Downpour expected for Christmas Day in Melbourne, Carols by Candlelight bracing for storms

Melburnians can have a Christmas roast and pudding in comfort with rain forecast for the 25th, but other parts of the state will be warm and dry. Meanwhile Carols by Candlelight could be hit by thunderstorms.

Rain and thunderstorms are forecast for Christmas Day in Melbourne. Picture: Valeriu Campan

Melburnians can have a Christmas roast and pudding in comfort this year, because it’s set to be mild and even rainy on the 25th.

Melbourne’s latest weather forecast for Monday predicts cloud, rain and a maximum temperature of just 23 degrees.

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting heavy downpours and potential thunderstorms for some parts of the state, including Melbourne, on Christmas Day.

Meanwhile, Melbourne’s Carols by Candlelight also faces a potential washout, with a high chance of showers, and a possible thunderstorm forecast for the late afternoon and evening.

Organisers say the Carols will go on at Sidney Myer Music Bowl rain, hail or shine. Picture: Derrick den Hollander

The outdoors event will begin at the Sidney Myer Music Bowl from 8pm, with organisers adamant the show will go on rain, hail or shine.

The Bureau warned a low pressure system developing on the NSW/ Victoria border will drag the storm risk “across much of Victoria” on Christmas Eve, bringing wet weather as the day progresses.

Christmas weather around the state

A spokesperson from the bureau said many parts of Victoria could also expect south easterly winds of up to 25 to 40 km/h and cooler than average temperatures.

Geelong and Ballarat have almost identical Christmas Day forecasts to Melbourne, but conditions in Bendigo will be slightly better, with less cloud and a high of 24C.

Residents of eastern Victoria are most likely to have a damp Christmas, with a 70 per cent chance of Christmas Day rainfall in Bairnsdale and a 60 per cent chance in Traralgon.

As usual, the north is the place to be for warmth with a lovely 29C and sunny predicted in Mildura and highs of 26C forecast in Shepparton.

Looking ahead to the start of 2024, a warmer than average January is predicted for the west of Victoria, while the central and eastern parts of the state are expected to be close to average. Rainfall for January is predicted to be about average, with a slightly drier than usual month forecast in the west.

“These January outlooks reflect the impact of a few climate drivers, including El Nino,” Ms Miles said.

“Since model forecasts indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean warming has likely peaked, El Nino will have less of an influence on our summer weather and hence the outlook rainfall being close to median during January.”