91 per cent finals win rate: Why it’s time for the Dogs to go all-out attack

Barring a miracle, the Dogs won’t finish 2025 as one of the AFL’s six best defences. History says you have to be in order to win the flag. Garry Lyon writes, it’s time for them to go the other way.

For the past 20 years, you must be in the top six for conceding scores in the competition if you want to win the premiership.

Those are the facts. It is one measurement, among a myriad, in this statistical age that you can elect to pay attention to, or not.

But you have to admit, it’s pretty compelling. It’s not saying you have to be the most frugal team in the game, it doesn’t necessarily break down how you are being scored against, although that is readily available, or where your greatest vulnerabilities lie.

It doesn’t take into account player availability, conditions, who your double up games are against or how many times you have to play interstate or during the night or day.

Luke Beveridge’s side is locked in a battle to make finals. Picture: Mark Stewart

It just says that if you are not among the hardest six teams in the competition to score against, you won’t have won the flag in the past 20 years.

The Western Bulldogs currently sit ninth. They will not, barring some sort of football miracle, be in the top six by the end of the season in five weeks time. So, if they harbour ambitions to add to their 2016 success, they are going to have to defy recent history.

And that’s okay too, records are there to be defied, and bucking the trend may very well appeal to Luke Beveridge’s sensibilities. I’m sure he would love to turn around at the end of the year and, should they be the last team standing, proudly declare they did it their way. They certainly did back in 2016 when they stormed the MCG on grand final day from outside the top four, when only the diehands gave them any chance at all.

Maybe it’s time for the Dogs to go the other way. Maybe it’s time to double down on their absolute strength, and try and blast their way into the top 8 and score their way to a shot at the title.

I’m not for a second suggesting they abandon their pursuit of a more miserly defence, that is to be expected and demanded. Rather, while you continue to attempt to get better defensively, don’t for one second play down or ignore what you are doing better than any other team in the game right now, and that is scoring.

The fact of the matter is, while there has been a stampede among us in the media to expose the shortcomings of the Dogs and their inability to win against their fellow contenders, there are other parts of their game that is in exceptional health. In the rush to highlight what they can’t do, what should not be lost is what they can do.

This 2025 Bulldogs outfit are the highest scoring team in the competition right now and they score more often than any other team once they go inside 50.

They are on track to score more points from clearance than any other team on record, at 49 points per game.

And they are able to move the ball from their defensive 50 to inside their attacking 50 better than anyone else this year and again, on track to be the second-best transition team of the past 10 years.

The Dogs have no issue scoring, it’s the other side that’s killing them. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

That, right there, is something to work with.

So far this year, 83 teams have scored 100 points or more. On only four occasions has that team lost.

In the last 10 years of finals football, 34 teams have scored over 100 points. Only three of those teams have lost.

The positive for the Dogs is that they have managed to top the ton 10 times this year, and only dropped the game against Geelong, despite kicking 16 goals and having 33 shots at GMHBA Stadium.

Being dubbed flat track bullies is something they have to live with, for the only team in the top 8 that they defeated while going past 100 points was the Giants back in Round 7. But what they can draw on is the fact that they still managed 98 points in the loss to Adelaide, 96 points in the loss to the Suns and 97 points when going down to the Lions in Round 5, during Gather Round.

This team has undeniable scoring power and now, more than ever before, they need to ram that advantage home.

And when you look at their personnel they can assemble forward of the ball, it would put a shiver down the spine of every other team in the competition.

Sam Darcy sits at the top of the pile. He has not ripped games to shreds in recent weeks and has been well matched by Harris Andrews, Mark Keane and Wil Dawson in recent weeks. But he has still played with enormous presence, kicking seven goals and taking 16 marks. His willingness to get up the ground and provide an outlet kick for his defenders is admirable, but it’s important that he recovers his position quickly and is testing defences within scoring range. Particularly on fast plays, and as we’ve pointed out, there is enough evidence to suggest that this Dogs group are able to get the ball from one end to the other better than nearly anyone in the last 10 years. That should be enough evidence to ensure that, should Darcy not stray too far, he will get so many one-on-ones that he will be almost unstoppable. Set the ground up for him to go as big as he can in the next five weeks. Ram home the magnificent advantage you have at your disposal.

Naughton has shown signs of his best football in the past month. He’s kicked 15 goals in the last four games. Harness the confidence and let him loose. If it’s not Darcy one out, then make sure it’s Naughton. Give them the licence to be the best attacking duo in the game. Let them challenge each other. There has been such a reliance on forwards adhering to the strictest defensive disciplines in recent times, it might be both liberating and dangerous to cut the shackles and see just how far you can extend your offensive advantage.

They are complemented by Rhylee West, who has demonstrated an innate understanding of his role in among these power forwards.

Aaron Naughton is back to his best. Picture: Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Let him be ‘hungry’, without totally abandoning team structures. But he should want to be hitting the scoreboard, sniffing out every single opportunity that comes his way.

Stretch the opposition midfields by allowing the likes of Ed Richards and Joel Freijah to charge forward at the right times, free in the knowledge that they’ll have their backs covered should things not work out. Richards has great goal sense and has kicked multiple goals on four occasions this year.

Freijah’s round 17 game against the Swans is front of mind when pondering just what this 19 year old is capable of. He kicked four goals that game, on the way to amassing 23 possessions. He looks like he’s 25 years old. He’s 19! Ollie Dempsey won the Rising Star last year at 21 years of age. Freijah could be anything.

And then there’s the recently anointed second-greatest Bulldog of all time, Marcus Bontempelli. I know moving him from the midfield for any length of time is flirting with one of footballs great sights, but I would be lobbing him into this forward set up as often as is strategically possible, and let him put the fear of God into opposition defensive set ups as they try to counter one of the greatest players of the modern era.

Yes, it’s asking a lot of the Bont, but he truly is a superhero, and if anyone was going to help elevate this team beyond their defensive woes, by blasting teams off the park completely, then the No.4 has to be right in the middle of it.

At 194cm, he is an absolute nightmare match up in the forward 50. He is powerful in the air and a genius below his knees. He’s a natural goal kicker and a magical assist player. He is never beaten and has the football smarts to work in concert with Darcy, as opposed to getting in his way. The sheer competitiveness of Darcy and Bontempelli in the forward 50 is enough to give any defender nightmares.

Of all the players that have spent more than 250 minutes forward this year, no player has performed above expectation more than Bontempelli. To further underscore how potent this group is ahead of the footy, Darcy sits third in that same measurement, Matthew Kennedy is sixth and West is in the top 50. Naughton and Sanders are just outside.

I know it may be wishful thinking that the Bulldogs turn to an all out assault in an attempt to keep their premiership hopes alive. There will be naysayers that point to the fact that under extreme pressure the Dogs have turned the footy over too much against quality opposition to put even more of your chips into the front half. They will tell you that the game changes as we enter September and that it morphs into a ground ball game, where the big boys struggle to impact. But sometimes you’ve just got to take a risk and play to your strengths.

Rhylee West kicks a goal

But what’s the alternative for the Dogs? They don’t have the personnel to change their back half structure, and while Liam Jones will be better for the run after returning last week, he is not the player he once was. Beveridge and his group will not give up on making them harder to score against, but there is only so much they can do in the next five weeks.

What they can do is load up and go big. It will never get to the Malcolm Blight stage, where he famously was said to have an attitude in his high scoring days at Geelong of, ‘I’m not fussed about how many points the opposition score, we’ll just score more’.

But how good would it be they did? Don’t die wondering and just be another victim of the prevailing statistic that prioritises defence over attack.

Or an unashamed, all-out, attack-based push to September.

I’d like to see that.

Originally published as 91 per cent finals win rate: Why it’s time for the Dogs to go all-out attack