AFL 2021: A deep dive into the Richmond dynasty and what comes next for Tigers
Jonathon Brown’s Brisbane Lions used to steamroll teams — and then the didn’t. The same thing is happening at Richmond. Here’s why
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It’s the blank look on the faces of the battle-hardened warriors that signals the end of a dynasty.
Jonathan Brown remembers seeing it sometime in 2005 when his all-conquering Brisbane Lions side reached the tipping point of a golden three-flag run.
“I was young, but I saw it on our veterans, and essentially what that is losing hope,” Brown says.
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“There’s just no petrol left, but that’s not having a go at veterans, that’s just the reality of what happens, because those blokes have gone to the well so many times and it finally takes its toll.”
A series of the same unstoppable forces are slowly strangling Richmond in its pursuit of an incredible fourth premiership in five years, Brown says.
“The problem is, when you have those long campaigns going deep into September, the injuries are eventually going to start stacking up and the bodies are going to start failing you,” he says.
“Now you can argue that some are contact injuries, but I put them all in the one category — they’re injuries, whether they are contact or non-contact or whatever.
“They’re injuries that just build up with wear and tear because you’ve got so many miles on the clock.
“That’s one element that has hurt Richmond this year and gradually they have lost confidence in their game — that’s clear for all to see.
“The other one, and if you say this to (Damien) Hardwick he’ll say it’s bullsh*t, is that they’ve lost their aura and intimidation factor, and that is a real thing.
“I’ve lived it at Brisbane when we used to steamroll teams, and then you don’t.”
The alarm bell moment
The first signs of a decline at Tigerland were there in Round 3 when the “young bloods” Sydney Swans ran the Tigers off their feet under a searing sun at the MCG, but Brown identifies the loss to West Coast at Perth Stadium a month ago — when Hardwick’s men coughed up a 22-point lead late in the final quarter — as the true alarm bell moment.
“They were really worrying signs for me because normally they just ice that game, every day of the week,” Brown says.
“They are losing to all the other contenders, apart from the Bulldogs in the second-half that night, and the nail in the coffin for me was losing to a young side (the Gold Coast Suns last week), who have got no confidence, who would normally be intimidated by Richmond, and when they (the Tigers) loomed up normally teams just collapse, but the Gold Coast got headed and then they went back in front.
“To me that shows that they’ve lost their aura.”
The prognosis from inside the Richmond camp, not unexpectedly, is far more optimistic.
Asked on AFL360 on Tuesday night if he believed the Tigers could still win the premiership, champion full forward Jack Riewoldt didn’t hesitate: “I believe that we can beat anyone, yeah.
“It’s called belief. I believe that we are still a bloody good football side.
“Yes we’ve got a few injuries, yes we’ve got some young players playing but it brings opportunity and we look forward to the challenge against the arch rival (Collingwood) on Sunday.”
But the raw data tells the story of the Richmond downturn. Not a single player at the Tigers has registered a better season statistically than last year.
Defender Nathan Broad has matched his 2020 output, but every other player has dropped according to Champion Data ranking points.
The Tigers’ ferocious team defence has slipped to 16th for points-against-from-stoppages, 16th for opposition-scores-per-inside 50 and 15th for total-points-against.
An inevitable salary cap squeeze has seen off some seasoned depth players such as Brandon Ellis, Dan Butler and Jack Higgins, while mounting injuries have meant that fringe players have been asked to step up into roles that have proved too hard.
“It’s a combination of three different things, the tipping point with injuries – and key players, (Dion) Prestia and (Kane) Lambert are the two really big ones, they’ve hardly played all year … star players are out of form, and I think when that happens some of those role players around the edges, there is more pressure (going) on to them to perform and they’re actually just not probably quite up to it,” Tigers legend Matthew Richardson told 3AW on Sunday.
“So you add all of that together and they’re an eighth to 10th placed team at the moment.”
What could be next
Richmond’s nucleus of A graders aren’t getting any younger either.
Dustin Martin, Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin, Shane Edwards, Bachar Houli and David Astbury are all on the wrong side of 30.
But while the outside world consigns the Richmond dynasty to history, Tigers chief executive Brendon Gale says it’s business as usual at Punt Rd.
“I’m approaching the next few weeks with great excitement and anticipation to see how we respond collectively and continue to get good looks at some of our younger players,” Gale told the Herald Sun.
“We are a growth football club, we look at all opportunities for learning. Even this current challenge is one we look forward to going through.
“It (the dynasty debate) invites commentary, but it’s an infinite game. It’s a continuum and you are always searching for your next win, your next final and your next premiership.
“We look for improvement in every moment and if we do that the results will take care of themselves.
“We’re not playing well, and there’s a number of reasons behind that, but the silver lining is that we’ve had the opportunity to play a lot of the younger players, we’re getting good looks at them and we’ll keep backing them, but it’s an attention that never ends, no matter where you are on the ladder.
“We’re a proud group, a strong and united group and we’ll just keep on working. We’ll approach this challenge as a collective as we always have, and we can’t look too far ahead.”
But if it is to be the end of an era, some shrewd list management through the premiership years means there’s some top-end talent on the way.
Based on current ladder positions the Tigers would enter this year’s national draft holding picks 10, 14, 26, 28, 41 and 46.
The club’s last top 10 selection was star defender Nick Vlastuin (pick 9) in 2013.
“Contending whilst regenerating has been a consideration for the way we have gone for the last couple of trade periods,” Gale says.
Claims the playing group has been distracted by happenings off the field such as Hardwick’s marriage split or extended stints on the road, placing pressure on families at home, have been flatly dismissed.
Riewoldt bristled at suggestions this week his coach’s personal issues had affected the Tigers.
“I’ve told you now – it’s got absolutely zero to do with our performance at all,” Riewoldt said.
Gale said it was a “non-issue”.
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Better placed than Lions of ‘05
Once pitied, Richmond is again hated, just the way Graeme Richmond, the fierce Tigers powerbroker of the 1960s and ’70s, would have wanted it.
“It’s interesting. It certainly does seem like that externally but that’s OK and it probably does remind us that we are doing some things right, but at the end of the day we are an experienced group, we have been together a long time, we’ve got some really capable people at all levels of our club and we’re not so much defined by what people think, it’s our commitment to each other that really matters,” Gale says.
The veteran CEO, seen by many as the obvious successor to AFL boss Gillon McLachlan, says he has “every confidence” Richmond has built the foundations to “stay up” for a long time like Geelong.
“If you look at our list profile, our talent, our age profile – absolutely,” Gale says.
“I’ve got a great respect for Geelong who just give themselves an opportunity year after year after year.
“We are looking at the next couple of months of footy, no doubt, but we are also looking at the next two, four, six years. We want to be competitive on a sustained basis and that doesn’t mean you win every year, it just means that you give yourself a chance.”
Brown believes the Tigers are in better shape from a list perspective than his Lions were to reset and make a run for the 2022 premiership, but says it’s “highly unlikely” to happen.
“You’d have to say they have been managed as well as you could possibly have done with a dynasty team, but Dusty is 30 and players don’t get better from 30 onwards,” Brown says.
“Cotchin is breaking down and the veterans are getting injuries. Unless they can have a massive upswing from their young recruits, to me that is the only way that they can really bounce.
“They are a dynasty team. They are in the same conversation as Brisbane, Geelong and Hawthorn, absolutely, but they’ve been at the top of the tree for four years and all good things come to an end.”
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