AFL: Gary Buckenara analyses Carlton’s list after 2022 season
Lachie Plowman is maligned in some circles. But recruiting guru Gary Buckenara believes he has traits that are hard to find.
AFL
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What a heartbreaking end to the season for the Blues, in the top eight all year only to fall short by the slimmest margin of percentage.
It can be a very cruel game, a missed goal or two over a season was the difference between playing finals and missing out again.
But we have seen the development of Carlton over the past few years, and no doubt with the arrival of Michael Voss there is also a far harder edge to this group. With 22 A/B and rising stars players on their list it should give the long-suffering Carlton fans some real belief that they are now in a period where finals football is a must. In fact, they should be a top-four side that has real claims of winning a premiership with the talent and depth at their disposal.
Carlton suffered badly for many years after some very poor list management and recruiting decisions from 2005 until Stephen Silvagni arrived. Although he did trade for a number of GWS players, some of those recruits have become important players, and investing in the draft over the past five or so years has seen some really important players develop.
But some top draftees are yet to develop into an A or B rating.
Paddy Dow is a talented player and only 22, and has been in the system for five years. I thought he’d be a B-grader by now. He’s fighting the established players that are ahead of him. Has he been given the continuity? Probably not, but I would have thought he’d be in the best 22 at this stage of his career.
The same can be said for Lochie O’Brien. Both he and Dow have played over 50 games but still rating a C. It might be harsh on O’Brien as he played 19 games this year, but he still hasn’t developed into a B-grader.
I think Liam Stocker was a reasonable player, but the Blues just did not give him enough time to develop push his ranking up to a B-grade level. I was very surprised he got delisted and the Blues could rue this decision if a club like the Bombers can get the best out of him.
Stocker’s situation this year was similar to Brodie Kemp. He also needs to play more games at AFL level. That’s one criticism I have of Michael Voss and the coaching staff – they just haven’t blooded enough of their high draft picks.
But the key building blocks are in place. Having a fit Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow up forward has been a big reason why they are so dangerous. Sam Walsh and Adam Cerra are really smart and classy players and when you add the stoppage strengths of Patrick Cripps, George Hewett and Matt Kennedy, the midfield is very strong.
Their defensive stocks are very good with Jacob Weitering, Sam Docherty, Nic Newman, Adam Saad and Lewis Young all rating well. The list is very well balanced and they should be a regular finals team and premiership contender for the next three to five years at least given luck with injuries.
HOW THE LIST RATINGS WORK
At a club level, player ranking is generally based on gradings of A+, A, B+, B, C+, C and the developing players.
My rankings will focus on A, B, C and for the developing 20-year-old and under players will be rated as rising stars (RS) and those that need more time (NMT).
With the younger players, it is important to consider who is coming through and those who need longer to develop.
The most important areas for clubs to look at is how many A and B ranked players they have as well as the rising stars, who I believe should be A and B-grade players in the future.
A
Patrick Cripps, 27
Harry McKay, 24
Sam Walsh, 22
Jacob Weitering, 25
Charlie Curnow, 25
Adam Cerra, 22
Adam Saad, 28
B
George Hewett, 26
Sam Docherty, 28
Jack Silvagni, 24
Zac Williams, 27
Matthew Kennedy, 25
Lachlan Fogarty, 23
Tom De Koning, 23
Jack Martin, 27
Nic Newman, 29
Zac Fisher, 24
Marc Pittonet, 26
Lewis Young, 23
Ed Curnow, 32
Matt Owies, 25
Lachlan Plowman, 28
C
Paddy Dow, 22
Lochie O’Brien, 22
Mitch McGovern, 27
Brodie Kemp, 21
Caleb Marchbank, 24
David Cuningham, 25
Jordan Boyd, 23
Sam Durdin, 26
Will Setterfield, 24
Alex Mirkov, 22
Matt Cottrell, 22
Rising Stars
Jesse Motlop, 18
Corey Durdin, 20
Needs More Time
Jack Carroll, 19
Sam Philp, 21
Josh Honey, 20
Domanic Akuei, 20
DELISTED
Luke Parks, Oscar McDonald, Jack Newnes, Liam Stocker, Will Hayes
List Breakdown:
A Grade = 7
B Grade = 15
C Grade = 11
Rising Star = 2
Need more time = 4
LIST NEEDS
Talented genuine footballers, with skills, competitiveness and footy smarts are what they should continue to add.
The ruck stocks are thin and need attention but I must say Marc Pittonet has really improved and hopefully he can have some luck after his PCL injury, and changes his technique at centre bounces to avoid any future recurrences.
Tom De Koning is a couple of years away from playing his best footy but that probably won’t be as a sole ruck. His versatility is his strength but Pittonet’s injury certainly hampered the Blues.
They need a bit of experience to help the group take the next step. They’re in the window and have the chance to win a flag within the next five years, so a premiership/veteran player from another club would boost their hopes.
The Blues’ backline is definitely not as solid as their forward and midfield lines. Weitering and Saad are clearly the standouts but they need more support, especially in the key back department.
Lachie Plowman has traits that are hard to find. Others may see it differently but I believe he doesn’t waste too many possessions.
Sam Docherty is a bit unlucky to be rated as a B grader but that was purely down to his missed season last year. Another consistent season in 2023 and he will jump to the A grade level.
A quality experienced small forward should also come into consideration to help the likes of Corey Durdin, Matt Owies and Jesse Motlop.
I am sure they will look to add more talent into the list with a combination of free agents or out of contract players and position themselves to add young talent via a strong draft in 2022.
TRADE TARGETS
More midfield class and some ruck depth to assist Pittonet are the key priorities during the trade period. A player like Karl Amon or Brad Hill would be ideal targets for the midfield while Rory Lobb would also add another forward/ruck option. Those three players are looking likely to go to other clubs, so Carlton must get creative. If Luke Jackson finds his way to the Dockers, then the Blues should make room for Sean Darcy and promise him the No.1 ruck role. They’d need to weigh up whether he’s better than Pittonet, but if Darcy wants out then the Blues should be a suitor. Or Darcy’s understudy in Lloyd Meek could be a cheaper alternative given the Blues’ cap space will understandably be tight.
The Blues are set to grab Blake Acres from Fremantle, which is an interesting move. I thought Acres’ form for St Kilda was ordinary but he has developed his game a lot at the Dockers. He comes back to Melbourne a more complete player. He doesn’t have the same ball using ability as Amon but he’s got games under his belt. I’m not sure he’s a walk-up start but it’s a smart ‘Moneyball’ type pick to add to their wing depth.
Jack Gunston from the Hawks would also add another dimension to the list. He would be a very good player to have around the club. I’d give him a three-year deal with a coaching/development role tied to third year to complement their forward line. Luke Breust’s re-signing is a blow as it’s hard to see what other quality small forwards are available. Maybe they look at Melbourne’s Toby Bedford or a late charge at the Giants’ Bobby Hill.
TRADE BAIT
I doubt the Blues will look to do much during the trade in terms of offering up players, but offloading Mitch McGovern is certainly a priority.
They need to get McGovern’s salary off their books, but unfortunately they’re not going to get much for him. They should accept a late draft pick if they can get a rival club to pay a portion of his high wage while it will also ensure they pick a player like Brodie Kemp down back instead of the former Crow.
Freeing up the salary would allow the Blues to target a Tom Mitchell type who could bolster the midfield further. A seasoned player who is good at clearances would certainly add to the group given the depth was tested this year. Or it would let them beef up their ruck and small forward stocks.
Paddy Dow could be another they move on, but again I don’t think they’d get much more than a late-second or a third-rounder. Could they convince North Melbourne to be a suitor to get a higher pick?
I wouldn’t be trading a high draftee like Kemp just yet, they just need to back him in to develop further unless clubs offered an enticing deal. This draft is quite deep in talent, so clubs need to keep this in mind when looking at deals.
CRYSTAL BALL
With 22 A and B grade players on their list the Blues are in a very strong list position and this is credit to decisions made by Silvagni and the current list and recruiting teams.
They should be a side that is a contender for a number of years as their list is still youngish and many players are still improving and developing.
Adam Cerra I have as an A-grader as he was very good at Freo. Despite his injuries, I think he’ll get even better and be a star A-grader.
Walsh is a star already and with players like Hewett and Cerra around him, it will only continue to help the Blues’ depth with the load now shared.
They are now playing a style that can win finals under Voss, so Carlton fans should be in for some exciting times ahead.
Although this year finished in heartbreak this will surely hurt this group enough to really go to another level in 2023 individually and as a group.
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