Joe Biden’s prospects for midterm elections explained
The US President's latest gaffe and Covid-19 diagnosis are just some of the reasons why he is facing the toughest political test in office, as a comeback from Donald Trump looms.
World
Don't miss out on the headlines from World. Followed categories will be added to My News.
When Joe Biden stood before the White House Correspondent’s Dinner on day 406 of his presidency, it wasn’t clear if he was delivering a prediction or a punchline.
“I’m not worried about the midterms. I’m not worried about them,” the set-up began.
“We may end up with more partisan gridlock, but I’m confident we can work it out during my remaining six years in the presidency.”
Que the “claptre”, that stilted laughter suppressed by the clapping appreciation of an audience in agreement rather than in the uncontrollable throws of rapturous hilarity.
While ostensibly a comedy roast for Washington DC’s politico and media class, the president received more knowing applause than chuckles for the opening bit reflecting on how he’s tracking after 18 months in office.
Was that part of the comedic routine? Or was it Mr Biden’s genuine belief of his prospects in the November midterms, setting him up for a (likely) rematch with Donald Trump in 2024 to leave the Oval Office in 2029 at the ripe age of 86?
Whether the Democratic party can retain control of the Senate and House in Congress – and propel Mr Biden to a second term – will hinge on the fortunes of the president’s job approval, his advancing age, and the 6-ounce foetus in the room that is the Supreme Court’s leaked abortion ruling.
For his part, Mr Biden has indicated he’s serious about running for re-election. Publicly, he’s said he’ll be “very fortunate” to face off against Mr Trump again.
In leaked private conversations with former President Barack Obama, he’s said he’s the only one who can defeat the previous occupant of the White House.
“A special thanks to the 42 per cent of you who actually applauded,” the president continued in a moment of self-awareness of his standing with both the American press and the American voters.
Precisely six months out from the November 8 polling day, Mr Biden’s average approval rating of around 41 to 42 per cent lingers as the second worst among presidents for this point in a term, behind only Mr Trump at 39.1 per cent during the same period.
It’s a stark fall for a president whose extended honeymoon period came to a tragic end with the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
William J. Antholis, director of the University of Virginia’s nonpartisan Miller Center of Public Affairs, convened a roundtable of Republican, Democratic and independent researchers to reach a non-politicised picture of Mr Biden’s performance.
He and 10 researchers interviewed dozens of government officials, members of Congress, think-tank researchers, public consultants and non-profit leaders to reach a collective assessment of the president’s tenure.
Across the board, Mr Biden received near-universal praise for bringing professionals and professionalism back into government. Despite the collective experience, however, the administration’s failures were blamed on their inability to work together as a cohesive team, even as they remained overly insular and singularly minded.
Legislatively, Mr Biden had early and historic wins in both immediate crisis management and addressing slow-burn domestic issues, passing a $1.9 trillion Covid response bill and a $1 trillion infrastructure bill.
But despite controlling the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives, he failed to pass new laws governing voting or his signature campaign agenda, the “Build Back Better” social spending program, as moderates in his own party recoiled from what they saw as overreach.
“The early successes meant growing support for his leadership. He was making good on his promise of unity,” Mr Antholis said as a summary of his assessment.
“As the summer wore on – and as delta [Covid variant] and the Taliban simultaneously surged – Biden’s numbers fell.”
The latest Omicron wave hitting the globe has also hit Mr Biden, who tested positive for Covid-19 and is experiencing “mild symptoms” but will continue to carry out his duties from home. He started taking Paxlovid, an antiviral drug designed to reduce the severity of the disease.
It came after Mr Biden's embarrassing gaffe, where he said he has cancer during a speech about global warming. It forced the White House press office to clarify he was referring to skin cancer treatment that he had before taking office last year.
“That’s why I and so damn many other people I grew up with have cancer and why for the longest time Delaware had the highest cancer rate in the nation,” he said.
The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in August and the botched pandemic school reopening in September combined to send his approval rating into the free fall it remains in today.
“In retrospect, the president seems now to have been too eager to declare victory on Covid, to withdraw from Afghanistan, and to antagonise his opponents on a broad voting rights agenda,” added Mr Antholis.
Now that the honeymoon is over, renowned political pollster Frank Luntz says Mr Biden is a “clear liability” for the Democratic party.
“Afghanistan was that moment,” Mr Luntz told News Corp Australia of the public’s shift in sentiment.
“Biden was afraid that he would look like Vietnam. The truth is he looked like Jimmy Carter in Iran.”
The presidency of Democrat Jimmy Carter in the 1970s, and his handling of the Iranian hostage crisis, gave the United States Ronald Regan and the Republican decade of the 1980s.
Since Afghanistan, the compound effect of rising inflation, a declining economy, spiralling crime, unexpected food shortages and soaring gas prices have led to the prevailing wisdom that Democrats will lose both houses of Congress in November.
Mr Luntz, however, believes the Democrats are in a slightly better position than many expect overall, with an advantage in the Senate, which he believes they could still win.
“The public is fed up with politicians, politics. They are anxious, nervous, and frustrated about economic issues. They feel insecure over crime and immigration. And all the ingredients point to a Republican victory,” he said.
There are two exceptions. Mr Trump and Roe v Wade, the leaked Supreme Court decision that would effectively place the laws governing abortion from a court mandate to state legislatures.
While Mr Biden and Mr Trump both cast long shadows, the shapes of their liabilities have a disproportionate effect on the prospects of their party’s candidates.
“Trump is an asset in Florida. He’s an asset in Texas. But he’s a liability in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin,” Mr Luntz said.
While Mr Trump’s endorsements matter in the Republican primaries, his continued focus on personal grievances and the 2020 election means his chosen candidates may not be the strongest against Democrats in November.
Mr Biden’s weaknesses like job performance, age, and health concerns, meanwhile, affect his reputation in the White House but have negligible impact in the House and Senate races.
“It’s playing a role in Biden’s approval ratings and his favourability, but nobody’s voting for a Republican candidate for Congress because they think that Joe Biden is too old,” said Mr Luntz.
“It affects Joe Biden; it does not affect congressional Democrats. His age has no impact whatsoever.”
Mr Biden’s age, health and perceived cognitive decline have been a constant target of Republican attacks since announcing his presidential candidacy in 2019. As he entered his first State of the Union in February 2022, the septuagenarians’ mental fortitude became a mainstream concern.
A poll by ABC News/The Washington Post released on the eve of his speech found that 54 per cent of Americans don’t believe he has the “mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president”.
Only 40 per cent believe Mr Biden is mentally sharp enough for the job in a near-180-degree turnaround from 2020, when most Americans, 51 per cent, thought he had the mental acuity for holding office compared to the 43 per cent who didn’t.
Mr Biden has so far refused to either take a cognitive test, or release the results of one if he has.
Former White House doctor turned Republican congressman Ronny Jackson wrote a letter to the president, signed by 38 of his colleagues, demanding a test of his “cognitive and mental abilities”.
Mr Jackson listed examples of “changes in mood and personality” that the Alzheimer’s Association lists as signs of mental decline, including:
January 2022: Calling a White House press corps reporter a “stupid son of a b*tch”.
December 2021: Unable to read the accurate numbers of Americans who had received Covid booster shots.
May 2021: Telling a story about visiting his mother in 2013 despite her passing in 2010.
March 2021: Forgetting the name of the Pentagon, the Department of Defence, and the Defence Secretary.
February 2021: Forgetting the purpose of a visit to survey storm damage in Texas.
“This is not just a recent trend, as (Mr Biden’s) mental decline and forgetfulness have become more apparent over the past two years,” said Mr Jackson, who served as doctor to presidents Obama and Trump.
The White House’s current physician, Dr Kevin O’Connor, wrote in Mr Biden’s most recent health that he “remains fit for duty”.
Physically, Dr O’Connor said Mr Biden has experienced an increase in the frequency and severity of throat clearing caused by acid reflux.
He also observed an “ambulatory gait” that was “perceptibly stiffer and less fluid than it was a year ago”.
Dr O’Connor said it was due to wear and tear on Mr Biden’s spine, combined with a limp from a fracture in his right foot.
A neurological exam found no disorder like stroke, multiple sclerosis, or Parkinson’s disease, but did reveal mild peripheral neuropathy in both feet.
Dr Marc K Siegel, professor of medicine at New York University’s Langone Medical Centre, said it’s impossible to tell from the assessment how much longer Mr Biden has, either physically or cognitively, as a leader.
Dr Siegel has been assessing health records of both Democratic and Republican presidential candidates since 2008, when he reviewed the thousands of pages released by then-nominee John McCain in response to health concerns.
“I’m interested in that change in gait and what it might be due to. I’m interested in the fact that he (Mr Biden) has a history of aneurysm repair … and that he has had atrial fibrillation, all of which could lead to cognitive issues,” Dr Siegel said.
“I think that the public has a right to know when somebody is that age and with his medical history, exactly what is going on neurologically.”
In absence of those definitive answers, Dr Siegel said there’s a consensus that Mr Biden is not a strong leader or is particularly sharp. But there hasn’t been a specific event that would bring his ability to serve into further question.
“The GOP sees his feebleness and medical question mark as an advantage. And I think the Democrats don’t have anybody else. They don’t know what to do,” he said.
“To go beyond that and say, ‘well, what exactly is going on?’ that’s a possibility. But right now, that’s not on the table because he’s not running yet and everybody’s kind of waiting to see. If ‘22 is a disaster for the Democrats, ‘24 is a long way off.”
How the electorate will respond in the next six months remains in a state of flux. The leaked Supreme Court decision on abortion has up-ended the modelling as experts wait to see what impact it will have as a motivating factor in November.
Mr Luntz said Roe v Wade will energise young Democratic voters, but will not have as much of an overall impact on general voters concerned with the economy, inflation, and gas prices.
If Mr Biden focuses laser-like on those issues and supports policies that address food and fuel prices, like fast-tracking American fuel, he could still make an impact in November. The thing is, Mr Luntz said, Mr Biden is not likely to do the things he needs to do because this party is against them.
“The Democratic loss is not absolutely baked into the electorate, although it is likely at this point because we’re now six months away, and it’s very hard to see inflation coming down in time to make a difference,” Mr Luntz said.
“Barack Obama had a horrible 2008 and then he won by five points in 2012. Bill Clinton had a horrible 1994 and then he won re-election by five points in 96. So these things have happened in the past,” he added.
“The midterms are an evaluation of politics at that moment. And at this moment, so much is working against the Democrats. But even if they have a bad 2022, it does not guarantee that they’ve lost the White House in 2024. Two years is an eternity in American politics.”
More Coverage
Originally published as Joe Biden’s prospects for midterm elections explained
‘This could be war’: Hezbollah’s threat as Israel strikes Lebanon
Sonic booms from low flying Israeli jets shook Beiruit as Hezbollah’s chief broke his silence, saying explosive devices crossed ‘all red lines’ and could be ‘called a declaration of war’.
Queen Margrethe rushed to hospital after fall
Denmark’s Queen Margrethe, who abdicated in January in favour of her son King Frederik and his Australian wife Queen Mary, has been hospitalised after an accident at her home.