AFL Rich 100: The biggest salary cap questions across the AFL landscape
Charlie Curnow is set for a major payrise at the conclusion of his current contract so how do the Blues fit him under the salary cap with his star forward-line partner?
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Hawthorn has a $2 million cheque in its pocket with no names on it.
And it is a treasure chest which is going to give coach Sam Mitchell, who inherited a list with not a lot of movement in it last year, the ultimate flexibility to put a big stamp on his squad.
The Hawks may not make many moves again this season, other than potentially losing Jack Gunston to Brisbane and move on Liam Shiels.
But it is at the end of 2023 when three of their biggest names come out of contract in Chad Wingard, Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara that the Hawks could clear up to $2 million in salary cap room to go shopping.
And the work on that list management strategy would already be happening now.
That is not to be disrespectful to Wingard, Mitchell and O’Meara but the reality is if those three players all stay they face significant pay cuts to stay at Waverley beyond 2023, clearing a lot of cash.
According to the Herald Sun’s Rich 100, they earn in the vicinity of $700,000-$850,000 on big-money contracts which all expire next year, putting Hawthorn in the position to get aggressive, perhaps like Collingwood did after its 2020 cleanse, when it let go Adam Treloar, Jaidyn Stephenson and Tom Phillips.
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O’Meara, Wingard and Mitchell all lobbed at Hawthorn to win a flag under Alastair Clarkson but fell short, and over the next 12 months face interesting conversations about their futures as they hit veteran status.
Luke Breust and Gunston, who is weighing up a move to Brisbane, and Shiels all face similar chats this year.
From the outside, Hawthorn’s premiership window looks set to open around 2026.
That would be the plan, or close to it.
So you can rule out a big play on Collingwood’s Brodie Grundy and consider Hawthorn keen to make moves on youngster stars from about 2024 onwards.
When it comes to playing moneyball, the Hawks are among the best in the business, but anything must tie-in with the 2026 premiership sweet spot.
Similarly, Richmond is looking at a significant transition as Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt look set to broker new deals with the club on reduced terms, saving the Tigers cash to splash on keeping Shai Bolton and targeting Tim Taranto.
Dion Prestia is also in the Rich 100 on about $700,000 a year as part of a deal to 2024. Tom Lynch is on about $1million this year as part of a back-ended deal which is locked in until the end of 2025.
Bolton is looking at arguably the biggest pays rise in the game when he inks a new contract worth about $900,000 a season (is he worth even more?) after coming in at No. 99 in the Rich List on $550,000 - $650,000 a year.
Currently, he looks like one of the most damaging players in the game, and will be handsomely rewarded.
Bolton is one player in the game who can safely start planning the renovations on his house, now.
Richmond has the highest-paid player in the game in Dustin Martin on a considerable seven-figure salary and Sydney Swans continue to say they aren’t talking to the Tigers about a deal, but Gold Coast would have an interest, if Martin is still fully motivated.
Understandably the death of his father, and best friend, Shane, has had a huge toll. Football may not matter as much to Martin without his best mate and biggest supporter. He may need time to deal with it all and the Tigers have had his back the whole way.
Like Bolton, Carlton’s Charlie Curnow is looking at a similar pay rise from the $600,000 - $700,000 range to at least the $900,000-plus bracket, as Carlton work out how to combine boosts for Curnow and McKay in the same salary cap.
McKay is on $700,000- $800,000 and will similarly target a near seven-figure wage as two of the best key forwards in the game, who can spearhead the club towards a premiership.
The best the Blues can hope for is those two superstar goal kickers have a pact to stay, and like inspirational captain Patrick Cripps, would be prepared to take a little less than their open market value to spearhead Carlton’s premiership charge.
Curnow was No. 85 on the Rich List but has capacity to enter the top-10 in two years’ time, along with McKay. They both are off contract and star free agents next year.
How the Blues manage the finer points of the forwards’ salary, in addition to Cripps, Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh will be a challenge as chief executive Brian Cook recently admitted. Walsh could be winning Brownlows soon.
Geelong and Hawthorn have repeatedly convinced its players to take unders to stay in the premiership frame and Carlton – led by former Cat Cook - will hope to pull off the same magic trick at Ikon Park.
Perhaps Mitch McGovern, at No. 67 on $650,000 – $750,000 this year, takes a big cut after arriving on huge money. Jack Martin has three more years to run on his deal at about $600,000 a season.
There would be headaches at Moorabbin as Brett Ratten’s men decide whether to zig or zag on a list management strategy which has seen the club top-up on a host of some mature-age players.
Bradley Hill came in at No. 12 on the Rich List on a whopper of a contract worth about $850,000 - $950,000 this year and may be tempted by the lure to join forces with Alastair Clarkson at his new club for a second time.
At Hawthorn and Fremantle, Hill built a reputation as one of the hardest-running and most damaging wingmen in the game, who won three flags under Clarkson and a best and fairest under Ross Lyon at the Dockers.
But since accepting a monster deal at St Kilda to come across to Victoria, his form line has been more up and down, to the point where Hill admitted he wasn’t enjoying the game anymore at the peak of the public criticism.
He was highly paid, after signing a brilliant deal, and has three years remaining on his contract at Moorabbin.
But with North Melbourne in the hunt for mature-age talent, it would be no shock to see Clarkson dangle a carrot, after catching up with Hill earlier in the year, perhaps more as mates than anything else.
St Kilda would be the driver’s seat on any deal and would be reluctant to give him away for a second-round pick unless the club wanted to clear some salary cap space, after topping up in a big way.
It has helped elevate the Saints from a bottom-side to a mid-tier side, but now what?
They have taken Brad Crouch, Zak Jones, Dan Butler, Dougal Howard, Daniel Hannebery, Paddy Ryder and Dean Kent to help get the team back up the ladder, but as Ratten flagged this week, list changes loom. Is it back to the draft in a big way?
The Saints seem at a crossroads of sorts after missing the finals for the second year in a row.
It is why the futures of Seb Ross, Jack Billings and Hill may come up for discussion in the lead-up to this year’s trade period.
Do they have enough elite young talent to compliment Max King, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Hunter Clark? Clearly not.
Jordan De Goey is different as he is a free agent, meaning the Saints don’t have to part with a pick to land the dynamic midfielder. He is the free hit.
But has the Hill to St Kilda move worked? He had 11 possessions against Brisbane on Friday night after 26 the week before against the Cats and 15 against Hawthorn in Round 20.
He is 29, and remains on good money at the Saints.
It is, after all, shaping up as the year of the trade curve ball, with Grundy and Lance Franklin’s futures up in the air.
Grundy also has five more years to run on his monster $950,000-a-year contract, but the Magpies are open to off-loading him, in part, in exchange for Brisbane’s Dan McStay and GWS goal kicker Tim Taranto, and speedster Bobby Hill.
Grundy comes in at No. 5 on the Rich List, and Collingwood would have to pay, say, $250,000 a year of contract to move him on to either Melbourne or Geelong.
It is clear Collingwood and GWS Giants are recalibrating their salary cap, and Hawthorn look set to do something similar next year when some of their most highly-paid players come off contract.
It might have been a quiet trade period last year, but things have changed dramatically in 12 months.
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