Melbourne Suburban Rail Loop: How new station precincts will help house booming population
Suburban Rail Loop precincts are forecast to provide housing for an extra 100,000 people in the city’s north and east — but Melbourne will still struggle to service its booming population.
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Suburban Rail Loop precincts are forecast to provide housing for an extra 100,000 people in the city’s north and east — but Melbourne will still struggle to service its booming population.
The mega project is set to transform the city into a polycentric powerhouse of jobs, services and housing hubs by 2056, when the population is expected to be about 9 million.
But Infrastructure Victoria’s ‘Our Home Choices’ report states “precinct development alone will not be enough to deliver the homes in established suburbs that Melbourne’s growing population needs”, and an emeritus professor has questioned the SRL’s modelling.
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SRL EAST PRECINCT POPULATION PLANS
Heidelberg and Box Hill SRL precincts will have their populations boosted the most under the project, with an extra 24,000 and 15,500 residents forecast respectively by 2056.
RMIT planning professor Michael Buxton said the government’s modelling showed “only minor increases” compared to the “business as usual scenario” — if it did not exist — and greater detail was needed for the project, which will also include SRL West.
“If this is a city transformation project, as the government says it is, you’re not going to transform a city with only figures in those precincts of that amount,” he said.
“That’s minor change. It’s hardly more than the business as usual change, so why would you spend at least $100bn to gain such small returns in terms of increased population? You wouldn’t. It’s not believable. No government is going to do that.”
Prof Buxton said he had “no doubt” the government had “a number in mind” as an overall population target for the entire project’s combined precincts, and said it needed to be clear about how much of new population growth the SRL would cater for.
SRL East will create housing for an extra 49,500 people when complete, according to the state government, while SRL North will drive another 48,000 to live in its precincts than otherwise would have.
About 47,500 new households will be included in the 12 SRL East and North precincts, including more social and affordable housing. SRL West modelling has not been done yet.
Booming Box Hill’s SRL precinct will have the biggest boost along the eastern section of the rail project, which will be delivered first, with the area’s population to be boosted by 15,500, while Cheltenham would be home to 9000 more, Clayton, 8500, Monash, 4000, Glen Waverley, 8500, and the future Burwood station precinct, 4000.
Along SRL North, the new Heidelberg SRL precinct will have an extra 24,000 than the “business as usual”, Doncaster’s SRL precinct will be boosted 5500, Bundoora, 4500, Reservoir, 6500, Fawkner, 6500, and Broadmeadows, 1000.
Suburban Rail Loop Minister Jacinta Allan said the project would support Melbourne’s growing population “with more affordable housing choices, jobs and services close to home”.
“Suburban Rail Loop will make sure Melbourne remains one of the world’s most liveable cities as our population grows,” she said.
The state’s Plan Melbourne vision, which covers the city until 2051, is for 70 per cent of new housing to be in established suburbs, as opposed to greenfield development, with access to public transport, jobs and services, in-line with the 20-minute neighbourhood idea.
Infrastructure Victoria’s report states that 70 per cent would “equate to 932,000 new homes in Melbourne’s existing suburbs” but the city was “falling short”.
Prof Buxton said 70 per cent would represent about 2.3 million people in established Melbourne suburbs out of about 3 million more residents by the 2050s.
“I believe the SRL is one of the key ways the government has identified … to do it, so I want them to tell us what the numbers are they have in mind,” he said.
“Of that 2.3 million more people, how many do they want to fit into these precincts as a way of meeting their population targets?”
He said it could not be known how many people would fit into the precincts around the stations until their zoning was confirmed.
Planning for the six SRL East precincts, which will be delivered first and operating by 2035, still remains in its early stages.
The Suburban Rail Loop Authority will consult broadly with local residents and traders as well as local governments, other key stakeholders and relevant government departments and agencies as it developments structure plans for each precinct.
SRL North’s delivery is expected in the 2050s.
SRL West is considered a very different part of the SRL network, as there is already an existing rail corridor, so it will have a separate business case and approach to planning, environmental approvals, design and construction.
PROJECTED POPULATION INCREASES
Precinct, Population 2021, Population 2056 (w. SRL), Population 2056 (no SRL), Jobs 2021, Jobs 2056 (w. SRL), Jobs 2056 (no SRL)
SRL EAST
Cheltenham, 22,000, 52,500, 43,500, 18,000, 36,500, 25,000
Clayton, 23,000, 55,000, 46,500, 21,500, 57,500, 46,500
Monash, 13,500, 30,500, 26,500, 40,500, 162,000, 75,000
Glen Waverley, 22,500, 46,500, 38,000, 12,500, 25,000, 18,500
Burwood, 22,500, 44,500, 40,500, 12,500, 24,000, 19,000
Box Hill, 29,500, 77,500, 62,000, 26,500, 48,500, 41,500
Total, 133,000, 306,500, 257,000, 131,500, 353,500, 225,500
Difference in population with and without: 49,500
SRL NORTH
Doncaster, 24,000, 49,000, 43,500, 13,000, 24,500, 20,500
Heidelberg, 21,000, 59,000, 35,000, 20,500, 50,000, 42,000
Bundoora, 13,000, 37,000, 32,500, 10,000, 41,500, 25,000
Reservoir, 27,500, 52,000, 45,500, 5000, 9000, 7500
Fawkner, 17,500 35,500, 29,000, 5000, 11,500, 10,500
Broadmeadows, 15,000, 33,000, 32,000, 12,500, 26,000, 19,500
Melbourne Airport, 0, 0, 0, 13,500, 29,000, 29, 500
Total, 118,000, 265,500, 217,500, 79,500, 191,500, 154,500
Difference in population with and without: 48,000
SRL WEST
Modelling not done yet
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