Dark threat Vladimir Putin ally could spark new war

Vladimir Putin’s ally has warned of another European war as there are concerns over the “militarisation of Poland” and its “aggressive intentions”.

Russia’s best friend Belarus is making some odd claims. It says Poland has been “militarised”. It says Poland has “aggressive intentions”. We’ve heard such allegations before – in 1939.

Then, German Fuehrer Adolf Hitler offered “implausible deniability” to Britain and France as diplomatic wiggle room to back out of their alliance with the weak east European state.

After staging attacks on German border facilities with German Waffen SS special forces troops dressed in Polish uniforms, Hitler unleashed his modern tanks on Poland’s ancient horse cavalry.

History may not repeat. But it does rhyme.

Belarusian Security Council secretary Alexander Volfovich has this week warned of another European war.

He blames Poland.

Not Russia.

“Being an outpost in the Eastern European region of collective security, Belarus has faced, unfortunately, all security challenges and threats,” he said. “First of all, we are concerned about the military presence on the territory of the neighbouring states, and the military rhetoric from our neighbours.”

He failed to mention Belarus has been used as a staging ground for Russian troops, tanks and combat aircraft since February, supporting the invasion of Ukraine.

And while Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has so far refused to send his troops across the border to assist his close ally, he’s starting to change his tune.

Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko vowed to conduct ‘joint deployments’ with President Vladimir Putin’s military units. Picture: Alexander Nemenov / AFP

Late last month Lukashenko vowed to conduct “joint deployments” with President Vladimir Putin’s military units. He also ordered new “counterterrorist measures” within his country “in connection with the escalation along the perimeter of the borders”.

Russian and Belarusian troops will deploy a “Joint Military Group” to face what Lukashenko describes as increased tensions on his western border.

Implausible deniability

“Ukraine is not just discussing but planning strikes on the territory of Belarus,” Lukashenko asserted late last month. “If you want peace, you have to prepare for war.”

Since then, his government has adopted this line in the hope that repetition alone will strengthen the case.

“Militarisation of Poland and its aggressive intentions are of primary concern: To the detriment of their own economic interests, (Poland) has opted for militarisation, an increase in the number of armed forces, hardware,” Volfovich said

“No one cares about ordinary Polish people and their needs. But the goal of these actions is clear: to unleash aggression. Unleash aggression against whom? Naturally, the closest is the Republic of Belarus,” he added.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is desperate for help. Picture: Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik/AFP

Volfovich was insistent that Belarus was the intended victim.

“The Polish leadership must understand that if it unleashes aggression, the war will affect not only the territory of Belarus. It will set the entire Eastern Europe on fire. This will affect the peaceful people of Poland and other countries, who will not forgive their political leaders for what they did,” the Security Council secretary added.

But it’s worse than that.

Poland is a member of NATO. Any attack by Belarus or Russia – no matter the pretence – on its soil would trigger the involvement of all of Europe and the United States.

Between the lines

Putin is desperate for help.

His armed forces are in disarray.

Losses have been so heavy, Moscow has been reactivating 50-year-old tanks and armoured vehicles. An urgent conscription campaign has seen tens of thousands of poorly trained and poorly equipped troops rushed to the front lines.

North Korea has offered to help replenish Putin’s stock of missiles and artillery.

Iran is providing expendable loitering drones and the crews needed to operate them.

And the pressure’s on Lukashenko to do more.

The Belarusian leader has long been beholden to Putin for political, economic and security support. And his reliance has only increased amid growing unrest following staged elections.

Lukashenko now needs a crisis to divert attention.

Without citing any evidence, he has accused Ukraine of planning an attack on his country. He says his new “counterterrorist measures” are being done “in accordance with the existing protocol of the union of Belarus and Russia.”

Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) researcher Krista Viksnins says, “Russia is gearing up for something”.

“It is apparent Russia is currently losing the war in Ukraine, so the Kremlin needs to do something drastic to change the course of things,” she said.

The Belarusian leader has long been beholden to Putin for political, economic and security support. Picture: Ramil Sitdikov / Sputnik / AFP

Thinking the unthinkable

Many of Moscow’s best military units have been destroyed in Ukraine. But it’s kept others in reserve around Moscow and facing the borders of Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

But NATO’s military state isn’t all that healthy, either.

“There have been no public official net assessments of how NATO compares with Russia and Belarus – Russia’s only current real strategic partner in military terms,” says Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) researcher Anthony Cordesman. “Most public reporting sharply over-estimated both the size and progress of Russian conventional forces, but there is no clear picture of what these capabilities really are.”

NATO’s capabilities are also unclear.

Germany, for example, reportedly has just a handful of its 200 Tornado and Typhoon in a state fit to fly. It’s said to be a similar story for its tanks.

As Russian troops crossed into Ukraine in March, Berlin promised a significant spending increase to rectify this.

“It is already clear, however, that all NATO countries face major civil spending challenges in recovering from the impact of Covid, and that they have also faced major new inflationary strains partly because of the rises in energy costs coming out of the sanctions placed on Russian gas and oil exports,” Mr Cordesman writes. “It is becoming less clear that they will continue to spend on Ukraine if the war goes on at a serious level for several more years, and even less clear they will spend on making critical improvements in their own forces.”

Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel

Originally published as Dark threat Vladimir Putin ally could spark new war