Australian sides making run at history as Super Rugby season passes halfway mark

CAN three Australian sides make the Super Rugby playoffs? As we pass the season’s halfway mark, Iain Payten analyses the run home.

Waratahs flyhalf Bernard Foley tries to get in the clear.

A LITTLE like a 400 metres sprint at the Olympics, it can be tough to figure out who’s leading Super Rugby at the halfway mark.

Generally speaking, the leading runners in the 400m only become clear as they round the last bend and the staggered lane system evens out.

Super Rugby is not a million miles away from the one-lap classic. Where European comps are endurances events, Super Rugby is one long, lung-torching sprint and the curves of a three-country competition can cloud the picture of leading contenders deep into the regular season.

Tactically different blocks of opponents, jet-lag-soaked tours and the comforting tailwinds of home games come at different times for all, leaving it hard to tell who will rise and fall on the run home. The impacts of the June Tests also remain unknown until sides are picked and injuries are handed out by the gods.

News_Image_File: Nick Phipps and the Waratahs are involved in a race to the Super Rugby playoffs.

So as we pass the halfway point of Super Rugby 2014, the picture appears to be slowly focusing but much could still change.

The Sharks, for example, are out in front but have played all-but one of their first eight games at home. They lost one away and now have a path to the finals largely on the road.

Dangerous Kiwi sides the Chiefs and the Crusaders are hanging grimly in the finals race, have already completed their South African tour and face a happier groove of Aussie teams and local derby games in the back-half.

The Hurricanes, too, are now on a run with most of their travel behind them and can beat anyone on their day. The Canes’ last four games are all against Kiwi teams, however, meaning puzzle pieces in the Kiwi conference will shift right until the end.

News_Image_File: TJ Perenara and the Hurricanes are flying after hitting a run of form.

What of the Australian conference? Australian sides occupy three spots in the top six at the 200-metre mark but is it folly to think all three could make the finals?

The Force sit in fifth overall and have shown impressive form this year, but signs of fatigue were clear in their loss to the Rebels and things don’t get easier.

Their Africanised style will go head-to-head with kin over the next month as the Force meet the Bulls in Perth, and then the Cheetahs and Stormers across the Indian Ocean, before returning to play the Lions at nib Stadium.

Hopes of a first finals spot could rest on picking up three of those four games, but encouragingly for their fans, the Force actually have a decent record in South Africa.

News_Image_File: Matt Toomua’s Brumbies are on top of the Australian conference.

The Brumbies remain well-positioned in top spot on the Aussie ladder after picking up six wins in a tiring 8-game sequence.

There are no easy runs home but the Canberra men have a run of top-class foes around the corner; playing the Chiefs, Crusaders and Sharks in the next month and a South African tour still to endure as well.

Keeping their stars on the park will be important.

The Reds and the Rebels will take solace in their apparent proximity to the top six but realistically both are on a knife-edge, and can only afford to drop one more game or they are toast. Both sides certainly have the ability to win more games but it is hard to see such dominance in the back half when inconsistency plagued the opening one.

News_Rich_Media: Melbourne Rebels snapped Western Force's winning streak and gained revenge over their Aussie counterparts with a 22-16 win at AAMI Park.

And what of the Waratahs? Could this be their first finals since 2011?

Coaches like to keep destiny in their own hands, and NSW have held on to that.

With Israel Folau fit and fresh, a backline settling its combinations and a forward pack trending upwards in physicality and set-piece work, signs point towards finals being a very achievable goal. Staying healthy will be crucial.

But there’s finals and there’s finals, and the Tahs’ top-two ambition is the important marker to focus on. You have to be in the top pair of teams to get a home playoff, and if you don’t, history says you will be finals fodder.

The Brumbies needed 10 wins, two draws and eight bonus points to get top spot in the Australian conference last year and NSW will require another five to six wins from their remaining eight games to be in that territory.

News_Image_File: Waratahs players celebrate Israel Folau’s try against the Bulls.

The loss to the Force left them with “no buffer”, according to coach Michael Cheika, so there is precious little room for another slip-up.

Tough road trips against the Blues and Chiefs await, though helpfully they meet the back-to-back champs in an afternoon game in New Plymouth. NSW meet the Hurricanes, Highlanders and Lions on friendlier home turf, however, and points from those three and an away trip to the Rebels would be eyed off.

That leaves a couple of other wins to be snaffled between the New Zealand visits and two vital local derbies after the June Test break.

The Brumbies travel to Sydney in late June and with positions usually up grabs in the last round, the last game could well determine the final picture of the 400m race.

Waratahs v Reds, in Queensland, on July 12. Three days after a potential State of Origin decider at the same venue. You can smell the hate from here.

RUNS HOME

BRUMBIES (25)

v Chiefs (h)

v Crusaders (a)

v Sharks (h)

v Cheetahs (a)

v Bulls (a)

v Rebels (h)

v Waratahs (a)

Bye

v Force (h)

WARATAHS (24)

v Blues (a)

v Hurricanes (h)

Bye

v Lions (h)

v Rebels (a)

v Chiefs (a)

v Brumbies (h)

v Highlanders (h)

v Reds (a)

FORCE (23)

v Bulls (h)

Bye

v Cheetahs (a)

v Stormers (a)

v Lions (h)

v Crusaders (a)

v Blues (h)

v Reds (h)

v Brumbies (a)

REDS (16)

v Hurricanes (a)

v Blues (a)

v Crusaders (h)

v Rebels (h)

Bye

v Highlanders (h)

v Rebels (a)

v Force (a)

v Waratahs (h)

REBELS (16)

Bye

Sharks (h)

Hurricanes (h)

Reds (a)

Waratahs (h)

Brumbies (a)

Reds (h)

Lions (a)

Bulls (a)