AFL news 2024: The reasons behind Sydney Swans’ fall from premiership favouritism
Sydney’s drop off has been dramatic, going from a 13-1 team and looking unstoppable, to winning just one of its past six games. MATTHEW FORREST unpacks what’s gone wrong.
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The AFL has a new premiership favourite, and its fifth of the 2024 season.
Brisbane has overtaken Sydney in the odds for the flag after a 112-point demolition by Port Adelaide.
While the Swans still sit on top of the ladder, their horror run of form in the past six weeks has caused them to lose their chokehold on the competition.
The Lions have now joined Sydney, Collingwood, Carlton, and the Giants as premiership favourites this season, with Brisbane’s winning streak set to propel them into a home qualifying final.
Sydney’s drop off has been dramatic, going from a 13-1 team and looking unstoppable, to winning just one of its past six games.
Their dynamic midfield, led by Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden and Chad Warner, looks a shell of its former self, and Saturday night’s game against the Power looks like a nail in the coffin for their premiership credentials.
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THE UNWANTED RECORD
Sydney will have to defy history if they are to win the premiership this year.
Only one team has ever lost a home-and-away game by 100 points or more and gone on to win the premiership.
Carlton, way back in 1945, lost to Essendon by 100 points at Windy Hill in round 3.
The Blues went on to win the premiership by 28 points against South Melbourne.
The 112-point drubbing by Port Adelaide would also be the second-biggest loss ever for an eventual minor premier, if Sydney holds onto top spot.
North Melbourne suffered a 150-point loss to Fitzroy in round 13, 1983 but went on to secure the minor premiership that year.
Also, the loss is currently the eighth-largest defeat for an eventual finalist, with it the biggest since the Roos lost to Hawthorn by 115 points in 2012.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
Opposing sides have figured out a way to nullifying Sydney’s greatest strength: its explosiveness through the midfield.
Isaac Heeney had one of the all-time great starts to a season after John Longmire moved him into the midfield, propelling the Swans to a devastating start to the season.
The Swans were without captain Callum Mills and former captain Luke Parker, who were both recovering from separate bouts of surgery.
Heeney’s midfield move worked wonders for the Swans, as did the recruitment of former Demon Brodie Grundy and ex-Magpie Taylor Adams.
Heeney averaged 28 touches, 7.4 clearances, 5.8 inside 50s, 5.8 marks, and 1.6 goals per game across the opening five rounds of the season.
The Swans’ explosive run-and-carry from the midfield into attack, with Heeney, Gulden and Warner pushing forward and being goal threats, was killing teams.
Heeney booted 21 goals in the first 13 games of the season, going goalless just once in that time.
Warner had slotted 24 majors in the same period, with again just one goalless game, while Gulden had 10 goals.
In the six games since the Sydney Derby win in round 15, Heeney has kicked three goals, Warner has booted five and Gulden has just two.
The midfield’s attacking threat has been nullified, leaving their reliance on goals to the young, inconsistent duo of Logan McDonald and Joel Amartey.
The drop-off in production from the midfield trio has translated onto the scoreboard too.
Sydney had broken the 100-point barrier in 10 of its first 14 games, but just once (138 against North Melbourne) in the six weeks since.
Amartey has kicked 35 goals this season but nine of them came in the win over Adelaide in round 14, and he’s kicked just four goals since.
MAGNET MOVES
Sydney fans were begging to see Luke Parker back in the side when he recovered from his fractured arm.
Instead he toiled away in the VFL as the Swans were surging through the season.
Reluctant to make a change, Longmire made him wait for an opening, with the team fully fit and firing.
A high bump landed him a six-week ban in the VFL, but he made his AFL return as the substitute in round 18 against North Melbourne.
In a bit less than a half of football, Parker had 13 touches, six tackles and four clearances.
Since his return, Parker has played a full game of football just once (round 19 v Brisbane), and has been the starting sub three times.
Parker is a less explosive, more in-and-under type midfielder that goes against the style of clearance football Sydney is trying to play.
But it was clear on Saturday night that the Swans need his grunt in the contest and not on the bench.
Grundy, for the most part, beat Jordon Sweet in the ruck contests: winning hitouts 42-30.
But the Power dominated the clearances (41-31), and contested possessions (135-108).
Outside of a dominant performance against the Bulldogs, Heeney has been down on his production in the midfield, while Warner is also in a rough patch of form in recent weeks.
Injecting a hard-nosed inside midfielder could help the Swans’ hardworking trio ahead of the finals campaign.
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