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What happened to hero TV protester

Details surrounding the woman who stormed Russian TV news in protest of the war in Ukraine have been revealed.

Extraordinary act of defiance on Russian state TV (Channel One)

The brave anti-war activist who barged onto the set of Russia’s most-watched evening news holding a poster reading “No War” has been fined after going missing for nearly 24 hours.

Marina Ovsyannikova, an editor at state-controlled flagship station Channel 1, denied one charge of “organising an unauthorised public event” in court, but was fined 30,000 roubles after the court found her guilty of flouting protest legislation.

After the court appearance, the mother of two said she had been questioned for more than 14 hours without legal help or the opportunity to contact her loved ones.

She told the BBC: “It was my anti-war decision. I made this decision by myself because I don’t like Russia starting this invasion. It was really terrible.”

Ms Ovsyannikova stormed Russia’s most-watched evening news show, holding up a poster saying “No War” and condemning the Ukraine war.

The incident was a highly unusual breach of security at the tightly controlled state broadcaster Channel One.

Its flagship 9pm news show called “Time” has run since the Soviet era and is watched by millions around the country, particularly by older Russians.

As the news anchor Yekaterina Andreyeva launched into an item about relations with Belarus, Ms Ovsyannikova, who wore a dark formal suit, burst into view, holding up a hand-written poster saying “No War” in English.

A man looks at a computer screen watching a dissenting Russian Channel One employee entering Ostankino on-air TV studio during Russia's most-watched evening news broadcast, holding up a poster which reads as "No War" and condemning Moscow's military action in Ukraine. Picture: AFP
A man looks at a computer screen watching a dissenting Russian Channel One employee entering Ostankino on-air TV studio during Russia's most-watched evening news broadcast, holding up a poster which reads as "No War" and condemning Moscow's military action in Ukraine. Picture: AFP

Below, the poster said in Russian: “Stop the war. Don’t believe the propaganda. Here they are lying to you.”

It is signed in English: “Russians against the war”.

Andreyeva, who has presented the news since 1998, tried to drown her out by speaking louder.

The channel then switched hastily to footage of a hospital.

EXPLAINED: CAN PUTIN WIN THE WAR?

As the war in Ukraine rages and the death toll mounts, millions are fleeing their homeland and many more are under attack.

Ukraine says it will fight to the end but can Russian President Vladimir Putin win this war? If so, what does it mean for the world?

We ask one of Australia’s leading experts, the University of Sydney’s Professor Graeme Gill, the former president of the International Council for Central and East European Studies, for his verdict.

IS PUTIN STILL IN WITH A CHANCE TO WIN THE WAR IN UKRAINE

Professor Graeme Gill: “Yes. The overwhelming preponderance of military power lies with Russia and while this is so, the likelihood of Russian victory remains.

“Of course there are also problems with the Russian performance – logistical supply issues, potentially flagging morale among the troops, equipment malfunction and overall strategy – and the extent of opposition has been much greater than anticipated, not just from the Ukrainians themselves but internationally.

“And these do pose a question as to whether the sort of victory initially envisaged is still possible.”

Teenager Maksim Korobych holds his guitar as he stands in front of a destroyed apartment building in the northwestern Obolon district of Kyiv. Picture: Aris Messinis / AFP
Teenager Maksim Korobych holds his guitar as he stands in front of a destroyed apartment building in the northwestern Obolon district of Kyiv. Picture: Aris Messinis / AFP

WHAT WOULD A RUSSIAN VICTORY LOOK LIKE?

GG: “The quick and decisive victory originally envisaged by the Russians has not eventuated. Instead it has become a hard slog involving substantial long range shelling and bombing or infrastructure, both military and civilian.

“The latter has involved extensive civilian casualties, while both have caused widespread devastation.

“Both of these mean that if a Russian victory is achieved, it will be over a population many of whom remain opposed to them and a civilian infrastructure in need of substantial rebuilding.

“Although there will be some parts of the population that will probably welcome Russian rule, most won’t.

A girl holds her sibling in a temporary shelter for Ukrainian refugees in a school in Przemysl, near the Ukrainian-Polish border. The number of refugees fleeing Ukraine is now nearly 2.7 million, the UN said. Picture: Louisa Gouliamaki / AFP
A girl holds her sibling in a temporary shelter for Ukrainian refugees in a school in Przemysl, near the Ukrainian-Polish border. The number of refugees fleeing Ukraine is now nearly 2.7 million, the UN said. Picture: Louisa Gouliamaki / AFP

“Therefore any new administration will have to rule over a truculent populace, possibly sustaining a continuing decentralised guerrilla conflict.

“This would be an unstable situation and one which a new administration, especially if seen as a Russian puppet (which it would in all likelihood be seen), would find difficulty in establishing its authority.

“So regardless of whether Russian direct rule or the rule of an installed puppet regime eventuates, the situation is likely to remain unstable.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with his Belarus counterpart Alexander Lukashenko at the Kremlin. Picture: Mikhail Klimentyev / SPUTNIK / AFP
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with his Belarus counterpart Alexander Lukashenko at the Kremlin. Picture: Mikhail Klimentyev / SPUTNIK / AFP

WHAT HAPPENS IF PUTIN LOSES?

GG: “Depends on how the situation works out on the ground. Even if the Russians lost, the return of Crimea to Ukraine would be unlikely, and the defiance of the pro-Russian separatists in Luhansk and Donetsk would likely be strengthened.

“The position of the Ukrainian government would be strengthened, but its ability to pursue a military solution to Crimea or Luhansk/Donetsk would be limited.

“Russian defeat would hasten the Ukrainian path to the West, strengthening its demands for entry to the EU and NATO.

“Within Russia, defeat would place a question mark over the likelihood of Putin remaining in office past 2024 when the next presidential election is due.”

A doctor treats a boy, who was injured by the shelling in a hospital in Ukraine's second-biggest city of Kharkiv. Picture: Sergey Bobok / AFP
A doctor treats a boy, who was injured by the shelling in a hospital in Ukraine's second-biggest city of Kharkiv. Picture: Sergey Bobok / AFP

PUTIN HAS NEVER LOST A WAR. DOES THIS MEAN HE WON’T BACK DOWN?

GG: “He is unlikely to back down. To stop the conflict, he will want to have something that he can claim as a victory.

“The four things he has spoken about are a neutral Ukraine (ie non-NATO membership), Ukrainian recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, autonomy for Luhansk and Donetsk, and the replacement of the Ukrainian government.

“He has also spoken in terms suggesting Ukraine as a state has no right to exist, but this is likely hyperbole.

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a Security Council meeting via videolink in Moscow. Picture: Mikhail Klimentyev / SPUTNIK / AFP
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a Security Council meeting via videolink in Moscow. Picture: Mikhail Klimentyev / SPUTNIK / AFP

“On the four issues, only the first has been tentatively broached by the Ukrainians, the others are more difficult. But I suspect for Putin, the first two are the key.

“But of course all of this assumes a stalemate rather than a Russian victory. If there was a Russian victory, including the capture of Kyiv and then government, all four issues could be achievable by Russia.

“The question is how stable that would be given that within Ukraine there would still be substantial sentiment opposed to such concessions.”

Firefighters search a smouldering apartment building after it was shelled in the northwestern Obolon district. Picture: Aris Messinis / AFP
Firefighters search a smouldering apartment building after it was shelled in the northwestern Obolon district. Picture: Aris Messinis / AFP

WHAT HAPPENS IF CHINA INTERVENES?

GG: “They will not intervene militarily, although they may provide material assistance (including in getting around sanctions).

“They have been pushed together by opposition to the international order that has been dominated by the West, and they clearly want that structure reworked.

“The dynamic of the China-US relationship is crucial to this, and the hypocritical stance taken by the US (it is against international law and the international order when Russia invades Ukraine but not when US invades Iraq or bombs Serbia or Libya) will only reinforce the commitment to work for a new international order.”

Original URL: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/explained-can-putin-win-the-war-in-ukraine/news-story/5c486de371a42d04e9dbd300291e706c