Braddon too close to call, but candidate Chris Lynch’s history unlikely to be a ‘death blow’

The seat of Braddon is too close to predict ahead of this weekend’s federal election. FULL PREVIEW >>

BRADDON’s federal Labor candidate Chris Lynch is in with a fighting chance this Saturday, with revelations of a 1994 drug conviction thought unlikely to be a “death blow” to his campaign.

Election analyst Kevin Bonham said the seat – one of the most marginal in the country – will be extremely close and impossible to call ahead of the weekend’s federal election.

Chris Lynch

News Corp polling by YouGov MRP had incumbent Liberal MP Gavin Pearce retaining the seat on a two per cent margin.

But Dr Bonham said the sample size was too small to predict an outcome.

“We know that this seat will be very close,” he said.

“There’s not enough fine-scale information to say which way it’s going to go.”

Incumbent Braddon MP Gavin Pearce. Picture: Jodie Coward

He also said challenger, a Burnie councillor and coordinator at the St Giles Society, could well overcome recent revelations that he was found guilty of possessing the drug speed for sale almost 30 years ago.

“I’d have to think that that’s not helpful. I think he’s handled it as well as he can,” Dr Bonham said.

“Even with decades of turning your life around, it’s an interesting one.”

He noted however that Braddon was a “battlers’ electorate”, with a history of controversial political figures, such as former state Liberal MP Adam Brooks.

“It’s not the fussiest electorate about this sort of stuff. I’m not convinced it’s a death blow, but we’ll see,” Dr Bonham said.

“There’s also a lot going on, a lot of factors that could cause a swing to Labor in Braddon, such as the cost of living and health care.”

The popularity of Burnie-based Senator Jacqui Lambie could also lead to a swing away from the major parties, and towards Jacqui Lambie Network lower house candidate Sophie Lehmann – who Dr Bonham said could well get “several per cent”.

“I think the Jacqui Lambie Network will get a reasonable vote in Braddon but also there is a crowded field of candidates all fighting for the same vote – the Liberal Democrats, One Nation, United Australia Party,” Dr Bonham said.

“The people who are wanting those options aren’t left-wing people who vote for the Greens. The typical Braddon fourth party vote, there’s a lot of competition for.”

Senator Jacqui Lambie with Braddon Federal Election candidate Sophie Lehmann.

Braddon has changed hands between Labor and Liberal for six of the past eight elections and has a host of key issues this year including fish farms, wind farms, the health system, house prices that are pushing out locals, lack of affordable rentals, access to mental health care and the rising costs of food and fuel.

‘Should have been a penalty’: Young boy in shock over tackle

The eight-year-old boy who was accidentally bowled over by the Prime Minister bears no ill will towards the nation’s leader, but says that “it should have been a penalty”.

Luca Fauvette called into the Today Show with his grandmother Joy Roffe from the Devonport City Football Club and gave a full account of Wednesday’s incident.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison attends training night at the Devonport Strikers Soccer Club following the recent announcement by Gavin Pearce to upgrade ground facilities if re elected. This event is located in the electorate of BRADDON. Picture: Jason Edwards

“So we were playing soccer and I think someone tries to pass it to me or Mr Morrison, and what happened is he tripped and was trying not to fall on top of me and he tried to fall underneath me,” Luca said.

“He said that I was a good sport.”

Luca was not worried by being thrust into the national spotlight, even busting out a lengthy rap at the end of his interview.

Ms Roffe said she had been recording the game for Luca’s parents when he was crashed into by the Prime Minister.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison attends training night at the Devonport Strikers Soccer Club following the recent announcement by Gavin Pearce to upgrade ground facilities if re elected. This event is located in the electorate of BRADDON. Picture: Jason Edwards

“It was a bit of a shock, it wasn’t expected at all,” Ms Roffe said.

“I could see how (the Prime Minister) was trying to protect him and then Luca got up pretty well soon after so I could see he was alright.”

Luca said his classmates were still coming to terms with his nationwide fame.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Jenny Morrison attend a community BBQ Breakfast at the Whitemore Tennis Club in Northern Lyons with local Liberal Candidate for Lyons Susie Bower. This event is located in the electorate of LYONS. Picture: Jason Edwards

“I’m not sure what they’re going to think, they’re probably all shocked right now,” he said.

The Prime Minister and his wife Jenny attended a community BBQ Breakfast at the Whitemore Tennis Club in Northern Lyons this morning with local Liberal Candidate for Lyons Susie Bower. - Ed Bourke

Originally published as Braddon too close to call, but candidate Chris Lynch’s history unlikely to be a ‘death blow’