AFL: Every club’s 2021 breakout contender

Injury derailed Aaron Francis’ 2020 season, but Essendon will want to see the emerging defender take his game to new heights this year.

Who will be the breakout AFL stars of 2021?

We all love predicting breakout players.

Whoever tipped Jordan Ridley’s extraordinary rise should give themselves a pat on the back.

Ridley started 2020 with only nine games to his name, but will enter next season as Essendon’s reigning club champion and fresh from making the All-Australian shortlist.

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There are layers to what a breakout is as well: Christian Petracca, Jack Steele, Cam Guthrie and Luke Ryan were all good players before last season, but ended it as first-time All-Australians.

Then there were footballers such as Josh Daicos, Dan Butler, Luke McDonald, Matt Taberner, James Rowbottom and Brandon Starcevich, who went to a new level.

So who could follow in their footsteps in 2021?

Will any of the below triers raise their games like Bomber Jordan Ridley, in 2020, did? Picture: Michael Klein

ADELAIDE

Chayce Jones, part of a strong top 10 in the 2018 draft, is entering his third year, a common time for players to start ‘getting it’. The quick midfielder won single-digit disposals 10 times this past season, but his toughness belies his slight frame – and we’ve seen promising glimpses. Recruiting boss Hamish Ogilvie rarely gets it wrong at the top.

BRISBANE

Technically, Cam Rayner’s already established. However, the dux of the 2017 draft class clearly has another gear to go to, along with the likelihood of increased midfield time. So far Rayner’s clutch moments have outweighed his statistics, but he seems primed to appease the number-crunchers, too.

CARLTON

Newcomer Lachie Fogarty could prove a shrewd Blues trade addition. With Geelong largely leaning on veterans, Fogarty’s made only eight appearances across the past two seasons, so it’s not surprising he sought a fresh start. He had a career-most 23 touches in round 10 and fits Carlton’s age demographic.

Son of a gun Will Kelly has Pie fans excited. Picture: Phil Hillyard

COLLINGWOOD

Nathan Buckley’s men will rely on internal improvement to remain relevant – and that’s where Will Kelly, son of ex-Pie and prominent player agent Craig, comes in. He earned his AFL debut in round six, only for an arm fracture to sideline him for the rest of the season. Kelly is tall, athletic, knows where the goals are, has returned in terrific shape and should challenge for a regular spot.

ESSENDON

The time is now for Aaron Francis. The Bombers are desperate for their emerging defenders, including Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, to follow club champion Jordan Ridley’s lead, with Michael Hurley and Cale Hooker both on the wrong side of 30. Injury restricted Francis to only eight matches in 2020, so he’ll be keen to make his presence felt and hold off the even younger generation.

FREMANTLE

There is any number of baby Dockers who could slot in here, but there was plenty to like from Michael Frederick last season. He showed such promise that Freo locked him away until 2023. Frederick used his dash and improved game awareness to make an impact as a winger in 10 games in 2020, and he should only be better next season.

Is Jordan Clark ready to make one of the premiership favourites even more dangerous? Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

GEELONG

The 2020 season wasn’t what anyone expected, but Jordan Clark had even more reason to be perplexed. The young Cat enjoyed an excellent debut season before struggling for senior opportunities in his second campaign. Both WA clubs tried to lure him home, but Geelong didn’t contemplate their advances and he should make his mark in year three.

GOLD COAST

Tipping the Suns’ breakout candidate is like drawing a raffle, given the young riches the Queensland club boasts. Matt Rowell – pre-injury, at least – and Noah Anderson overshadowed fellow 2019 first-round draft pick Sam Flanders in their first-up season. However, Flanders’ physicality has endeared him internally and that could lead to more senior chances.

GWS GIANTS

Stuck behind Todd Goldstein and Max Gawn to this stage of his career, new (206cm) Giant Braydon Preuss’ opportunity to lead a ruck division has finally arrived. The burly big man’s decision to join Melbourne at the end of 2018 raised eyebrows, but leaving the Demons for GWS makes more sense.

HAWTHORN

The Hawks’ defensive structure will take on a new look in 2021, with Ben Stratton retired, James Frawley at St Kilda, James Sicily (knee) set to miss most of the season and ex-Crow Kyle Hartigan donning the brown and gold. Jack Scrimshaw’s already proven a bargain backline recruit – after a difficult first two seasons as a Sun – and his intercept ability and sweet left-foot kicking could help make him a star.

Will Luke Jackson bust out in his second season at the Demons? Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

MELBOURNE

Athletic forward-ruckman Luke Jackson’s physical transformation in the off-season might be all it takes for him to go from promising prospect to difference-maker for the Demons. The No.3 draft pick from 2019 – an impressive mover despite standing 198cm – was rounding into form before a hamstring setback ended his debut season prematurely.

NORTH MELBOURNE

Roos fans didn’t get a look at Flynn Perez until round 16 last year, because the club took a cautious approach to his recovery from his ACL rupture in December 2018. Perez’s ability was obvious once North unleashed him at senior level. He’s a smooth mover, takes the game on and is a good decision-maker, so don’t be surprised if he’s playing early in the season.

PORT ADELAIDE

Charlie Dixon’s towering performances in attack meant young sidekick Todd Marshall’s development in 2020 was a tad underappreciated. He’s still yet to kick more than 11 goals in any season, but the mobile 198cm forward is the modern AFL prototype. At age 22, Marshall seems set to terrorise opponents for years to come.

RICHMOND

Callum Coleman-Jones will miss the first month of next season, serving the rest of a 10-match ban for breaking the AFL’s COVID-19 protocols. That’s a hindrance to his breakout hopes, but ruck-forward Coleman-Jones – a top-20 pick in 2017 – is otherwise coming along nicely. There’s a logjam at his positions at Tigerland, but it will take only an injury or two for him to show what he’s got.

ST KILDA

There’s a breakout, then there’s a breakout. We know by now that Hunter Clark is going to be a jet, but 2021 might be when he puts it all together. Clark’s played most of his AFL football down back, so a midfield shift – or at least more time there – could prove the impetus for him to take the next step. His expert vision in traffic is arguably his greatest asset.

SYDNEY

Dylan Stephens took longer to crack the Swans’ line-up than many expected, but by season’s end he’d found his feet at senior level, including winning 19 disposals in round 18. The hard-running wingman is likened to Andrew Gaff, idolises Josh Kelly and should be a major part of Sydney’s climb back up the ladder.

Can Jarrod Cameron follow in the footsteps of his superstar brother? Picture: Getty Images

WEST COAST

All eyes are on Jarrod Cameron, the 20-year-old brother of All-Australian Lion Charlie. The Eagles’ Cameron played only five games last season, in large part because of a groin issue that delayed the goalsneak’s season start and left him playing catch up. His silky skills were on display in a promising debut campaign in 2019 – and the opportunity is there.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

The Dogs were delighted Cody Weightman made it to them in the 2019 draft, and his senior debut was spectacular: who can forget the mark and brilliant goal with his first kick in AFL football? An ankle injury prematurely ended Weightman’s season, but the Dogs need and want the small forward to succeed, especially with Sam Lloyd and Tory Dickson retiring.