Donald Trump: Here’s what could happen if former US president is arrested

Former US president Donald Trump has put his followers on notice that he expects to be arrested. Here’s what could happen if he is.

Former US president Donald Trump has sounded the alarm and warned his supporters that he expects to be arrested on Tuesday, local time, in a case involving hush money paid to adult actress Stormy Daniels.

Mr Trump, 76, who is mulling over a run for a second term in the White House, took to social media, issuing a call for his followers to stage protests in response to the case mounted by the Manhattan District Attorney’s office.

Now, security services are bracing for a political spectacle at best - and at worst, violence akin to the Capitol riot on January 6 of 2021.

Here is what to expect this week, and what you need to know.

Supporters of Donald Trump drive near his Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Florida. Picture: AFP

HOW LIKELY IS AN INDICTMENT?

Although the Manhattan District Attorney’s office has not confirmed any plans for an indictment, Mr Trump’s Saturday announcement on Truth Social was a major indication.

Another sign: Mr Trump himself was invited to testify, although he refused.

“Prosecutors almost never invite the target of the investigation to testify in the grand jury unless they’re planning on indicting that individual,” according to Pace University law professor and former prosecutor Bennett Gershman.

The porn star known as Stormy Daniels, who claims she was paid US$130,000 (A$194,000) to not reveal her 2006-2007 affair with Mr Trump before the 2016 election, has co-operated with the grand jury.

Mr Trump’s former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen, who has acknowledged making the payment to Ms Daniels and said he was later reimbursed, has also testified before the panel.

Former US President Donald Trump has said he expects to be arrested on Tuesday and has called for supporters to protest on his behalf. Picture: AFP

HOW LONG DOES AN INDICTMENT TAKE?

A Trump indictment would begin a lengthy process that could last several months, as the case would face a mountain of legal issues and move toward jury selection.

In the immediate term, however, it would trigger several steps, including preparing for exactly how an arrest - or more likely a surrender to authorities, given the nonviolent nature of the charges and Mr Trump’s status as a former president - would play out.

“This is really unprecedented, and there is no playbook for this,” former long-time US Secret Service agent Robert McDonald, now a criminal justice professor at the University of New Haven, told AFP on Sunday.

He expects a “choreographed” scenario in which the Secret Service would make special arrangements with the District Attorney’s office for Mr Trump to arrive at the courthouse in a secure fashion that does not make a “spectacle” out of the process.

In other words, no handcuffs and no perp walk through the court’s front door, Mr McDonald predicted.

A New York Police Department vehicle sits in front of Trump Tower in New York City. Picture: AFP

WILL TRUMP BE HANDCUFFED AND TAKEN TO PRISON?

Former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti tweeted on Saturday that he expects Mr Trump “would appear voluntarily in court, be fingerprinted and booked, and would be released on bond.”

Given Mr Trump’s prominence and his ongoing 2024 presidential bid, the judge likely would not deem the former president a flight risk and he would be free to go after processing, including any bond paid if required.

“My guess is he will not be held overnight,” Mr McDonald said.

Shan Wu, a former federal prosecutor now in private practice, agrees, adding that aside from the heavy security, a Trump “self-surrender” could likely look like any other white-collar case.

But Mr Trump has a flair for the dramatic and some have openly wondered whether the combative ex-president might refuse to turn himself in, essentially challenging Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office to arrest him.

“One could imagine Trump wanting to do that for the politics and the optics, to make himself look more sympathetic,” Mr Wu told AFP. “That’s something Bragg’s office would be dreading.”

WHAT HAPPENS IF THERE IS ANOTHER RIOT?

Law enforcement agencies are co-ordinating a major operation in the event Mr Trump is indicted, including a ratcheting up of security measures, experts said.

But Mr Trump urging supporters to “PROTEST, TAKE OUR NATION BACK!” presents a new wrinkle for authorities, given the violence that erupted on January 6, 2021, when his backers stormed the US Capitol seeking to halt certification of Mr Trump’s election defeat.

Pro-Trump groups are already mobilising. The New York Young Republican Club is promoting a Monday event in lower Manhattan it bills as a “peaceful protest of Alvin Bragg’s heinous attack” on Mr Trump.

While authorities have given no indication they expect violence near the courthouse, CNN cited unnamed sources saying law enforcement agencies were addressing the potential for demonstrations by Trump supporters and opponents, with the risk of clashes.

Meanwhile, the police department in Washington, scene of the US Capitol riot two years ago, said Sunday it was “not aware of any” protests in the district related to Mr Trump’s possible indictment.

- with AFP