AFL Finals: Selection questions for every team ahead of week one of finals
Every club will have spent the week off moving magnets around, preparing for week one of the finals. Here’s what’s been keeping coaches up at night and our early predictions on the ins and outs.
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Thanks to a bye weekend, coaches – and fans – have more time than ever to ponder how to move the magnets for the first week of finals.
All eyes will remain on Michael Voss’ selection conundrums this week as the Carlton coach weighs up how many players to bring back from injury for Saturday’s elimination final against the Brisbane Lions.
Geelong gave a couple of premiership players a run around in the VFL on Saturday as Chris Scott weighs up his options ahead of a trip to face Port Adelaide.
And both Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs have issues to solve this week.
Selection in the first round of finals can be crucial for teams and players for the entire month.
Last year Collingwood brought Darcy Moore, Nathan Murphy and Beau McCreery into their side for the qualifying final, with John Noble one of three Pies omitted.
Noble didn’t make it back as the Magpies won the flag and has carried those scars for 12 months.
These are the questions plaguing coaches this week and our early predictions on how they will be solved.
PORT ADELAIDE v GEELONG
Qualifying final, Thursday 7.40pm, Adelaide Oval
PORT ADELAIDE
In the space of a fortnight to close the home-and-away season, the Power lost dual All-Australian Dan Houston and sharp left footer Kane Farrell from the half-back line.
Ken Hinkley will have spent hours planning how to keep drive out of defence.
Darcy Byrne-Jones was an All-Australian blazer there and could be shifted from the forward half, Ryan Burton could play a greater role and youngster Josh Sinn is waiting in the wings.
There is also a question up forward, with Dante Visentini almost certainly on the way out as Todd Marshall and Charlie Dixon wait in the wings. It’s a tough choice between two best-22 players and Dixon is expected to be picked.
Dixon and Visentini would be a like-for-like swap.
IN: Josh Sinn, Charlie Dixon
OUT: Kane Farrell (hamstring), Dante Visentini (omitted)
SUB: Francis Evans
GEELONG
We can safely rule Tom Hawkins and Cam Guthrie out this week.
The Cats are adamant that Tom Stewart and Lawson Humphries will play after being nursed through round 24’s smashing of West Coast.
So that leaves Sam De Koning, who hasn’t played in the senior side since round 21 after having a minor knee operation.
The big man played in the VFL on Saturday for the Cats and played plenty through the ruck, gathering 23 hit-outs.
He performed well there for a patch in the middle of the AFL season but ruck Rhys Stanley has been in solid form since coming back into the senior team.
If Esava Ratugolea and Charlie Dixon both play for Port, the Cats probably need De Koning’s height down back.
Premiership Cats Mark O’Connor and Gary Rohan also played in the VFL.
It’s going to be a squeeze for Chris Scott.
IN: Sam De Koning
OUT: Jed Bews (round 24 sub, omitted)
SUB: Mitch Duncan
WESTERN BULLDOGS v HAWTHORN
Elimination final, Friday 7.40pm, MCG
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Adam Treloar could force one change for Luke Beveridge here but he is confident he will get through with his creaky calf.
Barring any Beveridge surprise, Rhylee West is the watch here, given he has played an important role up forward all year.
He returned from a sore jaw in the VFL and kicked a goal, a game in which fellow forward Arthur Jones bagged three majors.
Beveridge has been keen for pressure and leg speed up forward, could that tip Caleb Daniel back to the sub position?
It would be a brutal call, and it would be still for Jones to be left out.
Jason Johannisen played his first game in three months in the VFL on Saturday but appears a long shot to break into the senior side, while James Harmes dominated with 36 touches in the state league.
IN: Rhylee West
OUT: Arthur Jones (round 24 sub, omitted)
SUB: Rhylee West
HAWTHORN
Will Day will not make it back for the first final
As one of the most in-form sides in the eight, hard to see the Hawks making too many changes
Sam Mitchell may have pondered throwing Changkuoth Jiath back into the side after a recent calf problem but Jiath only gathered eight disposals playing heavy VFL minutes on Saturday.
Finn Maginness was excellent in that state league final and has plenty of options in the Dogs midfield if Mitchell wants to deploy a tag.
Josh Ward and Seamus Mitchell are other options.
IN: Nil
OUT: Nil
SUB: Luke Breust
SYDNEY v GWS GIANTS
Qualifying final, Saturday 3.20pm, SCG
SYDNEY
Tom McCartin and Isaac Heeney will return after a final-round rest with Caiden Cleary and Aaron Francis the obvious two to go.
John Longmire also looks set to get livewire Tom Papley (ankle) and winger Justin McInerney (knee) back.
Both play if fit, so two must go out.
The obvious and unfortunate choice is Taylor Adams, who missed out due to a hamstring injury in Collingwood’s finals run last year.
Adams played just 63 per cent gametime in round 22 and 64 per cent in round 24, and was subbed off in round 23.
He appears the odd man out now Luke Parker is back to being a key player for the Swans.
Robbie Fox was the sub in round 24 and while an adaptable member of the defence, Lewis Melican has gone past him.
IN: Tom McCartin, Isaac Heeney, Tom Papley, Justin McInerney
OUT: Aaron Francis, Robbie Fox, Taylor Adams, Caiden Cleary (omitted)
SUB: Braeden Campbell
GWS GIANTS
The Giants were without Brent Daniels (back), Conor Stone (illness) and Toby Bedford (calf) in round 24. All three should be available, as should Jake Riccardi (finger) and Isaac Cumming (hamstring) and Lachie Ash (suspension).
Adam Kingsley has a number of younger players who can comfortably make way, such as Harvey Thomas, Toby McMullin and Callum Brown.
How to fit Riccardi in will be an interesting question for Kingsley, with Lachie Keeffe back doing his usual second ruck, key position role.
Aaron Cadman has done a good job up forward and Riccardi offers more than Keeffe, who somehow finds himself in the side late in the season every year.
A handful of changes is plenty, but the Giants can swing it.
IN: Brent Daniels, Toby Bedford, Lachie Ash, Isaac Cumming, Jake Riccardi
OUT: Callum Brown (round 24 sub, omitted), Harvey Thomas, Toby McMullin, Nick Haynes, Lachie Keeffe (omitted)
SUB: Isaac Cumming
BRISBANE LIONS v CARLTON
Elimination final, Saturday 7.30pm, Gabba
BRISBANE LIONS
Chris Fagan would have spent most of his selection thinking time this week worried about the backline.
Brandon Starcevich (hamstring) should be ready to come back while Jack Payne (foot) and Bruce Reville (fibula) both returned through the VFL on Saturday.
Starcevich is a crucial cog, while Payne has only played one AFL game since round 15 and it would be a risk to put him back in, even if the Blues play Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Tom De Koning.
It’s a tough one for the Lions.
IN: Brandon Starcevich
OUT: Noah Answerth (omitted), Harry Sharp (round 24 sub, omitted)
SUB: Bruce Reville
CARLTON
How many changes can Michael Voss make?
There are eight Blues pushing a case – Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Adam Cerra, Jack Martin, Zac Williams, Tom De Koning, Mitch McGovern and Sam Docherty – to make the trip to Brisbane.
If they are all fit and match-fit, all would be in Voss’ team.
McKay (quad) and Williams (hamstring) moved the best at training on Saturday, Curnow (ankle) just has to play and McGovern (hamstring) appears on track.
If the two big forwards play, does that mean Brodie Kemp goes to defence or is left out all together?
Matt Owies will miss due to suspension.
Geelong premiership skipper Cameron Ling would get the big guns in.
“You’ve got to roll the dice on them,” he told ABC Radio.
“If they’re 85 per cent and could use another week, you probably have to play them.”
Cerra (hamstring) is a big risk given his history, Martin (hamstring) has played two games since round 9 and De Koning (foot) appears a ways back.
Docherty (knee) is the fairytale but can you put him in cold to an elimination final?
It is now or never.
IN: Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Zac Williams, Mitch McGovern, Sam Docherty
OUT: Matt Owies (suspension), Cooper Lord, Corey Durdin, Jack Carroll, Lewis Young (omitted)
SUB: Ashton Moir
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