AFL draft: Analysing all 18 clubs’ first-round picks since 2013 including the hits and misses
They’re a prized commodity - first-round draft picks - but what happens when your club’s pick fizzles rather than fires? We analyse all the picks since 2013.
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They can help turn clubs’ fortunes around or set them back on the path to success.
First-round draft picks are highly coveted because the best young talent is usually found near the top of the order but many do not go on to become stars as teams and their fans hope.
An analysis of all first-round picks taken over the past decade, stretching back to the 2013 national draft, shows the average number of games they have played is 51.5.
While many have become key members of their sides, only 17 of the 206 opening round selections have won a best-and-fairest or made an All-Australian team.
Carlton has five of them, the most of any club, but that has not yet resulted in team success.
GWS and Gold Coast have had a swag of early picks, keeping them has been an issue.
Adelaide swingman Fischer McAsey walking away from the AFL this month prompted a look into just how the Crows’ high selections stacked up against other clubs.
Listed are each teams’ first-rounders since 2013, how many games they have played, whether they are still on the club and their average number of matches.
The averages provide some context but obviously clubs like Melbourne that began their rebuilds earlier in the decade will have more games played than those doing so more recently.
Once draftees are on a list, their rate of improvement is determined by a number of factors, including clubs’ development programs, and this provides a snapshot of which have had the most success.
Note: Games are only for that club and an asterisk indicates a player is no longer with that team.
Total: 13
Top-10 picks: 4
First-rounders no longer on list: 3
Average games by first-rounder: 38
B & Fs or All-Australians for drafted club: 0
Summary: It has been very much a mixed bag. Possible future captain Doedee has proven a great pick, Fogarty is emerging as a star-in-the-making, while Thilthorpe and Rachele look very promising. The jury is still out on Jones and McHenry, injuries have plagued Milera and Pedlar, and Gallucci and McAsey’s selections have proven costly. Lever has become a gun but at Melbourne after being traded for two first-round picks – one used to grab Milera, the other in the deal to get Bryce Gibbs.
Total: 13
Top-10 picks: 5
First-rounders no longer on list: 2
Average games by first-rounder: 61.9
B & Fs or All-Australians: 0
Summary: Aish and Schache did not work out for the Lions, who then nailed a run of six picks that helped thrust the club into premiership contention. McCluggage has made the All-Australian squad four times without being chosen in the team, while Starcevich has become an unsung Lion, finishing third in their best-and-fairest in 2022. Did not see a lot of Wilmot or Lohmann last season. There are huge wraps on father-son draftee Ashcroft, who is expected to slot straight into a strong Brisbane side this year.
Total: 13
Top-10 picks: 4
First-rounders no longer on list: 3
Average games by first-rounder: 68.4
B & Fs or All-Australians: 5 (Cripps, Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Walsh)
Summary: Only expansion clubs Gold Coast and GWS have had more first-round picks during the past 10 years. Yes, the Blues got Weitering and Walsh at No. 1, but they nailed the later selections of Cripps, McKay and Curnow – all five of whom have either won a club champion award or made an All-Australian team. Five is the most of any team. You would think with that top-end talent Carlton would be a perennial finalist. Some questionable selections beyond that quintet, such as Boekhorst, Stocker – part of a pick swap with Adelaide that cost it No. 4 the next year – and even Dow, have stemmed the Blues’ rise.
Total: 11
Top-10 picks: 5
First-rounders no longer on list: 4
Average games by first-rounder: 48.6
B & Fs or All-Australians: 1 (Moore)
Summary: The Magpies got only 43 games from its injury-hampered 2013 picks Scharenberg and Freeman, before choosing two of the best players in the 2014 pool in De Goey and father-son product Moore. Stephenson won a Rising Star Award at the Magpies, only to be traded for two second-round selections after three seasons. Quaynor is emerging as a quality player, while Daicos – another father-son draftee – has all the hallmarks of a potential superstar one campaign into his career. Henry is now at Geelong after being dealt with late selections for pick 25 and Hawthorn’s Tom Mitchell in October.
Total: 10
Top-10 picks: 6
First-rounders no longer on list: 1
Average games by first-rounder: 65.1
B & Fs or All-Australians: 1 (Parish)
Summary: Parish has become a gun midfielder and McGrath may be a future captain. How the Bombers’ three consecutive top-10 picks in 2020, Cox, Perkins and Reid, develop will have a sizeable bearing on the Bombers’ fortunes in coming seasons. Injury and personal issues hampered Francis, who was picked ahead of the likes of Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow, then traded in October for late selections.
Total: 12
Top-10 picks: 7
First-rounders no longer on list: 4
Average games by first-rounder: 37.8
B & Fs or All-Australians: 1 (Brayshaw)
Summary: The Dockers have had the most top-10 picks during the past decade, outside of the expansion clubs Gold Coast and GWS. And Fremantle looks on track to have nailed most of them. Apeness was a miss, but Weller was traded for pick 2, which became gun midfielder Brayshaw. Brayshaw has quickly become a star of the competition, while Young and Serong are emerging as quality players also. Chapman has shown plenty of promise and there are high hopes for 2021 key forward Amiss and on-baller Erasmus. Logue and Cerra were very good players for the Dockers before being traded to North Melbourne and Carlton. Cerra was dealt for pick 6, which helped Fremantle net Amiss.
Total: 6
Top-10 picks: 1
First-rounders no longer on list: 3
Average games by first-rounder: 25.4
B & Fs or All-Australians: 0
Summary: The Cats have had the fewest first-round selections over the past decade and the equal-least top-10 picks but clearly that has not stopped them from challenging for premierships or regenerating the team. Half of the ones they have had are no longer at the club, having been traded after minimal influence for the club. Injury-hit Cockatoo (Brisbane) was dealt for a third-rounder, Clark (Fremantle) for a second-round pick and future third, and Stephens helped Geelong nab Collingwood forward Ollie Henry. Rising Star runner-up De Koning and unlucky grand final absentee Holmes look like stars in the making. Clark has been likened to a young Joel Selwood.
Total: 21
Top-10 picks: 15
First-rounders no longer on list: 10
Average games by first-rounder: 44.9
B & Fs or All-Australians: 0
Summary: The Suns have had the most top-10 picks in the competition over the past decade and only GWS has had more first-rounders but arguably none of them have become genuine stars of the competition, at least yet. Their drafting early in the decade gives some indication why the club is yet to make the finals. Almost have of their first-round selections are no longer on the list. Brodie, Scrimshaw, Ah Chee and Wright have played their best football elsewhere. King, Rowell, Anderson can be long-time cornerstones of the club if they stay. Can Flanders, Hollands, Andrew and Humphrey become key pieces? If they do, that top-eight drought may end soon.
Total: 26
Top-10 picks: 12
First-rounders no longer on list: 13
Average games by first-rounder: 38.5
B & Fs or All-Australians: 2 (Kelly, Taranto)
Summary: The Giants have had five more first-round picks during the past decade than second-ranked Gold Coast, and half of the players taken are no longer at the club. It is a clear sign of how difficult GWS has found it to retain interstate draftees. While none of Gold Coast’s 21 picks have played 100 clubs for it, four have done so for the Giants, which has helped them become more successful. Still, there are plenty of picks who did not turn out, such as McCarthy, Pickett, Ahern and Bonar. Kelly is a star, Green is on his way to becoming one and Taranto is a GWS best-and-fairest winner now at Richmond after being dealt for two top-20 picks. The Giants will need some of their recent first-rounders to emerge soon to help fast-track the club’s rebuild.
Total: 7
Top-10 picks: 3
First-rounders no longer on list: 2
Average games by first-rounder: 23.4
B & Fs or All-Australians: 0
Summary: The Hawks only made two first-round selections in the six years from 2013-18 before turning to a rebuild. One of those earlier picks, Burton, was dealt to Port Adelaide, along with the 15th choice in the 2018 draft, for Chad Wingard – not a good trade for Hawthorn. Trading out veterans for high selections sooner could have accelerated the list rejuvenation. The remaining five Hawks are in the early stages of their career. Day and Grainger-Barras have shown promise, Ward is expected to get more opportunities after the departures of some experienced midfielders, while Mackenzie should feature also.
Total: 11
Top-10 picks: 6
First-rounders no longer on list: 2
Average games by first-rounder: 78.1
B & Fs or All-Australians: 2 (Petracca, Oliver)
Summary: Melbourne has been the blueprint in recent years for how to win a flag from great drafting. The Demons average more games per first-rounders selected since 2013 than any club in the competition. That comes from an impressive draft record this past decade, starting with superstars Petracca and Oliver, along with very good players in Salem and Brayshaw – all four of whom have played at least 140 games. Electric small forward Pickett has been a great selection. Jackson became a premiership player for the Demons, who netted a huge haul of two first-rounders and future second-round selection for him from Fremantle in October. Weideman was a rare miss, showing promise but never becoming a regular, averaging eight games a season.
Total: 11
Top-10 picks: 7
First-rounders no longer on list: 2
Average games by first-rounder: 60.1
B & Fs or All-Australians: 2 (McDonald, Simpkin)
Summary: Only Gold Coast and GWS have had more top-10 picks this past decade than the Kangaroos, but they are yet to pay dividends from a ladder standpoint. McDonald and Simpkin have been nice picks, becoming the club’s new co-captains. McKay is a quality key defender and Davies-Uniacke looks primed to becoming an elite midfielder in the competition. Off-field issues have hampered Thomas, whose best has been very good. Injuries have curtailed Phillips so far, while Powell has had an encouraging start to his career. Horne-Francis was touted as a generational talent who could steer the club but lasted just one season at Arden St. At least his trade to Port Adelaide netted the Roos pick 2 and a future first-rounder.
Total: 9
Top-10 picks: 1
First-rounders no longer on list: 0
Average games by first-rounder: 55.2
B & Fs or All-Australians: 1 (Rozee)
Summary: The Power has had the equal-fewest top-10 picks this past decade with just one, Rozee, who has become a game-breaking player, best-and-fairest winner and All-Australian. Butters does not look far off those honours. The blossoming of Marshall and Powell-Pepper last season were among the shining lights at Alberton as the club missed the finals. Georgiades is an intriguing watch, given he is coming out of contract, regularly linked with the WA clubs and hoping to bounce back from an inaccurate campaign in front of goals. Duursma and Bergman have stagnated somewhat, while injuries have hampered the start to Jones’s career. All nine picks remain at the club.
Total: 8
Top-10 picks: 1
First-rounders no longer on list: 4
Average games by first-rounder: 33.8
B & Fs or All-Australians: 0
Summary: The Tigers traded out first-round selections amid their run of three premierships then again in October to bring in Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper, ensuring a small crop over the past decade. Lennon, who was taken one pick ahead of Patrick Cripps, Ellis and Collier-Dawkins did not work out, while Higgins was traded to St Kilda at the end of 2020. Rioli has been an excellent selection, winning three flags as a hardworking small forward then converting into a dashing halfback. Gibcus has had a bright start to his career.
Total: 11
Top-10 picks: 6
First-rounders no longer on list: 3
Average games by first-rounder: 62.3
B & Fs or All-Australians: 0
Summary: The Saints have had some nice picks but of the more established players, only King is a star of the competition. Billings was taken one spot ahead of Marcus Bontempelli. Injuries have curtailed Clark and Coffield’s appearances at the top level. McCartin’s Saints career being ruined by concussion was a big blow. King is coming off a 52-goal season and is still only 22. Wanganeen-Milera oozes class, while Phillipou looks to have game-breaking qualities so will be one to watch.
Total: 9
Top-10 picks: 4
First-rounders no longer on list: 2
Average games by first-rounder: 53.5
B & Fs or All-Australians: 1 (Mills)
Summary: The Swans have managed to stay in the premiership hunt while rejuvenating their list with top-end talent, bringing in two top-five picks after one of their only two seasons outside the finals this past decade. There are high hopes for those players, McDonald and Campbell, who are emerging nicely. Mills has clearly been the pick of the bunch, becoming a star and leader. Stephens played 15 games last year but was yet to regularly shine. Ling, who was taken one spot ahead of Zac Bailey and just before Ed Richards, and Brandon Starcevich, did not pan out.
Total: 6
Top-10 picks: 1
First-rounders no longer on list: 2
Average games by first-rounder: 64.2
B & Fs or All-Australians: 0
Summary: Only Geelong has had fewer first-round selections over the past decade than West Coast. The Eagles have also had the equal-lowest number of top-10 picks – their sole one being Ginbey in November. They could certainly use more high-end talent coming through the ranks to complement their veterans. Sheed was a great pick, becoming a grand final hero in 2018. Duggan has also been a very good player for the Eagles. Concussion wrecked Venables’ career, while Brander was cut at the end of 2021. Injuries hampered Chesser in his debut campaign last year.
Total: 9
Top-10 picks: 5
Average games by first-rounder: 76.6
B & Fs or All-Australians: 1 (Bontempelli)
Summary: Bontempelli, along with Carlton’s Patrick Cripps, have arguably been the best two players drafted during the past decade. But the Bulldogs have also had several other quality selections. English could soon become one of the competition’s best ruckmen, Naughton was already an elite mark and Smith a game-breaking midfielder. Richards and Weightman are emerging nicely too. The club has also benefited from the Next Generation Academy and father-son programs to bring in highly-touted talls Ugle-Hagan and Darcy, who could be spearheads for the next 10 years. In all, the Bulldogs’ crop looks very strong.
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