Political analyst gives his thoughts on the 2025 State Election results

A political analyst said early votes suggest Tasmanians have blamed Labor for sending them back to the polls, just a year after the last election. The full analysis.

Political analyst Dr Robert Hortle gives his thoughts on Dean Winter and Jeremy Rockliff.

Tasmanian voters look to have blamed Labor for sending them back to the polls just one year after the last election was held, a political analyst has suggested.

It comes after the Opposition saw a decline in their primary vote on Saturday night, while the Liberals enjoyed a surprising swing towards them.

The major parties accused each other of forcing an early election, with the Liberals saying Opposition Leader Dean Winter should never have moved a no-confidence motion against Premier Jeremy Rockliff, while Labor said the Premier should have resigned when he lost the vote in parliament.

Tasmania State Election 2025 Labor Leader Dean Winter with his wife Allison at Hobart Grand Chancellor tally room. Picture: Caroline Tan

Mr Rockliff instead chose to call an election, little more than a year after the last poll returned a hung parliament.

With 257 of 271 booths counted statewide on Saturday, Labor had taken a 3.2 per cent hit to its primary vote, while the Liberals had gained 2.9 per cent and the Greens 0.3 per cent.

Independents, meanwhile, had won 15.9 per cent of the statewide primary vote.

Tasmanian Policy Exchange deputy director Robert Hortle said it was too early to tell whether voters had decided to punish Labor for its no-confidence motion but that “it could be the case” that the Opposition was being blamed for the early election.

“Although … the Greens look like they’ve got a bit of a swing to them overall so far and people did see them as involved in the no-confidence motion, as well. So maybe it’s not entirely about that, but certainly the Liberals and Rockliff seem to have done a pretty good job of framing the election as being Labor’s fault,” he said.

Tasmanian Policy Exchange deputy director Dr Robert Hortle. Picture: Peter W. Allen

Dr Hortle said he was “a little bit” surprised by the swing to the Liberals in Bass and Braddon, given the apparent anti-Macquarie Point stadium sentiment in those electorates.

“I thought there might have been a little bit of a backlash there. But … if you’re a voter in Bass or Braddon who is anti-stadium, but pro-fish farming, pro-logging and so on, where do you end up? There’s sort of no home for you,” he said, noting that Labor also supported the stadium.

Originally published as Political analyst gives his thoughts on the 2025 State Election results