Mick McGuane: Ultimate 2022 AFL Grand Final preview
The Swans have one of the best defensive forwards in the game in Ryan Clarke, but Mick McGuane’s suggested Geelong opponent for him is a big surprise.
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Geelong and Sydney deserve to be facing off at the MCG in the grand final, but what are the factors that will play into who wins the cup?
What are the keys? What can we expect and who will be the x-factors influencing each team?
Mick McGuane has the answers.
GEELONG
WHAT TO EXPECT
A physically and mentally prepared group of 22 players whose sole priority will be to assault the footy in the hardest possible way.
Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield have been ruthless in their desire to win contested possessions over their career and I’m expecting that to be no different this week as they set the standard for teammates to follow.
Gaining strong territory from stoppages will be a crucial aspect of this game, as will scoring from turnovers which has been a strong suit for the Cats.
Geelong will look to roll up their half forwards to cover their wingers, who will in turn push into defence and allow Tom Stewart or Tom De Koning to be freed up.
THE KEY
Play your way.
You don’t win 15 games in a row like Geelong have without believing in your game style. The Cats’ players accept and play their roles within their team structure with positive results.
The Cats must continue to back themselves in offence as they have averaged 105.4 points a game since Round 18. Defending strongly is a part of their DNA as they have only conceded an average of just 63.2 points against over the same period.
Those are remarkable numbers at the pointy end of the season.
Their turnover game is a vital part of their overall scoring profile and how they punish the Swans on turnover will determine the result.
Geelong ranks No. 1 for points for turnover since Round 18, but are coming up against a Sydney side that ranks No.2.
THE CHALLENGE
Absorb the heat.
The Swans are renowned for bringing great heat to every contest and have been particularly red-hot in that area in opening quarters.
Sydney will be looking at the Collingwood template from the qualifying final on how to upset the Cats.
In that game, the Magpies brought a sky-high pressure rating of 208 in the first quarter and consequently headed into the first change with a 14-point advantage over Geelong.
The Cats kicking efficiency in that game was their second-worst of the year at 61 per cent and they took just 49 uncontested marks which was their lowest number of the season.
Collingwood couldn’t sustain that pressure over four quarters, but Sydney has shown in recent weeks that it can – recall their last quarter against Melbourne.
THE CONCERN
Can the Cats control stoppages?
Coming up against a quality tap ruckman in Tom Hickey, there will be huge responsibility on Geelong ruck pairing Rhys Stanley and Mark Blicavs.
The duo must produce the games of their lives to try and take away Hickey’s influence.
Since Round 21, Hickey has gone to another level and is averaging 16.2 disposals, 8.4 hit-outs to advantage and 4.8 clearance.
Stanley must stand up and be super competitive because if Hickey is allowed to return those kind of numbers again the Swans will gain important territory and provide their forwards with ample opportunities to hit the scoreboard.
THE THEME
Win the contested ball but also the ground ball inside-50.
Tom Hawkins, Jeremy Cameron and Gary Rohan are terrific targets in attack.
However, Dane Rampe and the McCartin brothers are strong and aggressive spoilers in defence for Sydney.
Those spoils will provide opportunities for Geelong’s ground level players – including Tyson Stengle, Brad Close and Gryan Miers – to get to work.
Those smalls will have to ensure they get their running patterns right and are not all bees to a honey pot, given the Swans’ backmen can spoil with distance.
Manufacturing goals the hard way through ground ball wins will be important for the Cats.
X-FACTOR
Brad Close.
A running machine, the forward has an uncanny ability to find himself in space, which makes him a threat for the Sydney defenders.
He reads the play exceptionally well and has got the creative nous around goals to manufacture a snap out of nowhere or even get reward with a set shot.
Close could find himself manned by a taller opponent like Paddy McCartin at stages and needs to have the smarts to stay relevant.
If he does that, McCartin will have to engage with him rather than sag off as a loose defender.
If McCartin has to help a teammate spoil the footy, Close could find himself unmanned at ground level and in a dangerous position.
THE STAR
Jeremy Cameron.
The key forward has the ability to separate these two teams.
He has had almost 100 scoring shots this year for a return of 63.36, has taken 68 marks inside-50 and 26 contested marks.
Interestingly, Cameron has only been kept goalless twice this year, with one of those being against Sydney in Round 2 when he was held to three behinds.
But even when he is not hitting the scoreboard himself, Cameron can hurt you with his elite ball use, decision making and footy IQ.
IF I WERE THE CATS
Don’t make the same defensive match-up mistakes as Collingwood the week before.
Jack Henry has to start on Lance Franklin and his mobility and competitiveness can help quell the influence of ‘Buddy’.
Tom Stewart needs to go to Isaac Heeney when he’s playing forward, given Heeney booted five goals against Geelong in Round 2.
I’d be employing Tom Atkins to hunt Luke Parker, rather than allowing Parker to hunt Dangerfield or Selwood.
SYDNEY
WHAT TO EXPECT
A vibrant Swans outfit who will put a high priority on pressure and tackling.
Sydney’s attack will come on the back of a strong defensive mindset.
Inside the contest, Luke Parker, Callum Mills and James Rowbottom will lead the way, not only by winning crucial one-on-ones at stoppage but also by snapping into a ruthless defensive mindset against a powerful Geelong midfield.
The last time Lance Franklin played on the MCG, his colours were lowered.
However, you can expect a different Franklin this time around on the back of a confidence-building game last week against Collingwood where his competitiveness in the contest was the best I’ve seen for a long time.
THE KEY
Maintain the rage.
The Swans need to bring 120 minutes of intense pressure and supreme defensive effort.
They must tackle strongly and make them stick, because Geelong’s big-bodied midfielders regularly break through half-hearted tackles to burst out of contests and provide opportunities for their forwards.
Sydney’s mantra will be ‘no time, no space’ for the Geelong ball users, because you simply cannot allow the Cats ball winners to kick forward under little or no pressure.
Since Round 17, Sydney’s pressure rating has been an impressive 196.
For mine, Swans are the best two-way running team in the competition and they must show that again.
THE CHALLENGE
Divide and conquer Geelong’s backline.
You have to take away the Cats’ strength, which is their ability to free up star defender Tom Stewart to play loose.
Do you play a defensive forward on him?
Do you keep six forwards at home?
How Sydney sets up the ground in front of the ball will be important, particularly at stoppages between the arcs or in their own defensive 50
If the Swans do win the ball and go at speed from these congested situations, they don’t want to be kicking to an out number. When freed up, Stewart’s positioning is always in line with the ball so keeping 6 forwards at home against the Cats is a must.
In saying that Sydney’s forwards can’t all be on top of each other.
They must isolate to get as many one-on-one opportunities as they possibly can when they are going forward.
THE CONCERN
Clearances.
I think the Swans can match or better Geelong around stoppages, but if they don’t hold their own in the clearances they could be in for a tough day.
Geelong is a strong territory team and have got an incredibly strong forward half profile.
The Cats’ time in forward half differential this year is +7min 37sec – ranked No. 1 in the competition – and they generate scores from their forward half chains as well as anyone.
If the Sydney midfielders are beaten at stoppages, they must apply as much “immediate” pressure as possible.
Once Geelong locks the ball in at its attacking end, they are a hard team to rebound the ball against.
The Swans cannot rely on back-to-front ball movement to win this Grand Final so giving up territory from stoppages must be minimised.
THE THEME
Use the width and length of the ground – “Get chalk on your feet.” John Longmire must adopt this catch cry.
Once in possession of the ball, the Sydney players must work hard to make the MCG big with often unrewarded run to get to the wings or even back to their own attacking goal line.
If they can do that, their ball movement will shift and challenge Geelong’s rock-solid team defence.
It’s about gut running and being selfless to try and open up pockets of space through the corridor to allow the likes of Chad Warner and Callum Mills to be given the ball so they can enter their F50 at speed.
The Swans have used the corridor coming out of defensive 50 the fourth-most of any team this year.
X-FACTOR
Will Hayward.
I’m a big fan of Hayward, who has played all 24 games this year and has kicked 33 goals.
His willingness to run hard and fast in a role that is difficult to master provides him with great opportunities to hit the scoreboard.
I’m not sure if there is a specific Cats defender who can nullify his strengths.
In addition to his speed and endurance, Hayward can take a pack mark yet is catlike at ground level. He could be a point of difference with much of the attention going to Lance Franklin, Isaac Heeney and Tom Papley.
THE STAR
Luke Parker.
The midfielder is as courageous as they come and this is his stage to shine.
He loves to compete and is a physical warrior, but is also willing to selflessly give up his natural game for the betterment of the team.
We saw as much last week when he played on Jordan De Goey.
With no Josh Kennedy alongside him anymore, this is Parker’s midfield and he sets the standards around physical hardness and mental toughness for his younger teammates.
His ability to drift forward and kick a goal is also understated.
If he has a day out and the Swans win, Parker could have a Norm Smith Medal hanging around his neck at 5.30pm on Saturday.
IF I WERE THE SWANS
I would seriously consider putting time into Zach Guthrie and putting a defensive forward on him in Ryan Clarke to take away his contested possessions and intercept possessions.
Tom McCartin must go to Tom Hawkins and Dane Rampe to Jeremy Cameron in two key individual match-ups.
If Sam Reid is ruled out with injury, I’d be looking at Joel Amartey to come into the side even though he has played just six games this year.
Early in the game, Callum Mills goes to Patrick Dangerfield as a cooler to try and limit his influence after he burst out of the blocks last week.
TAB ODDS
Premiership
Geelong $1.47
Sydney $2.70
Norm Smith Medal
Patrick Dangerfield $8, Callum Mills $9, Luke Parker $10, Jeremy Cameron $10, Tom Stewart $14, Cameron Guthrie $15, Isaac Heeney $16, Tom Hawkins $16, Chad Warner $18
MICK’S TIP
Geelong by 15 points
ULTIMATE STATS GUIDE: WHERE GF WILL BE WON AND LOST
- Rebecca Williams
Who is running hot for Geelong and Sydney leading into the grand final?
What are the strengths and weaknesses for the Cats and Swans?
And who would you want taking the set shot to win the grand final if you were a Geelong or Sydney supporter?
We asked Champion Data to take a deep dive into Saturday’s grand final match-up to find who and what will be the keys to delivering a premiership for either side.
WHO’S HOT
The Cats played the long game with star midfielder Patrick Dangerfield this year and the strategy is paying dividends when it counts. Taking their time with his return mid-season from a calf injury, the Cats now have their prime mover hitting top gear for their flag mission against the Swans. Dangerfield boasts the highest player ranking of any Geelong player for the finals series so far. His 107-point ranking comes after a 28-disposal and two-goal performance in the preliminary final against the Brisbane Lions.
Ruckman Tom Hickey boasts the highest player ranking for the Swans in the finals, with an average ranking of 129 points. Chasing the holy grail at his fourth AFL club, Hickey had 27 hitouts and 15 disposals in the Swans’ preliminary final win over Collingwood and 24 hitouts and 24 disposals in the qualifying final against Melbourne.
CLEARANCE KINGS
Danger. That’s what will be lurking at the stoppages for the Swans.
Patrick Dangerfield has stamped himself as the clearance king for the Cats and he will be the man the Swans need to clamp down in the stoppage areas.
Dangerfield has averaged 5.7 clearances a game this season and had a team-high eight in the Cats’ preliminary final win over the Lions.
But as strong as the Brownlow medallist’s clearance work has been for the Cats, Sydney star Luke Parker has been equally damaging for the Swans.
Parker has averaged 6.1 clearances a match this season and was particularly damaging in the qualifying final against Melbourne with a team-high nine.
He is ranked just inside the top 10 in the competition for clearances at ninth.
SET SHOT SUPREMOS
If you had one player you would want lining up to take the set shot for goal to win the grand final, who would you want it to be?
For Geelong, that man is Gary Rohan. While most of the spotlight in the Cats’ forward falls on Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron, it is Rohan who has the best set-shot accuracy of any Cat this season, according to Champion Data’s analysis.
Based on a minimum of 10 set shots, Rohan has an accuracy of 69.2 percent when kicking for goal this season.
For Sydney, the most steady kick in front of goal this year has been young gun Errol Gulden. The 20-year-old has a set-shot accuracy of 75 per cent.
FIELD KICK KINGS
The set shot for goal is important but who can the Cats and Swans trust to regularly deliver the ball safely and cleanly by foot in the grand final?
Forward Jeremy Cameron has proven himself to be the surest and classiest kick for the Cats this year with a field kick rating of +10.1 per cent.
Based on a minimum of 100 field kicks, Cameron is ranked second in the competition this year with his kick rating.
Defender Robbie Fox has proven to be the sharpest kick for the Swans this year with a kick rating of 7.9 per cent – ninth in the competition.
Champion Data explained the kick rating as the difference between a player’s expected hit rate and their actual hit rate.
The rating is also based on the types of kicks under the same amount of pressure compared to the AFL average.
LIST DEMOGRAPHIC
There is no doubting the Cats’ level of experience entering this grand final.
Geelong has the oldest and most experienced team in the competition this year.
The Cats have an average age of 27.8 and a games average of 144.8.
With its fleet of young guns, the Swans have a games average of 104.4 and an average age of 25.4 – the eighth youngest in the competition.
The Swans have had one of the best runs with injury of all teams this season with 41 matches lost to their best 22 – the equal lowest in the competition alongside Brisbane and Melbourne.
Geelong had 94 matches lost to its best 22 – ranking it mid-table in the league.
TRUMP CARD STAT
Geelong has the best bookends in the competition. Weapons at either end of the ground, the Cats’ own the top ranking in the league for attack and defence this year.
An attacking triple threat of Tom Hawkins, Jeremy Cameron and Tyson Stengle has the Cats sitting at No. 1 in the competition with their points for (105.4) this season.
The Cats’ defence led by Tom Stewart and young gun Sam De Koning, also gave the Cats top ranking for points against (63.2) this season.
Sydney’s trump card leading into the finals has been the team’s pressure.
Since round 18, the Swans have held the No. 1 ranking in the competition for pressure applied (193).
WEAK LINK STAT
The Cats might have the bookend weapons, but they’ll need to lift their pressure game in the grand final to match that of the Swans
Geelong’s pressure numbers have been a weak link late in the season, according to Champion Data’s analysis.
Since round 18, the Cats’ have been ranked 15th in the competition for pressure applied (176), despite their unbeaten run extending to 15 straight wins.
Champion Data has identified Sydney’s centre clearances as its weak link heading into the premiership decider.
The Swans have been ranked 16th in the competition since round 18 for centre clearance differential (-2.8).
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