US election 2020: Impact of Joe Biden’s policies on Australia, China and the rest of the world
Joe Biden’s victory will have huge implications not only for America but the rest of the world – including Australia. He will also struggle with China.
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The United States under Joe Biden will move swiftly to re-engage with the Asia Pacific region, supporting institutions like ASEAN and APEC that Australia sees as a backbone to regional harmony and security.
While the Democratic presidential elect’s foreign policy was not made clear during his campaign, his direction was made in his flagging how badly Donald Trump performed in his space during his term.
Notably, Biden made much of Trump’s continued snubbing of meeting Asia Pacific leaders at these cornerstone trading blocs and the broad view America was no longer a reliable regional strategic partner.
American-born analyst and commentator UNSW Canberra Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer said a Biden administration would seek a “consult and consensus” approach to foreign policy that Australia and the Asian region would be more comfortable with.
The unpredictable Trump pivots would be removed.
“Biden will back ASEAN, at least showing up and contributing, his expertise, intelligence and diplomatic side in a way takes away that unpredictability, will remove that ‘oh my God what’s going to happen next when I walk into the Oval Office to meet the president’,” Prof Thayer said.
“I think for Australia that access to a great and powerful friend and influencing policy which is said to be the real element of the alliance, will be there … he (Biden) won’t bring any surprises for Australia, it’s going to be the Obama-era establishment, people with expertise on Asia who are going to be pulled back to the administration. That’s good and bad … he could be too soft on China but I don’t think that’s the case, a lot of that is locked in Democratic veins and in Republican veins, which aren’t Trumpest, it’s to work alliances and partnerships so that will be good for Australia.”
China will be a challenge for the next US administration.
Biden has put forward a “competitive coexistence” approach to the rival China economy, declaring Trump’s economic war with them as ill conceived, disruptive and self-defeating.
Dr John Lee, a US Studies Centre senior fellow and former adviser to foreign minister Julie Bishop, said Biden will swiftly move to create an Asia Pacific strategy to “revive” US regional influence.
“In an environment of deepening strategic competition with China Biden’s more risk averse and calmer, i.e. less disruptive, temperament and instincts might be a blessing but possibly a problem,” he said.
He said Australia had, during Trump’s tenure and regional absence, accumulated new-found standing in the region by voicing opinion on fraught issues like the COVID-19 related short comings of the World Health Organisation and Beijing’s unhealthy sway over its leadership.
For this reason it would be critical for Canberra to not assume familiarity with Biden and his new team and instead scramble for access and influence in Washington.
“There will be immediate and immense opportunity for Canberra to play an out-sized role in setting the American institutional agenda in the early months of 2021,” he said.
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Originally published as US election 2020: Impact of Joe Biden’s policies on Australia, China and the rest of the world