AFL 2024: More crazy comebacks than ever before in amazing season
It’s not just your team that can’t hold a lead this season. The stats show we are in the middle of the craziest year for comebacks in modern times. JOSH BARNES looks at why teams can’t hang on.
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No lead is safe.
When Collingwood broke out to a 27-point lead two minutes into the final quarter on Friday night, you just knew Sydney would throw another punch and stage some sort of comeback.
What about when the Lions were up by 30 points at the first break the next day and Adam Kingsley marched down to the Gabba turf, put a rocket up his Giants and orchestrated a come-from-behind win?
You aren’t imaging things, in this season a lead is harder to hold than ever before.
So far in 2024, teams have led by at least 30 points on 135 occasions and lost 11 of those matches.
That is the most comebacks from five goals down or more Champion Data has in its database since 2015, surpassing the nine we saw in the 2022 campaign.
Some have been all-time bounce-backs.
The Pies pulled off a monster back in round 14, roaring back from 54 points down to edge the Kangaroos.
It feels like a long time ago now, but the second-biggest comeback of the season so far was in the second game of the year, when the Blues brothers roared in the stands at the Gabba and Carlton reeled in a 46-point deficit to top Brisbane.
The Giants ran past the Lions on Saturday, a week after coming back from 29 points down against the Hawks.
Young forward Darcy Jones pondered whether turning the tide is a mental thing, where teams these days feel they can peg any lead back, unlike in past generations when heads would drop if a gap opened up on the scoreboard.
“We do a lot of headspace stuff, like handling the pressure and that sort of stuff,” he said.
“It must be working because it kind of almost looks like we thrive off being down and having that pressure. We all just come together and there is a bit of desperation as well and it just shows how much we want it.”
For two years Craig McRae’s Magpies were the kings of the close finish and reeled opposition sides in like barramundi.
But even McRae was left to ponder if his team had picked the wrong method in holding on to the Friday night lead.
Several times this year, Collingwood appeared to go into its shell in the final term and protect a game instead of carrying on to win it.
“Chasing a lead versus holding on to a lead, I reckon most coaches would be sitting there going: what do we need to do different? Because not many are doing it well,” McRae said.
“Last week (against Carlton) we just hung on by our fingernails and (against Sydney) we didn’t. Again we will have some reflection around that.”
Chasing teams continue to love the 6-6-6 rule as it helps them power past opponents like Cam McEvoy in the Paris pool.
Essendon burst past Fremantle in round 22 thanks to 12 minutes of perfect football, as centre bounce breaks saw them turn a 25-point deficit to a seven-point lead in the middle of the fourth term.
It took another centre break from Zach Merrett to secure Sam Durham’s matchwinning point.
Without the chance to set up loose men, defences often put wingers at the back of the square to try and hold on to a lead and players charge off the half-forward line to bottle the game.
But holding the game up is harder than ever, particularly with the tighter holding the ball interpretation making it difficult to sit on the footy and keep it in congestion to wind down the clock.
Perhaps McRae sees himself as to blame given his ability to open the ground up and chase a result.
“I think the game is harder than ever to maintain a lead,” he said.
“I’m watching last week, Essendon did the same thing to Freo.
“We had to go through it the last couple of weeks, being in a position to win the game and having to hold on. I am just reflecting myself now without the vision in front of me but you are thinking, maybe the method is not the right one.
“This is a competition thing. We started some stuff a couple of years ago that makes it really hard to hold a lead if you take enormous risk. Credit to Sydney they really got their game going from contest and here we are.”
But sometimes the best laid plans can just be undone by a dominant quarter from a star opponent.
McRae couldn’t remember a player impacting a quarter like Swan Isaac Heeney did in the final term on Friday, while a week earlier his side only just escaped a rampaging Patrick Cripps.
It is not just the big leads that are hard to hold.
So far this year, 26 teams have come from behind at three quarter-time to win games.
That isn’t the top of the tree, with 2022’s season having seen 37 fourth-term turnarounds, but there is still time for this year to catch up.
Fremantle – or as Code Sports scribe Eliza Reilly has dubbed them, Fademantle – has coughed up the most leads, having lost from leading at the final change to Geelong for the fifth time this season.
The Dockers are great through three quarters, equalling Sydney in leading heading into the final term in 16 games, but the Swans have only lost two of those matches.
Port Adelaide has come from behind in the last term the most, having won in four of 10 games they have trailed at three quarter-time.
Remarkably, in four of the first five games of last round, the team that trailed into the final break ran over the top.
Good luck holding on.
THE TOP FIVE CRAZIEST COMEBACKS OF 2024
Round 10: Port Adelaide 11.14 (80) def Hawthorn 12.7 (79)
Biggest deficit: 41 points
There have been bigger margins given up but no team has coughed up an 11-point lead with 30 seconds on the clock.
Willie Rioli goaled from a free kick before Darcy Byrne-Jones soccered the Power ahead, with still six seconds to spare.
The Hawks led by 41 points late in the third term but couldn’t close it out.
Round 14: North Melbourne 19.4 (118) def by Collingwood 18.11 (119)
Biggest deficit: 54 points
Only two other games this century have seen bigger comebacks than this, after Cam Zurhaar put the Roos up by 54 points in the first minute of the third term.
This game had it all, including the grandstand finish as North Melbourne fans will still tell you that Bailey Scott should have been given a 50-metre penalty and a shot at goal inside the last 45 seconds.
Even after that, Zac Fisher’s snap looked like it would win the game but just curled too far.
Opening round: Brisbane Lions 12.13 (85) def by Carlton 13.8 (86)
Biggest deficit: 46 points
The Lions had 14 of the first 17 scoring shots and led by 46 points early in the second quarter at home but somehow the Blues pegged them back.
It came down to a clutch set shot from Harry McKay to put the Blues up with just under two minutes left.
Round 22: North Melbourne 14.13 (97) def by West Coast 15.12 (102)
Biggest deficit: 35 points
How did the Roos lose this?
With six minutes to go they were up by 19 points and feeling comfortable.
Even with 90 seconds to go, the lead was at 13.
But somehow West Coast snagged the last three goals with Oscar Allen pinching it with an excellent snap over his shoulder.
Round 21: GWS Giants 12.12 (84) def Hawthorn 12.10 (82)
Biggest deficit: 29 points
Not in the biggest 11 comebacks of the season in terms of points but this was another stolen game.
The Giants kicked three goals in the final five minutes to snatch it, as Tom Green sealed the game with a left-foot snap.
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