AFL Brownlow Medal 2023: Why every top contender has a chance to win this year’s count
It is shaping up as one of the tightest Brownlow Medal counts in history. Who will take home footy’s top individual prize? We rate every contender.
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Nick Daicos’ all-consuming quest to return from a knee injury took away the focus on his Brownlow Medal favouritism, but he concedes he might start getting a little nervous when the count starts on Monday night.
But the Collingwood star – who is a $2.80 TAB favourite to win footy’s highest individual honour in only his second AFL season – says the medal he covets the most is a premiership one on offer to the winner of Saturday’s grand final against Brisbane.
Daicos, 20, made a strong comeback for his first game in almost 50 days on Friday night and says the work he put in to make it back kept his focus well and truly off the Brownlow.
“To be honest I really haven’t thought about it,” Daicos said. “Tom Mitchell (the 2018 Brownlow winner) asked me before how I was feeling because he can sort of relate to it.”
“I have been so focused on getting back (from a hairline fracture in his knee) which has sort of consumed me so much during the finals.
“Now we are through to a grand final, my eyes and focus are set on how I can best prepare for Saturday. There might be a little bit of nerves (on Monday) going and being there with the players and experiencing it.”
Daicos had an extraordinary season before it was derailed by injury against Hawthorn in round 21 which meant he missed the final three games of the season.
His brother Josh, who will garner more than a few votes himself after an All-Australian year, and his famous father Peter are hoping Nick can hold in the last few rounds.
“It is super exciting for Nick, we are so proud of the season he has had,” Josh said.
“It will definitely make our night a bit longer. We would love to get to bed nice and early, but hopefully Nick has done enough before he got injured (to win).
“We are looking forward to cheering Nick home.”
Magpies legend Peter Daicos said the past few seasons had been a “whirlwind” as Nick and Josh have elevated their games to new levels off the back of hard work.
“We just keep getting the niceties of what footy can bring,” Peter said.
“If he (Nick) is able to get close (to winning), fantastic. But we will let it play out.
“I don’t think he will be that far away. It would (be another reward) for the club, what they have been able to create over the last two years has been so special.”
If Nick Daicos takes home ‘Charlie’ tomorrow night, he would be Collingwood’s 10th Brownlow Medal winner, and the last since Dane Swan in 2011.
The past three Magpies’ Brownlow Medal winners have played in a losing grand final on the following weekend – Swan, Nathan Buckley (2003) and Peter Moore (1979).
But as Peter Moore said on Sunday, he doesn’t believe in those sorts of curses.
Beside the first three Collingwood Brownlow Medal winners – Syd Coventry (1927), Albert Collier (1929) and Harry Collier (1930) won flags in the same year.
THE CASE FOR BONTEMPELLI
The Bulldogs superstar is a good poller. He finished second behind Wines in 2021 and has notched at least 19 votes on three other occasions.
His 2021 tally of 33 votes would have won the medal in all but four seasons since the VFL reverted to the standard 3-2-1 system in 1978.
Champion Data has Bontempelli firmly in the race this year, its metric placing him on 24.58 votes, just behind Christian Petracca (26.74) and Nick Daicos (26.81) in a system that gives votes per game to the decimal point. On five occasions in 2023, Bontempelli booted multiple goals along with at least 29 disposals.
Much of the night will hinge on the final rounds, with Daicos likely to go voteless over the final five rounds of the season.
Bontempelli should reel in three votes for a 32-disposal, three-goal effort in round 21.
His fortunes could rest on how he polls with 31 disposals and one goal in a loss to West Coast in round 23, and 31 touches in a come-from-behind win over Geelong a week later.
He will also walk into Crown with a speech in his suit jacket, just in case.
“You have to prepare yourself in case it potentially does happen, mentally,” Bontempelli said.
“A long time ago I gave up trying to anticipate how things might pan out, and you more or less just go for the ride. Free yourself up for if it happens, it happens, and if you are involved you are involved. But it is a really difficult thing to turn your mind to.”
Bontempelli put himself down the pack of medal hopefuls.
“There are a number of blokes who have had outstanding seasons from a midfield perspective and even forwards,” he said.
“You are hoping it will be an even spread of vote-getters and a really good night, but no idea, really.”
THE CASE FOR PETRACCA
Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver have both finished in the top 10 in the past three Brownlow Medal counts, something that’s not likely to happen again this year.
But there is a chance that one of them may finally lay claim to Charlie.
For the first time in four seasons one has had the chance to play without the other for an extended period of time, to be the dominant figure, to stake claim to as many votes as possible. And it means this year’s Brownlow could be Petracca’s.
Retired Demons forward David Neitz, who has watched Petracca’s career closely, said it had been a unique and brilliant season for the club’s bull. “I think it has been a really selfless season in a lot of ways,” Neitz said.
“I am sure a lot of players that are really good at extracting the footy like Christian might want to spend more time on the ball.
“The role he has needed to play was up forward. He has spent more time up there and plugged a few gaps that the Demons have had and he has just done it magnificently well.
“He is a bit of a rare beast.”
During the 10 games Oliver missed, Petracca’s numbers grew – his average disposals, contested possessions, clearances, goals, score involvements and tackles all going up.
It’s why, nearly universally, Petracca has placed in the top three in player of the year tallies and Brownlow Medal forecasts.
THE CASE FOR BUTTERS
From his local team celebrating in a pigeon shed to him being the toast of the AFL at Crown Palladium 48 hours later. … that may be in store for Port Adelaide star Zak Butters.
Butters watched his junior side Darley win the Ballarat league’s grand final on Saturday.
The Devils saluted the one-point success in their makeshift changerooms at Bacchus Marsh Homing Pigeon Club.
After wearing a Darley hat and jumper at the game, the midfielder will switch into a suit to attend the Brownlow Medal in Melbourne tonight as one of the count’s favourites.
The midfielder’s performances have garnered plenty of attention this season, leading to him receiving the AFL Coaches’ Association Player of the Year Award, his first All-Australian blazer and the players’ association’s Robert Rose Most Courageous gong.
His manager Mark Kleiman says Butters’ standout traits this year – smarts, skilfulness, bravery, passion – have always been part of his kitbag.
Butters elevated his game this year after becoming a full-time midfielder. He is third favourite to claim the Brownlow, behind Nick Daicos (Collingwood) and Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs).
Coaches gave Butters the maximum 10 votes in seven games this season, and he won their award with 109. He was seven clear of Bontempelli and 10 ahead of Daicos.
THE CASE FOR NEALE
Two years ago then-reigning Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale came close to giving up on the Brisbane Lions’ premiership pursuit and returning to Western Australia.
The midfielder was not long removed from one of the most dominant seasons in AFL history. His 2020 campaign, comprising a Brownlow Medal, Leigh Matthews Trophy and AFLCA Player of the Year, came after leading the league in disposals and contested possessions en route to a second All-Australian selection and club best-and-fairest.
He polled 31 Brownlow votes in a shortened 18-game season to blitz the field by 10 votes.
History shows Neale declared his Lions allegiance, responded with a runner-up showing in the 2022 Brownlow Medal, and took over the captaincy in 2023 on a fresh, long-term deal. For what he has achieved in five short seasons, the 30-year-old is already at his peak.
And there is plenty more still to come.
Neale is one of the main fancies at tonight’s Brownlow Medal count but perhaps not considered a genuine contender – certainly in the eyes of the bookies.
He is the only player among the top five not to earn an All-Australian blazer in 2023, despite a campaign in which he registered the most clearances and third-most contested possessions in the AFL.
It’s testament to the incredibly high bar he has set himself that a man who could win a second Brownlow Medal has, by some pundits’ measure, had a down season.
But Brisbane great Alastair Lynch says Neale’s impact has been just as important as previous years.
“His previous two (complete) seasons were probably his best two, but he’s still such an important part (of the Lions) and played at such a high level,” Lynch said.
There will be times during the count that Neale will not be expected to poll. But his standout performances – often when the Lions most needed him to stand up – have been among the brilliant best of his career.
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