‘It has begun’: Ukraine launches counteroffensive on Russia

Ukraine has reportedly launched its long-awaited counteroffensive on Russia, as its rescuers evacuating residents from flooding caused by a blown up dam have become the target of shelling.

Ukraine’s army seems to be kicking its long-expected offensive into gear, as Kyiv attempts to break through Moscow’s defences and take back its territory.

Kyiv has remained vague about its plans and has said there would be no formal announcement, trying to use the fog of war to its advantage.

Ukraine’s social media savvy defence ministry shared a video on June 4 showing soldiers in fatigues putting their fingers to their lips.

“Plans love silence,” said the video, widely believed to be about the counteroffensive.

But on Thursday, the Washington-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Twitter said, “The Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun.” “Ukraine’s initial counteroffensive operations may be the most difficult and slowest, as they involve penetrating prepared defensive positions,” the ISW said.

“This phase may also see the highest Ukrainian losses,” the ISW said. Military analyst Michael Kofman told the Financial Times on Thursday that “based on the action yesterday, and the Western systems employed, it appears that the Ukrainian offensive is under way.” For weeks, Kyiv has taken action in preparation for the offensive: drones firing on Moscow, attacks on Russian soil, and reconnaissance to test Russian defences.

A Ukrainian serviceman fires a rocket launcher during a military training exercise not far from front line in Donetsk region on June 8, 2023.Picture: Anatolii Stepanov / AFP.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday Ukraine’s counteroffensive had begun but that Kyiv had so far “failed” to reach its goals.

“We can definitely state that this Ukrainian offensive has begun,” Putin said in a video interview published on Telegram by a Russian journalist.

“But the Ukrainian troops did not reach their aims in any area of combat,” he added.

With new military equipment from the West -- including German tanks -- Kyiv is under pressure to prove it can succeed.

Commenting on Ukraine’s preparation for the offensive, a senior French officer told AFP: “The Ukrainians are under a lot of pressure and we may be at a turning point in the war.”

Future negotiations with Moscow are foremost in the minds of Ukraine’s leaders, the officer said.

Ukrainian success on the battlefield means they would enter future negotiations “from a position of strength.” The geopolitical picture and the calculus of Western leaders may change in two years, with elections in the United States in 2024 and Western weapons stocks depleting.

“The Ukrainians know this all too well,” the officer told AFP. In Zaporizhzhia, where Moscow claims to have repelled an attack, the “front is largely fortified but less densely than in Donetsk,” said French military historian Michel Goya to AFP earlier this week.

The prize for Kyiv and Moscow is the southern city of Melitopol, Goya told AFP. “But if you reach Melitopol, it is strategic: you cut the front in two.” A French military source speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity said the Russian defence has “six defensive lines.” Some Russian bloggers have mockingly called Russia’s defence the “Faberge line,” referring to the imperial Easter eggs made in the 19th century for the tsars.

“All in all, it is around 30 kilometres (19 miles),” the French officer said. “The first line allows you to see what is happening, the second line is to stop an attack and is heavily mined.

“Then (the third line) has artillery -- tanks for the counter-attack -- then (the fourth) the reserves, then the (fifth) command posts and logistics.” One source from a Western intelligence service told AFP last week: “I can’t imagine either one gaining the upper hand.” One thing is more certain and that is the fact that claims and counter-claims from both sides will attempt to assert victory -- even in case of failure.

RESCUE BOATS HIT IN FLOODED ZONES

Ukraine and Russia accused each other of shelling rescuers and evacuees in the flood-hit Kherson region as Moscow said its forces fought off a Ukrainian offensive in another part of the front line.

Emergency services were still racing to rescue people stranded by the flood-swollen waters of the Dnipro River, which have forced thousands to flee.

Thousands of Ukrainians are fleeing their homes from potential flooding after the Kakhova dam was partially destroyed. Picture: Maxar Technologies/AFP

The destruction of a major Russian-held dam on the river on Tuesday left 600sq/km of the region under water.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the area on Thursday after floods inundated dozens of villages and parts of the regional capital, Kherson.
“I thank the rescuers and volunteers! I thank everyone involved in this work!” wrote Mr Zelenskyy, who also visited survivors in hospital.

Damage to the Kakhovka hydro-electric dam. Picture: Maxar Technologies/AFP

Shortly after the visit, Kyiv said Russian strikes in the centre of Kherson and the surrounding region killed one person and injured 18 more, including emergency services staff.
Moscow-installed authorities on the other bank of the Dnipro River, which is controlled by Russian forces, said two evacuees were killed by Ukrainian shelling.

A cat swims among floating debris in the water in Kherson after floodwaters engulfed the city following damage sustained at Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam. Picture: AFP

The death toll from the flooding reached six as the Moscow-backed administration of Nova Kakhovka, where the dam is located, said five people had died and 41 admitted in hospital.
Ukrainian police said one man had died in a riverside village in the neighbouring Mykolaiv region, also affected by rising water levels.
US President Joe Biden said Washington would provide long-term military support to Kyiv “as long as it takes”, while the Netherlands said it was sending rescue boats and water pumps.

TWO-HOUR BATTLE

In the neighbouring Zaporizhzhia region, Russia said its forces had fought a two-hour battle with Ukrainian troops in the early hours of Thursday.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said the Ukrainian offensive involved 1500 soldiers and 150 armoured vehicles.
“The enemy was stopped and retreated after heavy losses,” he said.
Ukrainian officials have said their forces are ready for a long-expected counteroffensive but that there would be no formal announcement when it begins.
Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Ganna Maliar said only that Russia was conducting “defensive actions” near the town of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region.

A submerged basketball court in Kherson after floodwaters engulfed the city. Picture: AFP

In another development, Ukrainian authorities said water levels in a reservoir which had been created by the Kahovka dam had fallen “below the critical point of 12.7 metres (42 feet)”.
This meant the reservoir was no longer able to supply households and the cooling ponds at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station, Europe’s largest.
However late Thursday the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said he nuclear plant was continuing to receive water from the reservoir after the dam was damaged.
The plant’s six reactors have been shut down but they still need cooling water to ensure there is no nuclear disaster.
Ukraine meanwhile called on Europe to double power supplies to two gigawatts.

An elderly woman cries, because she can't find her dog in Kherson, Ukraine after shelling and the destruction of a dam that caused flooding. Picture: Getty Images

‘STILL PEOPLE IN THERE’

In the Kherson region, Ukrainian rescuers said they were venturing into Russian-controlled areas to save civilians despite the danger.
The area is the estuary of the Dnipro River and is dotted with islands and marshland where the precise location of the front line is sometimes unclear.
Ukrainian authorities have said 30 settlements were flooded, 10 of which lie in territory controlled by Russia on the Dnipro’s eastern bank.

Water levels rose in the city of Kherson following damage sustained at Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam. Picture: AFP

Rescuers used boats and amphibious vehicles to pluck people from flooded areas.
Some volunteers were also going out to rescue stranded animals and birds.
One woman, Tetiana Omelchenko, 65, said she had waited two days to be evacuated from her block of flats in Kherson and had to climb through a broken window to reach a rescue boat.
“In my building, the water has reached the third floor and there are still people in there,” she said.

Rescuers ride an all-terrain vehicle during an evacuation from a flooded area in Kherson following damages sustained at Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam. Picture: AFP

‘OUTRAGEOUS DESTRUCTION’

In Brussels, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urged members of the alliance to speed up humanitarian assistance to Ukraine after the destruction of the dam.

The World Health Organisation sounded a grim warning.

“The impact on the region’s water supply, sanitation systems and public health services cannot be underestimated,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters on Thursday.

“WHO has rushed in to support the authorities and health care workers in preventive measures against waterborne diseases and to improve disease surveillance,” he said.

The Dnipro river has served as a frontline between the warring armies following Russia's retreat from Kherson and surrounding areas last autumn. Picture: Getty Images

Ukrhydroenergo, the dam’s operator, said it was most likely mined from the inside.

The emergency service has warned the flood water has dislodged land mines that pose a threat to civilians.

The government has also sounded the alarm over the environmental impact, calling it “a crime of ecocide”.

A Greenpeace campaigner in Kyiv, Denys Tsutsaiev, warned that it could take a decade for some species to recover from the catastrophe and some may not recover at all.

According to the latest information, “at least 500 tonnes of oil was released due to the dam destruction,” the campaigner said, posing a threat to sea mammals and birds.

Originally published as ‘It has begun’: Ukraine launches counteroffensive on Russia