AFL Finals 2023: Mick McGuane previews St Kilda v GWS Giants elimination final

St Kilda are headed to the finals for the first time since 2011. AFL analyst Mick McGuane takes a look at where their clash against GWS will be won and lost.

Greater Western Sydney has won nine of its past 11 matches to be one of the most in-form teams entering finals.

After a mid-season slump, St Kilda also rediscovered its best football at the tail end of the home-and-away season.

Who wins the cut-throat elimination final at the MCG on Saturday afternoon?

AFL analsyst Mick McGuane takes a close look at both teams to find an answer.

ST KILDA

HOW THEY PLAY

In his second stint at St Kilda, coach Ross Lyon has brought back his tried and true defensive system.

The Saints have been the hardest team to score against this year, averaging just 71.6 points against per game.

That will hold them in good stead for this final.

They are a high-volume team when it comes to accumulating possessions, also rating No.1 in the competition for average disposals at 391 per game.

Having that much possession allows St Kilda to control the tempo of games through kick-mark play, but they can also flick the switch at times and drive forward at speed when the opportunity presents.

St Kilda coach Ross Lyon has brought back his signature defence-first philosophy this year. Picture: Michael Klein.

THE KEY

Can the Saints kick a winning score?

As good as its defence is, St Kilda has ranked 15th for scores for this season at an average of just 77.2 points a game.

The Saints also rank last in the competition for scores per inside 50.

The way they enter forward 50 to the likes of Max King, Tim Membrey and Jack Higgins will be crucial in a cut-throat final.

They must also get the balance right between when to go slow and when to play quick and slingshot the ball to players like Higgins and Dan Butler charging into an open forward line.

THE THEME

Make a blitz start.

If St Kilda can nail its start to the game and open up an early lead, it may be able to control the footy – and the match – through uncontested marks from there.

Playing a kick-mark game would allow the Saints to take away GWS’s transition game, while also giving their defenders time to get well set up behind the ball when the Giants do win it back and surge forward.

The Saints’ ball use will need to stand up under heat, with GWS being a side that is renowned for applying great pressure.

St Kilda must make minimum mistakes with ball in hand.

THE CHALLENGE

Defending turnover.

Errors occur in finals and the best teams punish opposition sides from them when they do.

St Kilda is averaging only 42 points against from turnovers this season – ranked fourth.

But the Giants are a different beast to most sides.

Since round 13, GWS has recorded an average of 22.5 points a game more than its opposition from turnovers – ranked No.1.

The Saints’ challenge will be how they handle the Orange Tsumani coming back at them, because the Giants will look to force turnover and attack at speed with the ball in motion.

GWS has no shortage of damaging players on counter-attack including Lachie Whitfield, Josh Kelly, Brent Daniels and Toby Greene.

St Kilda will look to free up Callum Wilkie as much as possible. Picture: Getty Images

IF I WERE THE SAINTS

I’d look to free up Callum Wilkie as much as possible.

He’s clearly St Kilda’s most important defender with his intercept ability and will be important in helping to control Giants forwards Jesse Hogan, Jake Riccardi and Callum Brown.

At the other end, if Sam Taylor plays you need to control him and not allow him to roam free and take intercept marks at will.

Jack Sinclair is the Saints’ Mr Fix It.

I’d start him at half-back but be flexible with where he is used after that and throw him through the midfield at times when a spark is needed.

St Kilda captain Jack Steele must impose himself on GWS onballer Tom Green and take away his influence around stoppages.

Mitch Owens could also be injected around the ball and use Green as his competitive starting point.

There will be a constant red alert around Toby Greene, who is the Giants’ barometer.

GWS GIANTS

HOW THEY PLAY

The Giants like the game to be kept in motion.

They are a high-pressure team who have a brand that is built on contest and strong defensive actions and they deny the opposition time and space with the footy.

The defensive set up allows GWS to play a strong territory game and hit the scoreboard from there.

Under first-year coach Adam Kingsley, their front-half and turnover game has been as reliable as any team in this year’s finals race and they head into September in incredibly good form.

Adam Kingsley has turned around GWS brilliantly this year. Picture: Michael Klein.

THE KEY

Get the game played the way the Giants want it to be.

They will need to bring the heat in spades and work hard to shut down space to take away St Kilda’s uncontested mark game.

Getting the ball pinging around at speed is paramount for GWS, given their game is built from creating turnover opportunities.

Since round 13, Kingsley’s side ranks third in the competition for pressure, third for forward-half intercepts and first for points-from-turnover differential.

If GWS can orchestrate a chaos game, it should prove too good for St Kilda given its scoring ability.

But if the Saints are allowed to take 110-plus uncontested marks, the Giants will be quickly bundled out of the finals race.

THE THEME

Believe we belong.

After starting the season with a 3-7 record, who would have thought the Giants would be where they are now?

But they are here and they must believe in what has got them this far – a great brand of football, a quality defensive system, players knowing their roles and importantly playing their roles with great impact.

Since round 13, their defensive profile stacks up as the best of any team in the league.

Over that period, GWS ranks No.1 for points against (69.3 points a game), No.1 for opposition scores per inside 50 (35 per cent) and No.1 for opposition points from turnovers (36.1 points a game).

That is a profile that is built for finals and should only be strengthened if Sam Taylor returns from injury.

Toby Greene and his Giants need to believe they belong in finals. Picture: Michael Klein.

THE CHALLENGE

Control St Kilda’s bookends.

The Saints have key pillars at both ends of the ground who are vital to their game.

Callum Wilkie’s ability to read and mark opposition kicks is as good as any defender going around and Jesse Hogan and Callum Brown need to be wary of his positioning.

At the other end, Max King, Tim Membrey and Mitch Owens are all strong-marking forwards who could provide headaches for the Giants’ defenders, led by Harry Himmelberg, Connor Idun, Jack Buckley and Taylor.

At both ends of the ground the Giants will need to work hard to bring the ball to the floor if they can’t mark it.

IF I WERE THE GIANTS

It will be important to nullify Jack Sinclair’s possession rate.

I wouldn’t use a defensive forward on him, but I would ensure my forwards are conscious of the fact the Saints will want to get the ball in his hands because he so often starts the offensive transition.

Kieran Briggs has a massive role to play and he will need to continue his upward trajectory in the ruck while also trying to negate Rowan Marshall’s influence.

St Kilda will look to free up Wilkie down back, by folding Mason Wood back from a wing to support its defence.

Whichever forward finds themselves on Wilkie, he needs to use him as a competitive starting point and ensure he is not loose whenever the ball enters the region.

MICK’S TIP – GWS by 7 points