AFL draft 2015: Fresh format but still involves the same guesswork, writes Jon Ralph

FOOTBALL unveil­ed a futuristic draft model but when the dust settled the AFL’s 30th national draft was still about picking kids who could turn into matchwinners.

2015 AFL Draft

FOOTBALL unveil­ed a futuristic draft model with more than a hint of cricket’s Duckworth Lewis system.

For the first time at a draft, complicated algorithms, “hidden picks”, future draft swaps and arcane points values took centre stage alongside the ­actual kids.

And just like cricket’s wet weather target system, a downright confusing system still seemed to spit out the right outcome in the end.

Clubs with father-son academy kids finally paid a fair price as selections they had hoarded for the next Isaac Heeney or Jonathan Brown evaporated into thin air.

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It was all bright and shiny and new — yet when the dust settled the AFL’s 30th national draft was still about picking kids who could turn into AFL matchwinners.

While it was the northern states clubs plucking academy kids — five of the first 16 — in truth this was all about heartland clubs who absolutely had to nail their picks.

Carlton just cannot afford to fail with its latest attempt at a rebuild, its four first-round selections ­its best chance of amassing the building blocks for that huge renovation.

After a litany of draft misses they at least secured the best mix of talent possible — and all Victorians.

Key defender Jacob Weitering was the no-brainer at pick No.1, 200cm key forward Harry McKay his bookend, and wildcard Charlie Curnow could prove much more than the 12th-best kid on offer.

Like no other night, the draft is about selling dreams to supporters, as recruiters and list managers whisper sweet nothings that often turn into fool’s gold.

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This time last year then Blues ­recruiter Shane Rogers said of his shock selection of Blaine Boekhorst: “it’s a bold pick, we have had a few bold picks. Let’s hope it works out.”

It worked out so well that Rogers is gone, Boekhorst might be a bust and the club’s much-spruiked 2014 draft haul is already looking shaky.

If Carlton is to stop being an AFL laughing stock this draft must be closer to Hawthorn’s 2004 Roughead-Franklin-Lewis haul than Richmond’s Tambling-Meyer-Pattison disaster of the same year.

Ditto with Melbourne, which gave up next year’s first-round pick and moved up the draft to No.3 — then picked an absolute bolter in hard-nut midfielder Clayton Oliver.

If he turns into the next Marcus Bontempelli — who rocketed up the draft order late — Melbourne is finally going places, but if he turns into Jimmy Toumpas 2.0, it might just end in tears.

Carlton coach Brendon Bolton presents the club jumper to Harry McKay. Picture: Getty Images

The night at the Adelaide Convention Centre itself was a mixed bag.

Some noisy hecklers up the back gave the night the atmosphere of a darts contest and the selections were treacle slow.

The first 10 picks took 30 minutes, just 26 were taken in the first hour and even Brendon Bolton seemed confused when calling out Weitering.

Richmond bid for two academy kids in Matthew Kennedy and Eric Hipwood before eventually taking Daniel Rioli.

It had some fans believing the Tigers had missed out, ­although they were just keeping Greater Western Sydney and Brisbane Lions honest in the bidding system.

The AFL wants the full-blown NFL-style treatment with its draft coverage, but right now we just don’t know enough about these kids to sustain a two-hour draft.

It might have been a confusing hot mess last night, but there were green shoots of ­regeneration all around.

The academy kids showed the AFL can make an impact in junior development in non-traditional states and the Lions’ four local boys means the go-home factor is minimised.