AFL Adelaide v Port Adelaide news: Can Crows win a close one if Showdown goes down to wire?

The Crows lead games more than half of the time, but are one of the worst offenders for losing tight games. So where does it all fall apart? We analyse the numbers.

The Crows are struggling in the close ones. Picture:Getty Images

The Crows need to cash in.

Adelaide is among the top teams in the competition for time in front in games, leading games this season for 54 per cent of the time.

But an inability to capitalise on that momentum is proving costly and when it comes to falling short in close ones, the Crows are falling victim more than any others.

Adelaide has dropped three games this season by less than 10 points, including last week’s four-point defeat at the hands of Melbourne.

Despite the heartbreaking loss to the Dees, was it an indication they’re starting to turn things around late in games?

The first portion of the final term was where it was going wrong for the Crows.

Adelaide fell four points short of Melbourne in round 18. Picture: AFL Photos

Against Melbourne, they kicked the first four goals of the last quarter.

Across the season in the first 10 minutes of fourth quarters, Adelaide is -30 for points – making it 14th in the competition coming out of the blocks in the crucial run to the final siren.

Despite the improvement on the offensive end late last week, it was the Crows’ leaky defence that caused issues.

The Demons were allowed to score 60 per cent of the time per inside 50, with the Crows -10 for inside 50s and -12 for clearances.

Dual Crows premiership skipper Mark Bickley said it has to be about “owning the little moments” citing Collingwood’s uncanny ability to close out narrow victories as the benefit of both experience and being able to tighten the screws when it matters most.

“They don’t make the mistakes in the last quarter that give up goals,” Bickley said.

“I think that’s where Adelaide are probably at in their build at the moment. They’re the second-youngest list in the competition. They’ve improved a lot, so they’re in games now, but there’s just moments in the last quarter where they’ll make an error and it’ll gift a goal to the opposition that takes the pressure off.

“Or they’ll fumble a ball where they would have been going forward but instead it goes the other way and the opposition go forward and lock it in their forward line. It’s about those little moments.”

For the sixth-best team at leading games, the Crows are equal highest in the competition for narrow losses.

Since 2018, four Showdown clashes with Port Adelaide have been decided by five or less points – with the result evenly split.

Bickley said watching first-hand as Collingwood mowed down Port Adelaide last week had only reinforced his belief, and that Adelaide would only continue to benefit from the experience of tight defeats.

Crows skipper Jordan Dawson, left, says his team needs to perfect the little moments. Picture: Keryn Stevens

“There’s all those little things that other teams tend to fluff, whereas Collingwood seem to get them all right,” he said.

“To me, that’s where Adelaide’s development will come. As they get more experienced, they’ll start to get those moments right more often than not. When you get exposed to them … they would do their review on Monday and probably play four or five things from the last quarter where they say ‘how about that?’.

“They seem pretty straightforward on a Monday, but in the cut and thrust when you’re a young player and you’re playing on the ‘G against the top sides, you sometimes miss those opportunities to shine.

“Every time you go through that experience, you get a little bit better at it. You understand it a bit better.

“Collingwood in the last two years, they’ve probably done it 16 or 17 times. They’ve had good experience with it, so it doesn’t faze them.”

Current Adelaide captain Jordan Dawson said this week that last week’s four-point loss to Melbourne had been “the story of our year, really”, with costing themselves early in front of goal proving painful.

“You put yourself on the back foot early with inaccuracy and they took their chances,” Dawson said.

“It has a lot to do with the inexperience I think, but we have got experience this year being so close.

“We are wanting to get better and we are learning … we have to be better in those moments to get the win.”

Originally published as AFL Adelaide v Port Adelaide news: Can Crows win a close one if Showdown goes down to wire?