AFL 2024: Carlton’s run home analysed — could Blues really miss finals?
If Carlton wins every game during its run home, a qualifying final at the MCG is guaranteed. But from there, its path to a premiership gets murky. MATT FORREST breaks down every possible scenario.
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Form is a funny thing in football.
There has been four premiership favourites at different times this season, and could well be five or even six by the end of the home-and-away season.
Sydney is the current favourite, but Brisbane’s form is the best in the competition, and if the Hawks and Bulldogs make the eight they’ll both be dangerous sides to play in September.
Carlton has spent patches as the flag favourites this year, but while the Blues sit second on the ladder with five weeks to go, their recent form has been patchy at best.
An unconvincing win over 17th placed North Melbourne was Carlton’s first victory since beating the 18th placed Tigers in round 16.
But while the Blues have had just one victory in the past three rounds, they still sit inside the top four.
Only one trip out of Victoria will certainly help Carlton find its mojo before finals.
But while the Eagles are not easybeats on their home deck, beating the 16th-placed side is expected for a team vying for a premiership.
St Kilda at Marvel Stadium in round 24, with the Saints out of the finals picture, should also be a winnable game for Carlton as the Blues look to lock in a home final and the double chance.
The run of games between rounds 20 and 22 will decide whether the Blues finish second behind Sydney, have to travel for a qualifying final, or even play in an elimination final in week one.
If the Blues win all five games on the run home, they’ll host a home qualifying final, likely against Brisbane, at the MCG.
Drop any of the five games, and suddenly the path through September gets a little harder.
The Lions are the most in-form team in the competition at the moment, having knocked off Sydney at the weekend and not copping a loss since the 25-point defeat to Hawthorn before the bye.
Brisbane is currently two points behind Carlton due to a draw against Adelaide, meaning percentage is meaningless for the two sides.
If Carlton suffers a loss in the final five weeks, it risks having to travel to either Sydney to face the Swans, or to Brisbane to play the Lions in the first week of finals.
While Port Adelaide is the first test, with the two sides meeting on Friday night at Marvel Stadium, Collingwood and Hawthorn at the MCG in rounds 21 and 22 will be tough battles as well.
Carlton has lost four of its last five games against Collingwood despite the Magpies’ poor recent form, while Hawthorn has been the hottest team in football, excluding the Lions.
WHAT IF THE FORM DIP CONTINUES?
It’s hard to see it happening, but if they only win one of their final five games, it could be a quiet September for Blues fans.
No wins and the Blues definitely won’t make September, but if Carlton wins only one game, there’s two ways they sneak in.
Firstly, if they beat Port Adelaide in round 20 or Hawthorn in round 22, but lose the rest of their games, their percentage should be enough to hold onto eighth over the team they beat.
Secondly, if they lose to Port Adelaide but win another game (against West Coast or St Kilda), Carlton would need GWS to knock off Hawthorn.
Two wins will have Carlton hosting an elimination final, likely against Port Adelaide, Hawthorn or the Giants, while three wins should be enough to get a double chance.
But their place on the ladder also depends on how Fremantle, Geelong and Brisbane finish their respective seasons.
Geelong suffered a loss at home to the Western Bulldogs in a classic eight-point game.
A win would have propelled the Cats into the top four, like Brisbane’s victory over the Swans did, however now Geelong will be battling for the double chance.
Fremantle’s win over Melbourne gives the Dockers a great shot at securing a qualifying final berth, with West Coast, Essendon, Geelong, GWS and Port Adelaide on the run home, with only the games against the Bombers and the Giants away from Optus Stadium.
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