AFL 2023: Experts predict changes for preliminary final teams
Carlton has the luxury of welcoming back Harry McKay and Jack Martin but that spells heartbreak for two unlucky Blues. Our experts pick the ins and outs of every preliminary finalist.
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Carlton is facing a selection crunch ahead of Saturday’s preliminary final while the Lions are anxiously sweating on the fitness of a star defender. See our AFL experts’ big calls at the selection table.
MARK ROBINSON
BRISBANE LIONS
The only issue is Jack Payne’s ankle if it doesn’t recover. If he misses, Darcy Gardiner returns for another crack. Jack Gunston also misses because he’s not match hardened, which was what we saw with Charlie Dixon.
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CARLTON
Holland stays sub because his run is valuable, so it’s between Owies, Cuningham and Motlop for Jack Martin. Owies pressures as does Motlop, but Motlop has capabilities to kick a goal. Owies incredibly stiff.
Ins: Harry McKay, Jack Martin
Outs: Matt Kennedy, Matt Owies
COLLINGWOOD
Hear that? That’s Pat Lipinski’s sigh of relief because he might’ve been in the gun for Daicos until Taylor Adams hurt his hamstring. Ginnivan stays sub because he brings energy.
Ins: Nick Daicos
Outs: Taylor Adams
GWS GIANTS
Unless there is soreness from Saturday night’s triumph, there will be no changes.
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SAM LANDSBERGER
BRISBANE LIONS
Jack Payne seems like the only watch at the Lions, but surely the underrated stopper will get up after two byes in three weeks. The Lions look relatively settled and it would be a surprise if they spring many changes as Chris Fagan looks to crack through for a maiden grand final as senior coach.
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CARLTON
I suspect it will be Cuningham and Owies out for McKay and Martin, with Ollie Hollands to remain as the substitute. But I wonder if they will consider dropping Matthew Kennedy instead of Cuningham to ensure they aren’t too slow against the Lions at the Gabba. Either way you look at it, you can bank on the Blues being stronger than they were in the semi-final, and Charlie will enjoy having Harry back as co-pilot.
Ins: Harry McKay, Jack Martin
Outs: David Cuningham, Matt Owies
COLLINGWOOD
The Daicos dilemma – who would make way for the Brownlow Medal favourite – was solved by the cruel blow to Taylor Adams at training on Friday. Still think Tom Mitchell was a chance to be overlooked given how crucial it will be to match the Giants’ leg speed and spread on Friday night. Mitchell played just 11 minutes in the final quarter of the qualifying final and was substituted in or out of three of the final seven home-and-away games. But it seems a straightforward swap now, with Jack Ginnivan likely to again be the substitute.
Ins: Nick Daicos
Outs: Taylor Adams (hamstring)
GWS GIANTS
Settled and in super touch. The only question is whether Xavier O’Hallaran or Nick Haynes gets a guernsey as the substitute. I’d be backing O’Hallaran again after he stepped up against St Kilda when Stephen Coniglio was a late withdrawal.
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SCOTT GULLAN
BRISBANE LIONS
Can’t see any reason why Chris Fagan would be changing the Lions outfit that looked so slick against Port Adelaide.
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CARLTON
Matt Kennedy is an obvious straight swap for Harry McKay while David Cuningham has been quiet in the two finals and could be the other unlucky one. Matt Owies and Lachie Fogarty would also be under the microscope with Jesse Motlop a guarantee after again kicking crucial goals when they mattered against Melbourne. Youngster Ollie Hollands should be the sub again after his last quarter heroics against Demons.
Ins: Harry McKay, Jack Martin
Outs: Matt Kennedy, David Cuningham
COLLINGWOOD
Adams pinging his hammie helped avoid a potential selection drama for Craig McRae, who had to find a spot for Daicos. The leg speed of the Giants’ small forwards may see John Noble come under consideration again but the coach likes Patrick Lipinski so will go with him again, while Jack Ginnivan works well as the sub.
In: Nick Daicos
Out: Taylor Adams
GWS GIANTS
While there are concerns over the shoulder injury for Kieren Briggs you’d expect the big fella to get to the line. Like the Lions, the Giants don’t really need to alter the line-up with Nick Haynes working as the sub given his flexibility.
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GLENN McFARLANE
BRISBANE LIONS
Two queries for the Lions, but the likelihood is that they will stick with a winning formula. Jack Payne is expected to be fit to play, but he will be a watch throughout the week. At the other end of the ground, Jack Gunston will likely be available to play, but his lack of match conditioning will likely see Chris Fagan stick with the status quo.
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CARLTON
Semi-final matchwinner Blake Acres seems certain to play despite carrying that collarbone issue for weeks, while Sam Docherty had an easy day on Monday with his shoulder issue. Two massive ins are likely with Harry McKay making good progression from his concussion and Jack Martin thankful now that his two-game ban was downgraded to one. The tough calls could come on Matt Kennedy and David Cuningham, who was subbed out last week to allow Ollie Hollands to bring some legspeed to the game late.
In: Harry McKay, Jack Martin
Out: David Cuningham, Matt Kennedy
COLLINGWOOD
Anyone who saw Nick Daicos’ 20 minutes of match simulation on Friday would know he is ready to go. He could spend some time off half back, but there will be some midfield minutes as well. The minor hamstring strain for a luckless Taylor Adams avoids another big omission for at least another week, as Adams will doing all he can to try to return of the Pies get over the line.
In: Nick Daicos
Out: Taylor Adams
GWS GIANTS
It is hard to see the Giants making any chance to the side that ended Port Adelaide’s season last Saturday, unless Kieren Briggs’ shoulder issue gets worse by the end of the week. As it sits now, the Giants expect him to play and he will be crucial in the plan to outpoint Mason Cox and Darcy Cameron.
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JOSH BARNES
BRISBANE LIONS
Even with flag-credentialed Jack Gunston waiting in the wings, it’s hard to see any changes coming for the Lions. The forward line certainly doesn’t need much tweaking. Chris Fagan has been happy with Jarryd Lyons as his sub of choice and Lyons has worn the vest so often, it is second nature to him.
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CARLTON
It’s pretty cut and dried at Carlton – Harry McKay (concussion) and Jack Martin (suspension) must return to help a battling forward half. Even as he pushes through pain, it’s hard to see Sam Docherty missing with his shoulder injury. David Cuningham struggled and was subbed out in the semi-final, and doesn’t provide the same gut-busting run and defensive pressure as Matt Owies and Matt Cottrell. Meanwhile, Matt Kennedy didn’t quite nail his defensive role on Jake Lever. Muddying the waters was Ollie Hollands’ outstanding job as the sub, a role he should retain.
In: Harry McKay, Jack Martin
Out: David Cuningham, Matt Kennedy
COLLINGWOOD
Taylor Adams’ hammy blow made things much easier for the Pies this week. Surely he is a straight swap for the returning Nick Daicos. With a fleet-footed Giants defence, Craig McRae must be up at night worrying about defensive pressure and whether playing two rucks is the right call, but with GWS big man Kieren Briggs winged, double-teaming him might create a midfield advantage.
In: Nick Daicos
Out: Taylor Adams (hamstring)
GWS GIANTS
Eyes will be focused on Briggs and his shoulder leading into Friday. The No.1 ruck choice at the start of the season Brandon Preuss is fit after a back injury torpedoed his year and should be ready to come in if needed. After two strong finals, not much else for the Giants to worry about at selection.
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CALLUM DICK
BRISBANE LIONS
A massive watch on Jack Payne’s availability ahead of Saturday with the key defender battling an ankle injury since the qualifying final win over Port. Lions are hopeful he will be fit to face the Blues but if not, Darcy Gardiner will be called up to cover. Does Jack Gunston get a look-in if he proves his fitness? All going well the Lions should go in unchanged.
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CARLTON
If Brisbane has a weakness it’s the back six and Michael Voss should get two important forward 50 inclusions for the trip to the Gabba against a Lions side that might be without its most important defensive piece in Jack Payne. A watch on Sam Docherty who was limited at training on Monday. Jack Silvagni another healthy scratch?
Ins: Jack Martin, Harry McKay
Outs: Matthew Kennedy, David Cuningham
COLLINGWOOD
Taylor Adams is a disappointing loss for the Pies but it’s cushioned by the return of Nick Daicos, who is locked and loaded to return from his knee injury. There was talk Tom Mitchell’s place in the side could be under threat but Adams’ hamstring injury could be his saving grace. What does John Noble have to do to get back in this side?
In: Nick Daicos
Out: Taylor Adams
GWS GIANTS
It sounds like Kieren Briggs will be good to go for Friday night, which is a massive tick for the Giants. Adam Kingsley hasn’t felt the need to tinker with his side when not required and given the impressive nature of the win over Port on Saturday, will likely be happy to go in unchanged against the Magpies.
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JORDAN McCARTHY
BRISBANE LIONS
Fresh from the week off, Brisbane should remain unchanged from the team that dismantled Port Adelaide in the qualifying final. There is a bit of an injury cloud over Jack Payne, but with twin towers McKay and Charlie Curnow coming up he will be given every chance to play.
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CARLTON
Sam Docherty ran out the semi-final after dislocating his shoulder and was an important part of Carlton’s game-winning chain of play. Odds are he will be fine for the prelim in Brisbane. Jack Martin will return from suspension and Harry McKay from concussion meaning heartbreak for Matt Kennedy and David Cuningham.
Ins: Jack Martin, Harry McKay
Outs: Matt Kennedy, David Cuningham
COLLINGWOOD
Taylor Adams tweaking his hamstring has taken care of one headache for Magpies coach Craig McCrae, with Nick Daicos coming back from injury to fill his spot in the midfield. Seeing the way the Giants smashed Port in that second-quarter blitz will have McCrae wary of their leg speed. Is there room for Cameron, Cox and McStay?
In: Nick Daicos, Jack Ginnivan
Out: Taylor Adams, Darcy Cameron
GWS GIANTS
Finn Callaghan was quiet but will hold his spot in an unchanged line-up that disposed of Port Adelaide in the semi-final on the weekend. The Giants are humming along nicely and could really trouble the Pies if they’re firing on all cylinders. All eyes will be on Kieran Briggs’ shoulder this week, but he should play.
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LACHLAN McKIRDY
BRISBANE LIONS
Jack Gunston could be the one player who comes into selection consideration for the preliminary final, but the Lions are likely to stick true to the group that got the job done in week one.
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CARLTON
The big question mark for Michael Voss is what to do about Harry McKay. While he had a disappointing game against Sydney in the elimination final, it’s clear that having him in the side gives them good structure and creates more space for Charlie Curnow. Jack Martin will definitely return from suspension in a massive boost, while Jack Silvagni could push to be included. David Cuningham was subbed out of the semi-final and could start in the role this week. Some tough calls ahead for Michael Voss.
Ins: Harry McKay, Jack Martin
Outs: Matt Kennedy, Ollie Hollands
COLLINGWOOD
Nick Daicos is a huge inclusion as he finally gets back on the field following his knee injury. He has been Collingwood’s best ball-winner for the year and they’ll need him at his best against GWS. Jack Ginnivan’s energy could be vital against a Giants side that likes to get a roll on, so there could be an eye to start him rather than making him the sub. Taylor Adams’ injury means it’s a straight swap for Daicos.
In: Nick Daicos
Out: Taylor Adams
GWS GIANTS
Despite a brutal encounter against Port Adelaide, the Giants appear to have gotten through the match unscathed and should name the same 23 to take on the Pies. It was a big call to choose Xavier O’Halloran as the sub over Nick Haynes, so that’s the only potential point of contention at the selection table.
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