How Putin could take Ukraine’s capital by force

As the war rages in Ukraine, the fall of Kyiv — the nation’s capital and most populous city — is looking inevitable. Here’s what may happen next.

As the war continues in Ukraine, the fall of Kyiv — the nation’s capital and most populous city — is looking inevitable.

We ask one of Australia’s leading experts, the University of Sydney’s Professor Graeme Gill, the former president of the International Council for Central and East European Studies, to take us through what is likely to happen next.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin has his sights set on capturing Kyiv. Picture: Wang Zhao / AFP

IS IT LOOKING LIKELY THAT PUTIN WILL TAKE KYIV BY FORCE?

Professor Graeme Gill: “Yes. In the absence of the Ukrainians surrendering Kyiv, the Russian army is likely to take it by force. This is likely to be a bloody and not easy task because fighting in a built-up urban area suits guerrilla defenders rather than regular forces as attackers.”

This Maxar satellite image shows a Russian military convoy north of Kyiv. Picture: AFP

WHAT IS THE RUSSIAN ENCIRCLEMENT OF UKRAINE’S CAPITAL LOOKING LIKE?

GG: “Encirclement is already occurring with Russian forces in large part surrounding Kyiv. The question is the extent to which Russian air power is used to flatten parts of the city ion order to assist the ground forces that would enter the city.

“We don’t know this, but it may depend on the extent of the resistance mounted by Ukrainian forces.”

People queue to enter the main rail terminal before making their onward journey Lviv as Russian forces advance toward Kyiv from three sides. Picture: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

WILL RUSSIA DESTROY ALL COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS?

GG: “There are short and longer term perspectives here. Destruction of the domestic Ukrainian communications infrastructure may assist in the fighting because of the way that would hamper Ukrainian forces, but it would also be a problem for any post-invasion government the Russians sought to install.

“Again it may depend upon the strength of the opposition. We have already seen attacks on communication infrastructure, which would suggest that the shorter term perspective will rule what they do.”

A man takes pictures of a damaged residential building at Koshytsa Street, a suburb of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. Picture: Daniel Leal / AFP)

IF THE RUSSIANS DO TAKE KYIV, WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?

GG: “When the Russians take Kyiv, I assume they will establish a puppet Ukrainian government which will declare itself the rightful government of the country.

“The problem will be that a substantial part of the Ukrainian population will not recognise its authority.

“Given the levels of resistance we have thus far seen, it is likely that a guerrilla force will continue to oppose the Russians and that government.

“Unless the Russians can seal off the western border of Ukraine, the guerrillas will probably continue to be supplied with arms and wherewithal by the West, prolonging the conflict.

“This will especially be the case if a government in exile is established, which will likely happen.”

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. Picture: AFP

WILL PUTIN LET UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY LIVE OR DIE?

GG: “It depends if they catch him. He is a symbol of resistance and it would make sense for the Russians to have him die if they want to create clear air for any government they were to set in place.”

COULD PUTIN BE APPREHENDED FOR WAR CRIMES IF HE TAKES KYIV?

GG: “Even if charges were brought, it is unlikely they could ever be served.”

IF PUTIN DOES SUCCEED IN TAKING KYIV WHAT WILL THIS MEAN FOR THE OTHER BALTIC STATES? WILL HE INVADE MORE COUNTRIES?

GG: “No; Ukraine has special strategic and emotional significance that the Baltic states lack.”