AFL Predicted Ladder: Where your club could sit after first six rounds of 2024

Essendon should win its round 1 clash against Hawthorn – but the following five matches will really tell us how far the new-look Bombers have come. See our predicted ladder.

Getting away to a good start can provide a lot of valuable momentum for sides.

Equally, a poor start can set the tone for a difficult season.

We’ve taken a look at every club’s first six games to see what the ladder might look like after round 6 — and why.

ADELAIDE

OR: Bye
R1: Gold Coast @ HBS (L)
R2: Geelong @ AO (W)
R3: Fremantle @OS (W)
R4: Melbourne @ AO (L)
R5: Carlton @ Marvel (L)
R6: Essendon @ AO (W)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 3-3

The Crows missed finals by just one game last season and shape as a leading contender to make the leap and return to September for the first time since 2017. Wins on the road were hard to come by last season, with the Crows going 2-8 when interstate. They will want to make a statement to start the year on the Gold Coast — but that might be easier said than done. It’s also hard to see them beating Carlton at Marvel Stadium. He’d like more, but out-of-contract coach Matthew Nicks would probably take a 3-3 start as something to build on.

Matthew Nicks could do with a good start for the Crows. Picture: Getty Images

BRISBANE LIONS

OR: Carlton @ Gabba (W)
R1: Fremantle @ OS (W)
R2: Bye
R3: Collingwood @ Gabba (W)
R4: North Melbourne @ Norwood (W)
R5 Melbourne @ MCG (L)
R6: Geelong @ Gabba (W)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 5-1

Last year’s runners-up looks like being a football force again this year, having maintained their list over the off-season. The Lions have won 42 of their past 47 matches at the Gabba since the start of 2020, including going 13-0 last season. They shouldn’t have a problem taking down expected bottom-six sides Fremantle and North Melbourne on the road early in the season, but Melbourne at the MCG could be a stumbling block.

CARLTON

OR: Brisbane @ Gabba (L)
R1: Richmond @ MCG (W)
R2: Bye
R3: North Melbourne @ Marvel (W)
R4: Fremantle @ AO (W)
R5: Adelaide @ Marvel (W)
R6: GWS Giants @ Marvel (W)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 5-1

The Blues ran out of steam in a preliminary final loss to the Lions last year. They get their chance for revenge in Opening Round, but won’t be favoured at a venue where Brisbane went 13-0 last season. Opportunities await after that to get on a roll, though. Carlton’s following four opponents all missed finals last year. These Blues are the real deal and should set themselves up to record a top-four finish for the first time since 2000.

Charlie Curnow’s Carlton side is capable of flexing its muscle early in the season. Picture: Michael Klein

COLLINGWOOD

OR: GWS Giants @ GS (L)
R1: Sydney @ MCG (W)
R2: St Kilda @ MCG (W)
R3: Brisbane @ Gabba (L)
R4: Hawthorn @ AO (W)
R5: Bye
R6: Port Adelaide @ MCG (W)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 4-2

We should have learnt by now to never doubt these Magpies. But it looms as a testing opening month for the reigning premiers. GWS only fell one point short of Collingwood in the preliminary final last year, while Brisbane lost the Grand Final by four points. Both those finals were at the MCG, but the early contests against those two sides this year are both interstate — which could present greater challenges.

ESSENDON

OR: Bye
R1: Hawthorn @ MCG (W)
R2: Sydney @ SCG (L)
R3: St Kilda @ Marvel (W)
R4: Port Adelaide @ AO (L)
R5: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel (L)
R6: Adelaide @ AO (L)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 2-4

In their second year under coach Brad Scott, the Bombers should be better. But it’s not exactly an easy start. Essendon thumped Hawthorn by 59 points in round 1 last year and will be favoured to get the points again there. But three of the Bombers’ following five matches are interstate against reasonable opponents. It wouldn’t shock if they pinched one of those, but it’s hard to pencil in one just yet. We need to see some defensive improvement before we get too excited about Essendon.

Essendon’s defence should be helped by the arrival of Ben McKay. Picture: Brendan Beckett

FREMANTLE

OR: Bye
R1: Brisbane Lions @ OS (L)
R2: North Melbourne @ Marvel (L)
R3: Adelaide @ OS (L)
R4: Carlton @ AO (L)
R5: Port Adelaide @ AO (L)
R6: West Coast @ OS (W)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 1-5

It shapes as another tough year for the Dockers, who finished 14th last season after winning just four of their final 12 games. In the first five weeks, they face three finalists from last year and an Adelaide side which just missed September action. Fremantle lost to North Melbourne in round 2 last year — and that match was in Perth. The heat will be incredibly high on out-of-contract coach Justin Longmuir if his side is winless heading into the Western Derby in round 6.

GEELONG

OR: Bye
R1: St Kilda @ GMHBA (W)
R2: Adelaide @ AO (L)
R3: Hawthorn @ MCG (W)
R4: Western Bulldogs @ AO (W)
R5: North Melbourne @ GMHBA (W)
R6: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (L)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 4-2

Hard to know what to make of the Cats. They finished 12th on the ladder last season — their lowest placing since 2003. But a lot of their best players missed matches through injury and they only lost four games by more than 24 points. Knocking off Geelong at GMHBA Stadium remains a difficult task for opposition sides and the Cats thumped rival Hawthorn by 82 points on Easter Monday last year. Therefore, Chris Scott’s side could get away to a reasonable start.

Jeremy Cameron’s Geelong is still a tough team to topple at home. Picture: Mark Stewart

GOLD COAST SUNS

OR: Richmond @ HBS (W)
R1: Adelaide @ HBS (W)
R2: Western Bulldogs @ Mars (L)
R3: Bye
R4: GWS @ Mt Barker (L)
R5: Hawthorn @ HBS (W)
R6: Sydney @ SCG (L)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 3-3

It’s always hard to read the future when a team gets a new coach in — especially when it’s a three-time premiership coach like Damien Hardwick. Expect the Suns to improve on last year’s nine-win season, but will it happen right away? Hardwick will know which leavers to pull against his old club in Opening Round and if the Suns are serious about playing finals this year they should also be beating Adelaide and Hawthorn at home. But the away matches look a little trickier. Gold Coast copped heavy losses to GWS and Sydney last year.

GWS GIANTS

OR: Collingwood @ GIANTS (W)
R1: North Melbourne @ GIANTS (W)
R2: West Coast @ OS (W)
R3: Bye
R4: Gold Coast @ Mt Barker (W)
R5: St Kilda @ Manuka (W)
R6: Carlton @ Marvel (L)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 5-1

Surprise packets last season as they surged to a preliminary final, the Giants don’t look like dropping off. Strangely enough, Adam Kingsley’s side went 5-6 in home matches at Giants Stadium and Manuka Oval last season, but had an 8-6 record when playing interstate. Having said that, they will be keen for revenge in Opening Round against a Collingwood side they lost to by one point in last year’s preliminary final. After that there are three games against bottom-four sides from last year, which should set GWS up nicely to start the year.

HAWTHORN

OR: Bye
R1: Essendon @ MCG (L)
R2: Melbourne @ MCG (L)
R3: Geelong @ MCG (L)
R4: Collingwood @ AO (L)
R5: Gold Coast @ HBS (L)
R6: North Melbourne @ Marvel (W)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 1-5

The Hawks showed great signs of development in the second half of last season, scoring upset wins over eventual Grand Finalists Collingwood and Brisbane Lions. But don’t forget that overall they scored only four wins against sides other than North Melbourne and West Coast in 2023. Yes, the Hawks have added to their list over the off-season and should be better for it. But we need to see some consistency of performance week-to-week before we can start tipping them for too many wins and some injury woes won’t help early in the season.

Can Max Gawn and the Demons hold the cup up again? Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos

MELBOURNE

OR: Sydney @ SCG (L)
R1: Western Bulldogs @ MCG (W)
R2: Hawthorn @ MCG (W)
R3: Port Adelaide @ AO (L)
R4: Adelaide @ AO (W)
R5: Brisbane Lions @ MCG (W)
R6: Bye
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 4-2

They bombed out of finals in straight sets last season, but the Demons had been a clear top-four team throughout the home-and-away campaign. Remember, too, that the two September losses to Collingwood and Carlton came by a combined margin of nine points. Some unavailability of key players in the opening few weeks could hurt, but the Demons would like their chances of making a strong start to the season as they search for more success following their premiership triumph in 2021.

NORTH MELBOURNE

OR: Bye
R1: GWS @ GIANTS (L)
R2: Fremantle @ Marvel (W)
R3: Carlton @ Marvel (L)
R4: Brisbane Lions @ AO (L)
R5: Geelong @ GMHBA (L)
R6: Hawthorn @ Marvel (L)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 1-5

There’s no doubt that North Melbourne’s list is quickly improving, with plenty of top-end draft talent arriving at Arden St over recent years. This is a club which also has master coach Alastair Clarkson back at the helm. However, the Kangaroos are still very young and are going to need time to put it all together. There are obvious strengths through the midfield and forward line, but there are also major weaknesses around the key defence and ruck stocks. The Roos have been working on their team defence over the off-season, but that will need to be first class if they are to score multiple wins early in the year.

PORT ADELAIDE

OR: Bye
R1: West Coast @ AO (W)
R2: Richmond @ MCG (W)
R3: Melbourne @ AO (W)
R4: Essendon @ AO (W)
R5: Fremantle @ AO (W)
R6: Collingwood @ MCG (L)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 5-1

The Power have a prime opportunity to flex their collective muscle early in the season and get a jump on the rest of the competition. The team which finished third on the table last year has been fixture four of its first five games at Adelaide Oval — where it went 10-2 in 2023. Port Adelaide also tackles only one fellow finalist from last season in its first five outings, before the big challenge of reigning premier Collingwood at the MCG.

Adem Yze coaching against Collingwood on Tuesday night. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos

RICHMOND

OR: Gold Coast @ HBS (L)
R1: Carlton @ MCG (L)
R2: Port Adelaide @ MCG (L)
R3: Sydney @ MCG (W)
R4: St Kilda @ Norwood (L)
R5: West Coast @ OS (W)
R6: Bye
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 2-4

The glory days are now a distant memory. The Tigers have sung the AFL’s best team song just 32 times from 68 outings since their 2020 premiership triumph. Expect this to be another transition year under new coach Adem Yze, as young cubs take the reins from some of the premiership heroes. Gold Coast has been a problem side for Richmond in recent years and could be even more so now Damien Hardwick is in charge up north. Then comes a pair of top-five sides from last year in Carlton and Port Adelaide in a very tricky start for Yze.

ST KILDA

OR: Bye
R1: Geelong @ GMHBA (L)
R2: Collingwood @ MCG (L)
R3: Essendon @ Marvel (L)
R4: Richmond @ Norwood (W)
R5: GWS @ Manuka (L)
R6: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel (W)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 2-4

Coach Ross Lyon wasn’t thrilled in December when a host of this masthead’s footy writers tipped the Saints to slide out of the top-eight in 2024. But the popular opinion is that maybe St Kilda overachieved last year and other sides look primed to jump them. We should know whether Lyon’s men are contenders or pretenders by round 6, given they have five early matches against teams who finished in the middle part of the ladder — from 7th to 13th — last season.

SYDNEY

OR: Melbourne @ SCG (W)
R1: Collingwood @ MCG (L)
R2: Essendon @ SCG (W)
R3: Richmond @ MCG (L)
R4: West Coast @ Mt Barker (W)
R5: Bye
R6: Gold Coast @ SCG (W)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 4-2

Will it be a bounce-back year for Sydney? After losing the Grand Final in 2022, the Swans only just scraped into September last year and were eliminated by Carlton in the first week. But they should be better this season, bolstered by the additions of Brodie Grundy and Taylor Adams. Unusually, the Swans scored only five wins and a draw from 11 matches at the SCG last season. However, two of the losses came by two points of less. If they can reinforce what was once a fortress, they should score a few early wins.

WEST COAST

OR: Bye
R1: Port Adelaide @ AO (L)
R2: GWS @ OS (L)
R3: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel (L)
R4: Sydney @ Mt Barker (L)
R5: Richmond @ OS (L)
R6: Fremantle @ OS (L)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 0-6

Last year’s wooden spoon winner is a favourite to suffer the same fate once again. As much as the Eagles were crippled by injury last year, their list is in a transition period and it is going to take time before they are regularly winning games once again. West Coast faces three finalists from 2023 in its first four games, along with a Western Bulldogs side which finished ninth. Games against Richmond and Fremantle at Optus Stadium will present better opportunities to sing the team song, but you couldn’t bank on it.

Luke Beveridge’s Bulldogs are an intriguing side this year. Picture: Michael Klein.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

OR: Bye
R1: Melbourne @ MCG (L)
R2: Gold Coast @ Mars (W)
R3: West Coast @ Marvel (W)
R4: Geelong @ AO (L)
R5: Essendon @ Marvel (W)
R6: St Kilda @ Marvel (L)
AFTER SIX ROUNDS: 3-3

The Bulldogs are so capable, yet are sometimes so poor. Since reaching the Grand Final in 2021, this side has won 24 of 46 matches — a record of 52 per cent. Having missed finals last year, the heat is right on. There has been an overhaul of the football department and coaching group around Luke Beveridge over the off-season, in the hope of changing fortunes. Of the first six opponents, only Melbourne and St Kilda finished above the Bulldogs last season. Problem is, these Bulldogs are hard to trust. They lost to wooden spoon winner West Coast at Marvel Stadium in round 23 last year — a result which ultimately cost them a finals spot.