US election: What happens next for Donald Trump and Joe Biden, and who takes the White House?
The race for the White House isn’t over yet, with Donald Trump demanding a recount and Joe Biden saying he’s optimistic. Here’s where things stand.
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The US election result remains on a knife’s edge.
While Donald Trump falsely claimed victory late on Tuesday night (local time), the way things sit right now, the tide has most certainly turned towards Joe Biden and the Democrats with a seemingly clear path to the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the presidency. So what’s going to happen next and how messy will it get?
Q: SO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
A: We did not have a result on Tuesday night, and the official result may not be known until as late as Friday (perhaps later if there are the expected legal challenges).
Basically, we count the votes. It’s as simple as that. And although Donald Trump may rage against the process and want the count to stop, that’s democracy. What’s slowing things up, is the sheer number of votes that still need to be counted.
The difference between this election and 2016 is the staggering number of early voting and postal voting. At least 100 million Americans voted before election day. Counting of early and postal votes, which in some states such as battlegrounds Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada doesn’t start until the polls close, will take days. It’s a waiting game.
Q: IS A RECOUNT POSSIBLE?
A: Yes, the Trump or Biden campaigns – what is termed the “aggrieved” party – have every right to request a recount. They are entitled to it, but it will not always be granted. As of Wednesday (local time), the Trump campaign has requested a recount into the battleground state of Wisconsin which was narrowly projected as a Biden win. But, according to political experts in the US, recounts don’t generally change the result.
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Q: CAN THE RESULT BE CONTESTED IN COURT?
A: You need only to look at the 2000 election result between George W. Bush and Al Gore. The Bush/Gore election came down to a recount of 537 votes after 37 days of legal fighting that ultimately reached the Supreme Court. With results in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin close, we could be headed back to court.
HOW CAN YOU WIN THE POPULAR VOTE BUT LOSE THE ELECTION?
You only need to look back only four years to Hillary Clinton who won the popular vote by more than three million votes but ultimately lost the election to Donald Trump.
In fact, just five times in US history, candidates have lost the popular vote but won the presidency (George W. Bush was another in 2000). Could Donald Trump be the first to do it twice?
This is where the United States Electoral College comes in. It’s been in place since the US Constitution was first drawn up in 1787 and it’s supposed to protect against a lot of perceived problems that would come from a straight-up popular vote.
What happens is each state is given a share of the 538 electoral votes based off its population, with totals ranging from California’s 55 to a number of states with only three.
This is supposed to level the playing field against highly-populous states such as California and more sparsely populated states like Wyoming and North Dakota. It is supposed to give states, despite population size, and equal say in shaping the presidency.
But there is a growing sentiment that the system is outdated and irrelevant.
DOES AMERICA HAVE AN ELECTORAL COMMISSION?
Not in the impartial way that Australia has the Electoral Commission. Similar resources are via government websites; there is vote.gov where Americans can register to vote. Elsewhere, there is another government website usa.gov where Americans can find answers about every type of voting question. Americans can register to vote here, change their registration details, or find out about elections.
WHAT’S THE COURT’S ROLE?
The court can shape an election result. Twenty years ago, the US Supreme Court stepped in to halt a recount in the disputed 2000 Bush v Gore presidential election.
George Bush won the key state of Florida with 48.8 per cent of the vote, by a margin of just 1784 votes. Given the margin was less than .05 per cent, an automatic recount happened. This recount decreased Mr Bush’s lead by a further 327 votes.
Al Gore then took the case to Florida’s Supreme Court, asking for a total statewide manual recount.
The Florida Supreme Court agreed with Mr Gore. But after an emergency request by Mr Bush, the US Supreme Court stayed the recount.
The court ultimately overturned the Florida Supreme Court’s decision for a selective manual recount of that state’s US presidential election ballots.
The 5–4 decision effectively awarded Florida’s 25 votes in the electoral college – and ultimately the election itself – to Republican candidate George W. Bush.
It has long been a contentious decision, and many Americans still feel the election was “stolen” from Mr Gore.
If Donald Trump does challenge any of the results, the US Supreme Court, with the addition of Mr Trump’s court pick, Amy Coney Barrett, is skewered conservative by 6-3, but they have to follow the letter of the law, of course.
– with additional reporting by Sarah Blake