The average margin in BFNL games has almost halved in three years

Demoralising 100-point plus smashings once occurred almost every round in the BFNL. However, they’ve dramatically reduced over the past three years.

Ask a Bellarine footy fan and they’re likely to tell you: we’re in one of the most competitive seasons in recent memory.

And the numbers back up that gut feel.

However, the improving fortunes of one BFNL club, who were the whipping boys for many seasons, appears to have helped shift the dial significantly.

It’s early days as we’re only four rounds in, but the ladder has been flipped on its head to some respect, with Newcomb, who have been in the bottom three the past three BFNL seasons, currently fourth while perennial contender Barwon Heads have dropped to eighth after three consecutive losses.

In their defence, Torquay, the Ammos and Anglesea is a tough run.

Portarlington coach Portarlington coach Darren Findlay. Picture: Mark Wilson

Meanwhile, the Warriors began the season 0-3 but have made up ground in recent weeks while the reigning premier – stripped of some its elite players during the off-season – dropped their first two games.

But on the back of some standout games from its emerging youngsters – Banjo Dyer (eight majors against Barwon Heads) and Will Montebello (11 goals from his past two games) – the title defence is on course.

AFL Barwon believes those youthful contributions are behind the BFNL’s competitiveness, but a 5-0 Geelong Amateur looms large.

Queenscliff is only 10 per centage points outside the five and have knocked off last year’s preliminary finalists in Drysdale and pushed the Seagulls to a straight kick.

However, a huge test awaits the Coutas on Saturday against the Ammos, and could be a limtus test for how even the competition really is.

A team boasting Sam Lloyd, Mitch Day, Tom Gribble, Dan Weigl, Blake Sutterby and others speaks for itself.

It was all so different back in 2022, in terms of competitiveness, with the average margin 63.1 points.

Three seasons later, and after four rounds, the average margin has almost halved to 34 in the BFNL.

In fact, the average margin has dropped every year since 2022, with 53.7 in 2023 and 40 in 2024.

The other thing that stands out is the huge thrashings which used to be common fare in the Bellarine, and traditionally at the expense of Portarlington.

In 2022, there were 14 defeats of 100 points or more, and 12 of those involved the Demons, including six in a row.

And there were 240 and 218-point defeats of the Demons at the hands of Barwon Heads and Modewarre respectively in consecutive weeks in May.

Portarlington’s Mitchell Turnbull celebrates a goal against Newcomb. Picture: Mark Wilson

That number had dropped to 10 in 2023 (seven against Portarlington) and three last year (just one).

Portarlington were beaten by an average of 136 points in 2022, which has dropped to 50 in 2025.

And while it’s only been a small sample size so far in 2025, the biggest defeat of the year was a 75-point win for Drysdale over the Warriors – without the likes of Tom Hornsey and Ryan Williams – in Round 2.

In a statement, AFL Barwon chair Michelle Gerdtz said the evenness of the competition was a reflection of clubs’ efforts to build strong junior programs, especially at the Demons.

Internally, the club is crowing about the likes of Jesse Hunter, Harry Sedgmen, Ethan Hughes and co.

Mind you, the addition of Teia Miles, Connor Menadue, Scott Greenhough and Jack Dorgan in the past 18 months has certainly helped.

“Sustained investment in junior participation has not only created depth across our competitions but has also ensured long-term sustainability for our clubs,” Gerdtz said. “Portarlington is a great example of a club now reaping the rewards of that commitment.

“After years of dedicated work developing their junior program, they now proudly field multiple under-18 teams, have achieved a 25 per cent growth in junior team numbers since 2019, and are actively developing a female football pathway within their club.

“It reinforces just how important it is to invest in your junior base if you want your club to thrive in the years to come”

Originally published as The average margin in BFNL games has almost halved in three years