How the war in Ukraine could end

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created Europe’s worst security crisis since World War II. But how could the conflict end? We look at five ways the end of Putin’s aggression could unfold.

The world is staunchly behind Ukraine. Picture: AFP

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought on Europe’s worst security crisis since World War II and the most dangerous confrontation for the globe since the Cuban missile crisis. But how could the aggression end? We look at five ways the fighting in Ukraine could stop.

1. DISASTROUS QUAGMIRE

If Vladimir Putin thought Russia would just walk in and take over the country, he was mistaken - the Russian President could not have expected the resistance they have received from the Ukrainian military and the brave citizens fighting for their country.

If somehow the Ukrainian military and the country’s people are able to hold out long enough against Russian forces, and global economic sanctions start seriously affecting Putin’s economy, the resistance forces a stalemate on the battlefield that favours Ukraine.

Ukrainian tanks move on a road before an attack in Lugansk region. Picture: AFP

Russia would face the prospect of a long and costly slog in Ukraine, coupled with economic collapse and diplomatic isolation forcing Putin to order a withdrawal of his troops. Ukraine would remain a sovereign democracy, while Moscow’s defeat accelerates growing discontent across Russia forcing Putin to focus on internal threats to his power. Meanwhile, NATO is faced with an improved security situation, as Russia is chastened and Ukraine grows ever closer to the West.

2. FOREIGN-IMPOSED REGIME CHANGE

The objective here would be to simply remove the existing government in Ukraine and replace it with a government that’s Putin – read Russia – friendly. Russia would turn Ukraine into what currently exists with Belarus. They would replace the current government, with Volodymyr Zelensky ousted or in exile, and they’d install an amiable government.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has become a global pariah. Picture: AFP

3. ‘STATE DEATH’

Paul Poast, a professor of foreign policy and war at the University of Chicago, told the Atlantic that “state death” (a term coined by Tanisha Fazal, a professor in international relations at the University of Minnesota) is when a state no longer exists because it is annexed or conquered, and is no longer independent. This would mean Russia’s objective is not just to put in a new government, but to take over the entire country and make Ukraine part of Russia, which the country did with Crimea.

A girl member of the Ukranian community holds a sign reading "Stop Putler" (Putin+Hitler) during a protest outside of the Russian embassy in Buenos Aires. Picture: AFP

4. A NEW IRON CURTAIN

Putin’s words have made it clear he wants Ukraine as part of Russia. Indeed, it’s clear the Russian leader wants to to recreate the Soviet Union and with it, a new Russian Empire. This plan, however, will not end with just Ukraine.

There are other states, former Soviet republics like Moldova, Belarus, and Georgia — a country that Russia invaded in 2008. These countries are independent states that used to be part of either the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire.

A couple sits in an underground metro station used as bomb shelter in Kyiv. Picture: AFP

Professor Poast explained that the reason why this is called “imperial overreach” is because a common thing that happens with a lot of empire endeavours is you overextend yourself and create an ungovernable entity. That is the risk that this scenario poses, let alone the challenge of having enough military success to do the conquering.

5. A RUSSIA-NATO WAR

The most dangerous scenario for the future of Europe and the global order is one in which the Ukraine conflict sets the stage for a direct military conflict between NATO and Russia.

NATO could decide to up its involvement in Ukraine by, for example, attempting to implement a no-fly zone or another form of direct intervention.

Russia could inadvertently strike a NATO member’s territory prompting countermeasures from the alliance.

Originally published as How the war in Ukraine could end