AFL expert Mick McGuane casts an eye over who has risen, who has fallen and why
Richmond had a dominant era from 2017-20, now that time is over. But the Tigers are still running around with an ego despite playing to a level that isn’t up to AFL standard.
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Footy can be a game of snakes and ladders. Football analyst Mick McGuane takes a look at the teams that have risen and those that have fallen in 2023 – what’s to like, and what’s to fix?
THE LADDERS
ST KILDA (10th in 22, currently 1st)
TO LIKE: Defensive structure
TO FIX: Need to score more
The immediate question is where has their improvement come from?
With any Ross Lyon coached team, giving 100% effort and having a competitive attitude is a non negotiable. This is what underpins their performance and he demands it is delivered consistently.
He also puts a massive price on playing your role in the team – more so it’s about what you are doing without the ball. When you watch the Saints play there is plenty of trust among the team. The synergy and connection is clear to see.
There is an expectation to apply great pressure on the opposition ball carrier which is allowing the likes of Callum Wilkie to influence the air and add layers to his game. He’s an All-Australian lock if his current form continues. He’s not only knocking over his direct opponent, he’s arguably the best interceptor in the game right now – he’s had 20 intercept marks in the last three games.
The Saints are also only conceding 59.4 points per game, their defensive structure holding firm due to the pressure they apply up the ground. They make it hard for their opposition to score once inside their forward 50 and they are giving up a miserly 33.4 points from turnovers.
They are clearly the competition’s most difficult team to score against.
If teams want to rely on ball movement from their defensive end to score and win games against the Saints – my simple message is good luck.
The Saints have registered 4 wins from their 5 games but are one win (Essendon) and one loss (Collingwood) against current top eight teams, so is their form misleading?
Lyon will be searching for solutions to make more of their attacking opportunities. The big upside is Tim Membrey and Max King will make their way back into the team. If they can combine with Jack Higgins and Mitch Owens – what a beauty he is – their scoring profile will improve.
ESSENDON (15th in 2022, currently 2nd)
TO LIKE: Scores from turnovers, efficiency in attack
TO FIX: Defending opposition ball movement
Essendon are such an exciting team to watch. When they play with speed and use the ball effectively they will trouble any team they come up against.
What has changed at The Hangar since Brad Scott has taken over as coach?
Their rise up the ladder has been a result of correcting three important aspects – their ability to score from turnovers, their ability to score once inside 50 is up their with the best in the competition and there is complete buy in with their intent to chase and tackle all over the ground.
That assertive messaging from Scott over summer has definitely translated to game day.
Essendon have increased their average scoring by over three goals this year and their points from turnover (61.2) has them second in the competition.
What we are witnessing is a sustainable brand but they are not the finished product just yet.
The backline is holding up well but their overall team defence needs serious attention.
Essendon are not defending opposition ball movement no where near as good as they should be and Scott will be well aware of this.
The Bombers are giving up 32.2 points per game to opposition from defensive half.
On Anzac Day, we’ll find out if their defensive mechanics break down against the elite kicking skills of Steele Sidebottom, Scott Pendlebury, Josh and Nick Daicos.
The Magpies’ speed of ball movement and precision kicking will give the Bombers a defensive footy audit in one of the game’s biggest stages.
CARLTON (9th in 2022, currently 4th)
TO LIKE: Defending turnovers
TO FIX: Stoppage game
Is their ladder position real, or misguided?
I think the latter.
Let’s face it – the Blues have only beaten three teams and drawn with one that are currently sitting outside the top eight.
The 56-point loss to Adelaide last week was a concern. Even though they created ample opportunities, they were very inefficient inside 50 and are currently too reliant on Charlie Curnow. He has kicked 32 per cent of Carlton’s goals. Harry McKay needs to lift and somehow find a way of eradicating the mental demons he has when kicking for goal.
They looked horribly slow across the ground when the Crows had the ball.
Was it a lack of genuine leg speed, or was it a lack of effort?
The GPS data would have been a compelling read. They gave up 240 uncontested possessions and 97 uncontested marks. Once the ball bounced out of the Carlton forward line, they couldn’t lay a glove on the Crows.
Up until last week, the backline had held up well and was making it difficult for opposition to score.
What Voss must see return is their stoppage dominance. That was their point of difference last year, and it’s vanished.
You don’t want to concede territory against the Saints by being beaten around stoppages so Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, George Hewett and Adam Cerra must roll up their sleeves and get to work.
You won’t win games relying on back to front ball movement, especially against the Saints.
ADELAIDE (14th in 2022, currently 7th)
TO LIKE: The next generation
TO FIX: Defending stoppages losses
The Crows are exciting, emerging and innovative and their brand is an offensive juggernaut.
When they get control of the ball, they’re as exciting as any team to watch. They make good decisions and execute them and are so efficient once they get inside 50, with the likes of Izak Rankine and Josh Rachele – who will be household names in years to come – leading the way.
I love how they take the game on and the transition under Matthew Nicks has been stark.
Max Michalanney is going to be a future star. Nick Murray, Mitchell Hinge, Luke Pedlar – all unheralded names who are just getting it done.
There is the perfect blend of youth and experience with the likes of Rory Laird, Rory Sloane and Taylor Walker all appearing to really enjoying the footy.
The Crows are putting a high price on their defensive intent yet still not forgetting the class and polish they possess when they have the ball in their hands.
Nicks has been brave and innovative in regards to some positional changes.
Captain Jordan Dawson’s move to a play as an inside/outside midfielder is a master stroke.
He is tall and strong who can control the likes of a Patrick Cripps, yet be so effective as an attacking midfielder himself.
But giving up over six goals on average per game from stoppages is not good enough.
When you’ve got such an efficient forward line, it’s imperative that the Crows start winning clearances rather than losing them and getting scored heavily against.
THE SNAKES
GEELONG (1st in 2022, currently 10th)
TO LIKE: Won their last two games and have strong percentage
TO FIX: Better ball security
The Cats have won their last two but the question is whether the momentum will continue.
It’s a huge game against Sydney at GMHBA Stadium.
Their percentage is healthy, particularly when you look at Carlton’s who has won one more game.
Why the slow start?
They just couldn’t win enough of the ball, and when they did, their great strength of effective ball use wasn’t anywhere near up to scratch. Poor decisions and skill execution created simple mistakes, opening them up to be scored heavily against on turnover.
It’s foreign territory, with opposition are scoring an average of 55.6 points from Geelong’s turnovers, compared to 34.7 points last season.
The upside is that it’s fixable.
Their best intercept defender Tom Stewart is back and Mitch Duncan’s elite ball use is a timely tonic.
The Cats need to lift their contested work, and the likes of Dangerfield, Guthrie, Atkins and Blicavs will all need to be at their competitive best if they want to defeat the Swans on Saturday night.
FREMANTLE (5th in 2022, currently 11th)
TO LIKE: Territory game and field position
TO FIX: Scores per inside 50
It’s all about forward 50 efficiency for the Dockers.
Is it personnel, is it structure, is it a lack of synergy and cohesion?
They’ve only kicked 58 goals this year, which isn’t a lot for a team that had top-four aspirations.
They shouldn’t be expecting Michael Walters and Lachie Schulz to be shouldering the scoring load. Luke Jackson is on big money and should be focusing on honing his forward craft to compliment those around him, especially in the absence of Nat Fyfe and also the form that Mat Taberner is currently in. Jye Amiss is an exciting forward prospect and Justin Longmuir just has to consistently play him to help fast-track his development.
Fremantle are scoring at 41% per inside 50 — 15th in the competition. It’s their defensive structure that is in good shape and it’s enabling them to create forward half intercepts but the problem lies in their ability to score from those turnovers they are creating.
To change their midfield dynamic, Longmuir should consider moving Hayden Young into the midfield to add a point of difference but more importantly to use his laser-like kick into attack.
RICHMOND (7th in 2022, currently 15th)
TO LIKE: Creating forward half intercepts
TO FIX: Effective ball use and discipline
The next month will be telling for the Tigers — starting on Monday night against the Demons.
I sense Damien Hardwick’s review of last week’s disappointing loss to Sydney would have been direct, assertive and no holds barred considering the ill discipline and skill level that certain players displayed.
It simple terms it wasn’t up to AFL standard. Some home truths needed to be told and I’ve got no doubt they would have been.
It would have been perfect timing to wield the axe but the injury toll means his hands are tied.
The Tigers have played in patches. Their good is very good but they have been far too inconsistent and lapses are hurting them.
Defending forward half is one example. At times, Richmond failed to work hard enough to lock the ball in. The Swans then moved the ball from one end of the ground to other and scored far too easily.
Their ball security has to improve as they are missing too many simple targets.
Ill-discipline just damages your brand and what you stand for – to give up goals to opposition is selfish and demoralising. Come Monday, it’s time for some to leave their ego on the hook.
WESTERN BULLDOGS (8th in 2022, currently 14th)
TO LIKE: The draw. Next couple of games are winnable
TO FIX: Gone from 5th for scoring to 17th. That speaks for itself.
This biggest issue for Luke Beveridge is to get their offence back in check. With the talent they’ve got and the recruits that they’ve brought in – looking at you, Rory Lobb – their decline in scoring is damning. Their score per inside 50 percentage was 8th last year. They’re now 18th.
For a team that generally turns chains of plays into scores you can only say they are void of confidence and are disconnected as a team at the moment.
The Dogs have assets all over the ground but parts of their game have deserted them.
The biggest issue is their midfield turnovers.
Ed Richards, Adam Treloar, Marcus Bontempelli, Bailey Dale and Oskar Baker are all guilty of it. For their skill level they shouldn’t be making the amount of crucial errors they are — and where, which is making it nearly impossible to defend those turnovers.
They won’t ever get flow or rhythm on a game with players that continually give it back to opposition. It challenges their trust and belief in the team.
Until the Bulldogs tidy up their ball use coming out of defence and through that midfield zone, they’ll continue to struggle.
Taking care of the footy is a prerequisite to scoring.
Possession is 9/10ths of the law – in life and in footy.
A win over the Dockers does help their cause.
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