AFL 2023: Mick McGuane analyses the Melbourne vs. Carlton semi-final
Both the Dees and Blues are missing forwards, but that doesn’t mean either side don’t have a player who could explode. Mick McGuane analyses the Blues-Dees clash.
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Melbourne will be desperate to avoid back-to-back straight-sets finals exits on Friday night against a Carlton side which has come with a bullet in the second half of the season.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane breaks down both teams to try and find who will progress to a preliminary final showdown against the Brisbane Lions.
MELBOURNE
STRENGTHS
It’s all about contest, defence and territory for the Demons.
This group thrives on competing in pursuit of winning their own ball, led by a reliable group of players through the midfield in Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca.
Jack Viney was poor in the qualifying final against Collingwood, but rarely produces two bad games in a row and will be fired up this week.
The contest and clearance dominance that Melbourne so often has allows them to generate deep entries into their forward line and create opportunities close to goal.
In turn, the territory dominance provides a chance for the Demons’ defenders to come in behind their attack and set up the ground defensively to ensure the ball lives in Melbourne’s forward half.
Over the past six rounds, Melbourne has recorded a time in forward half differential of +16min 51sec — ranked No. 1 in the competition.
WEAKNESSES
Inside-50 entries and conversion have haunted Melbourne this year and again let them down in last week’s qualifying final.
The Demons recorded 69 inside-50s against Collingwood — 32 more than the Magpies — but took only nine marks inside the arc and logged a season-low score per inside-50 percentage of just 26 per cent.
There were far too many slow, down-the-line dump kicks that allowed Collingwood’s defenders to influence in the air.
Against a defensively sound Carlton side, Melbourne must change its method.
The forwards need to lead up at the leg of the kicker or create space to get the ball over the back.
The Demons could also look to use some ‘dirty ball’ entries to generate more ground ball opportunities.
OPPORTUNITIES
The loss of key forward Jacob Van Rooyen to suspension provides Melbourne with a great opportunity to try something different up forward.
What the Demons have been doing in attack in recent weeks hasn’t worked, but a smaller and faster forward line could be the answer.
Playing another small forward could help Melbourne’s forward-half pressure game — which is already strong — and allow the side to generate even more forward-half intercepts and scoring opportunities.
If the small forwards can get up the ground and then get back inside-50 at speed, they could turn the Carlton defenders inside-out.
Speed kills.
Or do they bring in Daniel Turner to potentially be a swing man?
THREATS
Carlton’s stoppage game and contested brand of football is a force to be reckoned with.
This challenged Melbourne last time these two sides met in round 22 and the Blues also dominated in this area of the game after quarter-time against Sydney in their elimination final last week.
Not only has Carlton proven a dominant side at winning contested possessions, ground balls and clearances this year, but its defensive and midfield group also applies great pressure and generated a season-high 58 intercept possessions between the arcs against Sydney last week.
If Melbourne’s midfielders are even marginally off their game, they will pay a price.
CARLTON
STRENGTHS
It’s all about brutality at the contest for the Blues.
The reason why they are playing finals footy is that they have mastered the ability to compete strongly, particularly around stoppages.
Carlton has also shown a great ability in the second half of the season to get the ball inside-50 and then squeeze the ground, making it very hard for opposition sides to penetrate through.
Jacob Weitering is at the top of his game at the defensive end, Charlie Curnow is at the top of his game at the attacking end and the Blues’ midfield are in sync with each other and have clearly got to work.
They win more than their fair share of contested footy at ground level and in the air post-clearance and that will again be a very important factor within this semi-final.
WEAKNESSES
Carlton’s forward-half conversion has to be put on notice and will be tested against a very strong and stingy Melbourne defence led by Steven May and Jake Lever.
Against Sydney in their elimination final, the Blues scored from just 34 per cent of their inside-50s — seven per cent below the AFL average.
Their kick inside-50 retention rate was also poor at just 36 per cent — 11 per cent below the AFL average.
If you give the ball back to Melbourne’s defence through poor decision making or execution, you’ll struggle to score.
Taking a mark inside-50, bringing the ball to ground or creating a forward-50 stoppage are paramount against Melbourne’s defence.
The big question is: If May can do a number on Curnow, where is the Blues’ score going to come from?
OPPORTUNITIES
The Blues have a great opportunity to double-team Max Gawn and physically challenge and work him overtime.
Marc Pittonet will likely start in the ruck, with Tom De Koning spending more time forward in the absence of Harry McKay.
Both will spend big minutes on the ground and when they do take the ruck duties, they must work over Gawn as much as possible.
The Melbourne skipper has a great ability to win crucial contested possessions, as well as being able to slide back to support his defence and slide forward to provide a marking target for down-the-line kicks.
Pittonet has to be outwardly aggressive and in the face of Gawn, while both ruckman need to make sure that Gawn is not allowed to control the air.
The duo need to at least bring the ball to ground in marking contests if they want to dethrone the competition’s star ruckman.
Carlton has invested heavily in Pittonet and De Koning into the future.
It will be a footy audit for them both, so Friday night we’ll see whether it has been money well spent.
THREATS
The Blues’ biggest threat might be themselves and their own ball use coming out of defensive 50.
Melbourne is likely to dominate territory for at least parts of this game and when Carlton wins the ball back, it will need to work out how to penetrate a well-structured Demons’ team defence.
Do they run and gun through handball?
Do they use short 45’s to get through and over?
Or do they shift the ball from one side to the other at speed to get around Melbourne’s team defence?
The Demons’ ability to generate front-half intercepts has been a feature of their game this season, while they have also been the hardest team in the competition to move the ball against.
Under the pressure Melbourne’s front half brings, Carlton’s kicks and handball chains coming out of defensive 50 will need to be precise.
If the Blues don’t master secure ball movement in this area of the ground, the Demons’ small forwards could get out the back on turnover and punish them on the scoreboard.
MAGNET BOARD
Given Melbourne’s forward-line woes, I’d be looking to play Christian Petracca 60 per cent forward and only 40 per cent of time in the midfield.
The Demons can rely on the likes of Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney through the midfield to provide their forwards with enough supply.
Nic Newman looks the likely opponent when Petracca is forward so isolation is a must.
There will need to be some opponent control on Patrick Cripps through Oliver or at times Petracca around stoppages.
Melbourne won’t apply a tag but they will need to be wary of Cripps, who is so often Carlton’s first-possession fire-starter.
Expect Steven May to go to Charlie Curnow in a match-up that looms as a promoter’s dream.
Curnow might have more speed on the lead, but May will use his experience and bodywork to check him early and could make it a tough night for the Coleman Medal winner.
One of the stars for the Blues last week, Matt Cottrell could expose the Demons with his running ability and speed if he again works hard up and down the ground.
Melbourne must try and isolate Kysaiah Pickett in a smaller forward line when Petracca goes on ball.
Pickett has been in a rut in recent weeks, but could be a game-breaker for the Demons if he can rediscover his best football and hit the scoreboard.
A four-goal haul wouldn’t surprise.
Adam Saad or Alex Cincotta will need to be flexible and accountable on Pickett.
MICK’S TIP
Melbourne by two points
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