Hotspotting: Pakenham, Officer among ‘star growth’ markets for future house price growth

The Melbourne suburbs where prices are forecast to rise or fall based on sales activity have been revealed. Search every suburb.

Pakenham and Officer have been tipped for mega future house price growth. No. 5 Harold St, Officer, transacted recently for $492,500.

Two postcodes on Melbourne’s southeastern fringe have been named among Australia’s best prospects for a future real estate boom.

Pakenham and Officer are among the nation’s top five housing markets on the brink of mega price gains, according to Hotspotting’s latest Price Predictor Index.

Queensland’s Gold Coast and Ipswich, South Australia’s Victor Harbor region and Western Australia’s City of Rockingham rounded out the “star growth markets”.

RELATED: Hotspotting: Almost 75 per cent of Melbourne property markets rising

Armstrong Creek, Venus Bay among Hotspotting ‘supercharged’ markets

Where Victorian house values have grown the most in the past decade

No. 15 River Red Grove, Pakenham, changed hands for $745,000.

But the apartment-dominated Docklands, Melbourne CBD, Southbank and West Melbourne were flagged as “danger markets”, due to weak sales activity, high vacancy rates and falling prices.

Hotspotting’s report, by company founder Terry Ryder, aims to predict which locales are next in line for huge price rises and markets buyers should be wary of.

The method is based on sales volumes being a better way to chart market growth than median prices, because those rises follow a sustained increase in sales.

Pakenham and Officer notched big jumps in sales over the past four quarters, which translated to an 11 per cent median annual price rise in those areas.

Quarterly transactions in Officer almost tripled from 50 to 190, while Pakenham’s shot up from 138 to 440.

Officer’s median house price is now $620,000 and Pakenham’s, $550,000, according to the report.

No. 15 Deveney St, Pakenham, sold for $530,000 earlier this month.

Mr Ryder said savvy buyers who bought in a rising market before prices shot up stood to make large gains on their property’s value.

Hume and Whittlesea were flagged as municipalities to watch.

They had 20 suburban “rising markets” between them, with Craigieburn and Mernda showing some of the biggest upticks in sales.

“History shows there is a correlation between sales volumes and price movements. The number of sales changes first and prices react with a time lag,” Mr Ryder said.

No. 10 Bellerive Ave, Officer, recently sold for $670,000.

“Because of the time lag … buyers who learn about a rise in the number of sales can buy strategically to achieve price growth in the near future.”

Barry Plant Berwick director Matt Ketteringham said first-time buyers in particular flocked to Pakenham and Officer in search of more affordable homes.

But he said demand was fast putting pressure on stock, and prices were already starting to rise.

“We’ve got such short supply and such high demand we find when we come out of these lockdowns, it (prices) increases 15 per cent.”

Bayside, Maribyrnong and the popular Mornington Peninsula appeared to “have passed their peaks”, according to the report.

No. 4 Wagonwheel St, Mernda, sold this month for $655,000.

Sale volumes had plateaued in those locales.

“Mornington Peninsula has been a market leader for some time and continues to deliver spectacular price outcomes, but the sales volume data suggests that this market has started to taper off, with only six of the 16 suburbs still rising,” Mr Ryder said.

But he said Melbourne’s overall outlook was positive.

And Colac, Geelong West, Macleod, Mt Evelyn, Oakleigh, Parkdale and Stawell were classed as “consistency markets”.

These had consistent quarterly sale volumes, which boded well for future price rises over time and made them “safe” markets for investors.

No. 19 McAdam Crescent, Colac, sold last month for $355,000.

“Melbourne entered its current lockdown with the strongest market we’ve recorded in our six years of quarterly surveys, and many of the strong locations are the affordable outer ring areas,” Mr Ryder said.

“But the overwhelming conclusion of this analysis is that the Melbourne market has extraordinary underlying strength, with more positive data than any other capital city or regional jurisdiction.”

Across Victoria, 67 regional locations were judged to have rising markets, down from 88 in the previous report.

Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat suburbs lead the sale volume growth charts for regional Victoria.

The City of Geelong had 13 suburbs with rising sales numbers, Bendigo had eight and Ballarat had nine.

Sign up to the Herald Sun Weekly Real Estate Update. Click here to get the latest Victorian property market news delivered direct to your inbox.

MORE: Windsor Post Office conversion delivers ‘bohemian’ flair to market

Construction shutdown: Almost $1bn in renos and home builds on hold in Victoria

Property industry concerned by unclear path out of Victorian lockdown

FAMILY HAVEN

Evonne and Daniel Calyk with their children Georgia (4), Micah (2), and Nate (4 months), outside their home, which is on the market in Officer. Picture: Rebecca Michael

When Evonne and Daniel Calyk moved into a new housing estate in Officer four years ago, not many of their friends knew where it was.

But Mrs Calyk said things had quickly changed, and young families in particular were now flocking to the area due to its more affordable prices and great community vibe.

Their four-bedroom 22 Grant Pde home is listed for $770,00-$847,000.

“There was a lot of young families and we knew everything around us was going to be new,” Mrs Calyk said.

“It’s just after Beaconsfield and Berwick and it’s not as expensive and not as developed.”

Before Covid, Mrs Calyk said the estate hosted children’s events in the park.

Santa would visit the park in the lead up to Christmas, there would be food trucks and a petting zoo. And in Halloween parents take their kids trick or treating.

“Homes are filling up really quickly and everyone wants to be here,” she said.

GREEN: Best markets for future growth

“Star growth” markets: Pakenham, Officer

“Super-charged” markets: Altona, Bayswater, Belmont (Geelong), Bulleen, Cheltenham, Cowes, Craigieburn, Darley, Doveton, Glenroy, Hampton Park, Hoppers Crossing, Lakes Entrance, Mernda, Mooroolbark, Point Cook, Preston, Reservoir, Roxburgh Park, Shepparton, South Morang, Truganina, Wodonga

“National growth stars” (municipalities): Hume, Whittlesea

ORANGE: The most consistent markets

Colac (houses), Geelong West (houses), Macleod (houses and units), Mt Evelyn (houses), Oakleigh (houses and units), Parkdale (houses and units), Stawell (houses)

RED: Danger markets

Docklands, Melbourne CBD, Southbank, West Melbourne

Source: Hotspotting’s Price Predictor Index, spring 2021 edition