AFL Collingwood deep dive: Pies vulnerable in defence as premiership aspirations look shaky
Collingwood has been on top of the ladder for most of the season but the red warning lights are flashing as the Pies defence is leaking goals at a rate that is second worst in the AFL.
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The premiership favourite is in ugly company and there is some blood seeping into the water.
This season just three sides have conceded 100 points in three consecutive games – easybeats West Coast and North Melbourne, and now top-of-the-table Collingwood.
The red lights are flashing everywhere in Collingwood’s premiership aspirations and those lights are glaring in defence.
Craig McRae walked into the rooms on Friday night after Brisbane put up 19 goals and 124 points – the most the coach has let through in his 47 games leading Magpies – and wrote the Lions score on his whiteboard.
In the last three weeks, Collingwood has now averaged 110 points against.
Only West Coast (117.4) has been worse over the course of this season.
Before this most recent run, the Magpies had let an opponent hit triple figures just twice this year and it only happened twice in total last year.
Assistant coach Justin Leppitsch mid-season declared his concern with Collingwood was its attack, because the defence always stood up.
But the Lions smelled blood in the water on Friday night.
Forward Cam Rayner declared pre-game “if you can turn the ball over against this team, you can usually get them the other way”.
And Rayner’s Lions did get the Pies the other way, piling up 82 points off turnovers under the roof at Marvel Stadium, cutting swath through the black and white stripes.
Collingwood is missing skipper Darcy Moore from its backline and was caught in chaos on Friday night with Nathan Murphy (glute) and debutant Jakob Ryan (concussion) lost from the back six, but McRae thinks the issue goes further than the back third of the ground.
“There are many layers to it but tonight they transitioned the ball really well from kick-ins, that is one phase,” he said.
“We will get to work on this … will it take maybe more than one week to get it right, not sure. But we will be working hard to make sure the opposition doesn’t kick 124 points.”
Brisbane veteran Jarryd Lyons didn’t give away any state secrets when asked about why his team can go through the Pies like a knife through black and white butter.
“Have you seen our forward line?,” he responded.
“We just have to get the ball down to them sometimes and they do the rest. There are no secrets really, just play instinctively.”
The Lions were able to get it down to that star-packed forward half, with the suddenly consistent Joe Daniher, a firing Eric Hipwood and the electric Charlie Cameron all doing their bit.
Zac Bailey and Rayner booted two goals, and so did Cal Ah Chee before back spasms sidelined him.
As Lyons said, it was all about getting the ball to them for the Brisbane midfield – and more on that group later.
Brisbane actually went at the same rate as Collingwood when the ball was kicked inside-50: both sides scored a healthy 53 per cent of the time.
But the Lions had eight more forward entries than the Pies.
McRae’s seemingly endless bounds of positive energy showed some cracks post-game and while he didn’t show feed into any concern about his team’s flag hopes, he was pretty clear that improvement needed to be seen before finals.
A huge Friday night MCG meeting with Essendon is Collingwood’s last chance to show anything before the calendar flips over to September.
Collingwood should get Jordan De Goey (glute) and Bobby Hill (hamstring) back next week but the Pies wont risk the sore Murphy.
“You want to have certain parts of your game going well, it doesn’t need to be all humming along,” McRae said.
The Pies still remain the frontrunner for it all next month but you have to go back to the 2014 Hawks to find the last premiership side that let through 100 points in a game at least five times and won the flag.
HOWE TO HANDLE THE SWINGMAN DILEMMA
As Collingwood let through goal after goal on Friday night, defensive stalwart Jeremy Howe stood at the other end doing a job on Harris Andrews.
Sure, Andrews only had four disposals at half time but Howe was also having little impact.
He leapt into action in the third and booted two goals but the Lions also couldn’t be stopped.
McRae and his staff debated the move all night and decided at halftime to “back this in a little bit longer”.
Howe would finish the game in defence as Murphy sat on the pine but McRae leaned towards the idea of playing him forward when the whips are cracking.
“I think we are open minded, we’ll see what the opposition present and what our best balance is,” the coach pondered.
“Do we need to play two rucks again?”
And there is the other conundrum out of Friday night.
Aside from a first-quarter goal, Darcy Cameron was pummelled in the ruck by Oscar McInerney, particularly early.
The Lions had nine of the first 10 hit-outs and eight of the first nine clearances.
But that began to level up in the second half, when Cox came on as the sub for Ryan.
The Pies won the clearance count by two and the hit-outs by 14 in the third term, as Cox nullified McInerney in the ruck.
That forced Cameron to play forward, where he had little influence.
McRae praised the hunger of Cox after he was dropped a couple of weeks ago and the Pies will continue to ponder the second ruck question, with the inconsistent Ash Johnson or Dan McStay other options to chop out Cameron.
Or is it too late for Cox to make the play to be the No. 1 man for a qualifying final?
LACHIE LOCKS IN
Lachie Neale even brought it up himself on AFL 360 this week.
“I did get sent through something that said I was the 280-something ranked mid over the last month. I didn’t know there were even 280 mids in the competition,” he said on Tuesday.
The Brownlow medallist had been down on his own output in recent times as he carried soreness and illness and described his form as “average”.
The soreness was so bad that Chris Fagan even raised the idea of Neale taking this week off.
But he wasn’t having it and the superstar struck back, hoovering up 13 disposals in a powerful first quarter.
He finished with a triple-double: 31 disposals, 13 contested possessions and 10 clearances.
“His last few weeks have been down by his standards and he knew it but his first quarter tonight was electric, you knew he was on and moving well,” Lyons said.
“He has been sore for a few weeks so he was right back to his Brownlow best tonight.”
Neale, McInerney and Josh Dunkley led a powerful midfield domination for much of Friday night.
The heat was put on the on-ballers by Fagan during the week and he named Lyons as sub knowing that meant he was guaranteed he would get contested ball power for the whole four quarters.
“We had probably been beaten in the midfield in the last couple of weeks in contested ball so for me to come on in the last quarter, contested ball stays solid and that is sort of how I play,” Lyons said.
“We just smashed in all night and made it a bit dirty and that is a key to our game.”
Brisbane was first at the ball for most of the night, winning contested ball by nine.
The Lions have now beaten the Magpies in six straight games – no other team in the competition has a streak of even two wins.
None of those games have come at the MCG – which even Fagan was happy to have a jab at post-match – but the Lions know how to beat the Pies.
Brisbane should account for St Kilda at the Gabba next week and that will lock in a home final.
Since 2019 the Lions have won just two of their six home finals, with two of the losses coming by less than a kick.
“Home finals are great but we haven’t capitalised on them in the last couple of years,” Lyons said.
“A final at the Gabba would be great, we play it really well but finals are a different beast … they don’t win themselves.”
But with a firing Neale and that forward line, it’s hard to see anyone getting past the Lions at the Gabba.
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