

Sydney

GWS Giants

Essendon

Fremantle

The Phantom

Carlton

Collingwood

North Melbourne

Brisbane Lions

Melbourne

Sydney

Adelaide

Essendon

Fremantle

Mark Soderstrom

Richmond

Geelong

West Coast

Port Adelaide

Melbourne

Sydney

GWS Giants

Hawthorn

St Kilda

Rachael Sporn

Richmond

Geelong

North Melbourne

Port Adelaide

Melbourne

Sydney

GWS Giants

Hawthorn

St Kilda

Carl Veart

Carlton

Geelong

West Coast

Port Adelaide

Melbourne

Sydney

GWS Giants

Hawthorn

St Kilda

Scott Walsh

Richmond

Geelong

North Melbourne

Brisbane Lions

Melbourne

Sydney

GWS Giants

Essendon

Fremantle

OUR FIVE-STEP GUIDE TO WINNING YOUR TIPPING COMPETITION

Lauren Wood

The AFL season is just days away, and with footy comes the thing that can strike fear into every heart – footy tipping.

Even the most casual of footy fans will get drawn into a tipping competition, but how can you avoid embarrassment and even challenge for top spot?

Here are five tips to take you from a best guess player to a tipping expert.

HEAD OVER HEART … BUT GUT ALWAYS WINS

If we’re running a ladder here, it has to go 1. Gut, 2. Head, 3. Heart. Don’t get lured in by a heartwarming return or a fairytale story – cast aside romance, and particularly your own team – and always make tipping a rational process. There’s room for risks, but calculated ones. And, like in life – unless it’s a few hours after a dodgy dish or two – always listen to your gut. “The vibe” is a great bragging point after the fact, too, which is almost as great a feeling in the group chat as adding a valuable point to your tipping tally.

Pillar number 2: Stick to your Guns like Max Gawn. Picture: AFL Photos via Getty Images

STICK TO YOUR GUNS

Having found this one out the hard way a few times, can only suggest to pick your winner and stick to it. Pre-game pump ups and analysis in the moments before the bounce can do their best to influence just about any tipper, but stoicism is key here. As the great tipster, Confucius, once said – change your tip for the game and live with the shame. Regret nothing.

Pillar number three: Cool and calm will often trump chaos. Toby Greene. Picture: Phil Hillyard

LIKE A FINE WINE

Experience counts for plenty, so if there’s a game where an argument can be made for both side’s chances, it’s worth checking out the age and games-played profile for each team. Champion Data statistics show that teams with more experience will – more often than not – take away the four points. This is particularly the case in close games, where cool and calm will often trump the chaos.

Pillar number four: Home is where the heart is – like GMHBA Stadium for Geelong. Picture: Getty Images

HOME IS WHERE THE HEART IS

Ah, home, sweet home. It’s a tried and tested method employed by many a tipper, but there’s firm reasoning behind that. When it doubt, tip the home team. For some teams in particular – like Geelong, Hawthorn and West Coast who all have a strike rate of over 65 per cent at home – it can mean a marked difference. The Cats have won 82 per cent of their games at home, compared with just 57 per cent as the away team. The numbers don’t lie.

Pillar number five: You’ve got to read to lead. Picture: Getty Images

TODAY A READER, TOMORROW A (TIPPING) LEADER

Knowledge is power. Being across the news – via News Corp, of course – throughout the week can pay off as opposed to lobbing in at 7.15pm on a Thursday night and quickly submitting selections. Tribunal, teams, injuries – it all counts towards the dossier to draw upon come the weekend’s matches.