AFL Brownlow Medal tracker 2023: The contenders chasing after the injured Nick Daicos
The money has come for Marcus Bontempelli after Nick Daicos’ injury, but has the superstar left his run too late? Check out the full Brownlow tracker here.
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Jimmy Bartel knew he was going to run out of tarmac.
On Brownlow Medal night in 2007, the star Cat arrived with his date, teammate Tim Callan, nervous he would be leading heading into the final games and get pipped given he missed the final two rounds of the season when his appendix was removed.
“I knew I’d played pretty well throughout the year. I didn’t think I was going to win but I also didn’t want to get there and get pipped because my appendix burst,” Bartel recalled this year.
Thankfully for the Geelong star, a three-vote effort in his last game in round 20 against the Kangaroos put him so far ahead that Bruce McAvaney broke tradition and declared him the winner with two more weeks of games to count.
As he nurses a sore knee, Collingwood wunderkind Nick Daicos will similarly be doing his sums, with Marcus Bontempelli and Christian Petracca close in.
Once the runaway favourite for football’s highest individual honour, Daicos will now sit out the final three weeks of the home-and-away season as a host of contenders work to close the gap.
And unlike Bartel, Daicos won’t have the solace of a star turn in his last game of the year to put him over the edge, having set a career-low with just five disposals as he was blanketed by Hawthorn human glove Finn Maginness on Saturday before he headed to the bench with his knee injury.
Daicos has a chance to hold on – on current projections by the Champion Data tracker he sits with 26.8 votes, just ahead of Petracca (24.2) and Bontempelli (21.1).
Brisbane’s Lachie Neale is within striking distance, while Tim Taranto is not far behind.
Brownlow Medal night is sure to be an enthralling count now and here is what the chasers have to do to haul in Daicos.
THE LEADER
Nick Daicos
Champion Data Brownlow tracker: 26.8
AFLCA Coaches votes after round 21: 99
Can he hold on? Daicos has suddenly dropped below Marcus Bontempelli and Christian Petracca in most Brownlow markets but given his runaway favouritism, he might have enough in the bank to still claim the medal.
Daicos played 20 home-and-away games this year, the same as Nat Fyfe in 2019 and Fyfe also won the medal in 2015 having played just 18 games. Gary Ablett Jr (2009) and Chris Judd (2010) also wore Charlie after playing just 19 games.
Lachie Neale won after playing 17 games in 2020, but that was the shortened Covid season.
No votes in his last game but Daicos surely would have polled in almost 15 others.
After being such short odds all year, is now the time to jump on Daicos given he has blown out?
THE CONTENDERS
Christian Petracca
Tracker: 24.2
Coaches votes: 89
A lot of the eyes turned to Marcus Bontempelli once Daicos went down, given the Dogs skipper’s sensational recent form.
But it has been Petracca who has been right on Daicos’ hammer all season and he would have continued to pick up votes whether he has played in the midfield or up forward.
Max Gawn has pinched some votes in recent weeks but the Dees have been winning so Petracca should still be adding to his tally.
The Demon is already ahead of Daicos in the Herald Sun Player of the Year, a system that uses the Brownlow’s 3-2-1 voting style.
One thing that may potentially hurt Petracca is the return of proven vote getting teammate Clayton Oliver from injury.
Votes needed in final three weeks: Petracca is in vote getting form. He likely needs four or five in the last three weeks to overtake Daicos.
Marcus Bontempelli
Tracker: 21.1
Coaches votes: 86
The big Dog is coming with a rush.
The ‘Bont’ surely polled three votes against Richmond on Friday and likely grabbed maximum value in round 18 and 19 as well, after he snared perfect 10s from the coaches in both of those outings.
Bontempelli polled 33 votes in 2021 to finish second to Ollie Wines and likely would have to reach those heights to claim the medal this year.
Votes needed: Probably need to make up a few votes on Petracca and likely needs five to six to get Daicos. May need to poll in all three in the home stretch.
Zak Butters
Tracker: 10.7
Coaches votes: 87
Expect a massive rush from Butters early in the Brownlow count – he led Daicos in the coaches votes by 13 after round 14.
But he polled just a single vote from the coaches over the next six weeks before a perfect 10 against Geelong last week.
Champion Data doesn’t rate his chances – the stats doyens rank him 28th in the count, well behind teammate Connor Rozee (10th).
Butters dominated Port Adelaide’s final round opponent Richmond in round 11, grabbing 32 disposals and booting a goal so he should feel comfortable there.
Votes needed: Most likely needs three big games to close the gap and make up seven to nine votes.
Lachie Neale
Tracker: 19.4
Coaches votes: 73
The Lion ball magnet was pipped by a single vote by Patrick Cripps last year and his numbers are similar – a tick less disposals but more clearances and better efficiency.
Neale is a proven vote getter and polled 26 in 2019, 31 to win it a year later and 28 as runner-up last year so expect him to edge past 20.
Brisbane faces Adelaide, Collingwood and St Kilda in the final three weeks, all teams that sit in Neale’s bottom half of teams he has polled against through his career.
Votes needed: The Lion likely needs to poll in all three games and make up seven to eight votes on Daicos.
Toby Greene
Tracker: 14.3
Coaches votes: 74
Forwards don’t win the Brownlow in the modern age but Greene’s sensational season should have him right in the running.
The Giants skipper isn’t a big poller – he has only hit double digits once, when he snagged 12 votes in 13 games in 2020 – which hurts him in the Champion Data tracker.
But he has kicked multiple goals in 16 of his 18 games and without him, GWS surely wouldn’t be inside the top eight.
Probably has a best-on-ground in round 20 and votes in round 19.
GWS has Carlton in round 24 and Greene managed just five disposals and a goal against the Blues back in round 3.
Votes needed: Not only does Greene need to go big in the final weeks for his Brownlow hopes but also his finals hopes. Three big games are needed for both causes.
Tim Taranto
Tracker: 18.2
Coaches votes: 63
Has had a fine first season in Richmond colours and could be within striking distance.
Taranto polled 15 votes back in 2021.
His Tigers have the Power in the last round – a team he gathered 33 disposals and four goals against in round 11.
Votes needed: A big final three rounds is needed, Taranto is likely behind by eight to nine votes.
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