AFL 2021: Who is the best snap-shot goal kicker in the AFL?
Football innovator Steve Johnson pioneered the snap shot, and the stats show the experts are proving the traditionalists wrong. Find out the best in the business.
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They are the snap-shot statistics that prove progress is trampling the AFL’s oldest traditions.
And it is a trio of Richmond players who have mastered an art first introduced to the game by football innovator Steve Johnson.
Let’s call them the Stevie J Files.
They feature a long list of deadly forwards who have increasingly found a way to turn boundary-line snaps into elementary goals.
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Way back in 2013, Johnson fiercely defended Harry Taylor and Jimmy Bartel after their botched snaps led to a narrow loss to Adelaide.
“As long as it‘s been practised, I have no doubt the goal ratio will be higher if that’s what the player is most comfortable with,” said Johnson that week.
From 2013 onwards, Champion Data began recording data about snap shots and set shots for goal.
A breakdown of the figures show a mixed picture: the best exponents thrive using snap-shots instead of set shots but there is less success close-range from goal.
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Only from 30-40 metres from goal is there a dramatic increase in success rate for snaps compared to set shots.
Players who use snaps from that range kick 46.5 per cent of goals compared to only 39.5 per cent for set shots.
From 0-15 metres and 15-30 metres the statistics are similar for set shots and snaps.
But the AFL’s stars, who regularly practice the art, have returned spectacular results.
From 2013-2021 St Kilda’s Nick Riewoldt was the most accurate of any player using snap shots after taking a mark.
From his 34 snaps his expected result was a 62.1 per cent success rate and he kicked 76.5 per cent of his shots.
But it is the rate of return compared to expected accuracy - plotting the likelihood of a goal from all the shots taken since 2013 - that shows the true stars.
GWS forward Harry Himmelberg has the biggest spike - up 23.8 per cent from an expected accuracy rate of 51.2 per cent to his return of 75 per cent accuracy.
Richmond’s Josh Caddy (plus 23.6 per cent), and Charlie Cameron (plus 17 per cent) round out the top three.
Dustin Martin rounds out the top 10, up 11.9 per cent with snaps after marks on his expected accuracy.
Richmond’s Jack Riewoldt has kicked the most Stevie J-style snaps (81) in that period, followed by Tom Hawkins (79), Jeremy Cameron (63) and West Coast’s Josh Kennedy (60).
All of them are rewarded by increased returns compared to set shots, with Riewoldt up seven per cent, Hawkins three per cent, Cameron 12.9 per cent and Kennedy 10.6 per cent.
Carlton’s Harry McKay kicked many of his seven goals against Fremantle in Round 3 from snaps across his body.
One of them almost directly in front was dubbed as “ridiculous” by Fox Footy’s Jordan Lewis, who worried what he would do if he wasn’t able to use the snap on the siren.
But Blues coach David Teague said he was happy to give McKay his head as long as he had practised the shots and had a high degree of confidence.
“What he has got to have is purpose and I thought today when he was snapping them he had a purpose. In Round 1 he was rushing a couple. As long as he has got a purpose and is clear,” he said.
“I am not going to lie, I watched Tex Walker the other night (kicking drop punts) and I thought, “That is a beautiful kicking routine”.
“But if they are going through the goals I am pretty happy. He knows from each position what kind of kick he will do and as long as he has that purpose and conviction to it. I am fine.”
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