Liberal support growing, Labor’s faltering in lead-up to state election, polling indicates
The Liberal Party has been emboldened by new polling indicating that support for it is growing, while Labor is losing ground. WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY >>>
Tasmania
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New polling commissioned by the Liberals suggests the party is on track to win the most seats at the state election and that Labor could lose ground in Opposition Leader Dean Winter’s electorate of Franklin.
The Liberal Party tapped polling firm EMRS to track state voting intentions over the past fortnight using phone and online surveys.
The Mercury has obtained excerpts of the polling, including the statewide primary vote figures and the most recent survey results from the seat of Franklin, which encompasses Hobart’s Eastern Shore, as well as the Channel and Huon regions.
EMRS publishes quarterly polling on state voting intentions and most recently released figures publicly in May after surveying voters between the 13th and 17th of that month, about three weeks before an ultimately successful no-confidence motion was moved by Labor against Premier Jeremy Rockliff, prompting him to call an election.
That survey found that the Liberal primary vote had plummeted to a 16-year low of 29 per cent, while Labor’s had climbed to 31 per cent and the Greens’ to 14 per cent.
Mr Rockliff remained the preferred Premier (44 per cent) over Mr Winter (32 per cent).
The Liberals won 14 seats with 36.7 per cent of the primary vote at the 2024 election, Labor won 10 with 29 per cent, the Greens won five with 13.9 per cent, and independents picked up three with 8 per cent.
Since the election was called on June 11, EMRS has been conducting surveys for the Liberals to gauge public sentiment in the electorate ahead of polling day on July 19.
In the first round of this polling, undertaken between June 15-17, the Liberals had improved their primary vote to 32.3 per cent (+3.3 per cent), while Labor’s had fallen to 28.7 per cent (-2.3 per cent).
The Greens’ vote remained at 14 per cent, the independent vote had increased to 19.2 per cent (+2.2 per cent), the National Party was polling at 1.8 per cent, while the ‘other’ vote fell to 3.9 per cent.
Most recently, EMRS carried out phone and online surveys of voters between June 29 and July 1, with the results indicating the Liberal vote had strengthened even further.
The party increased its lead over Labor to 6.3 per cent, tracking at a primary vote of 34.5 per cent compared to the Opposition’s 28.2 per cent.
The numbers suggest another hung parliament is likely.
Meanwhile, the Greens saw a minor 0.1 per cent decrease in their support and the independent vote softened to 17.8 per cent (-1.4 per cent compared to the previous round of polling).
The National Party’s projected vote grew to 2.1 per cent and ‘other’ sank to 3.5 per cent.
EMRS asked voters who their preferred Premier was as part of the June 29-July 1 surveys, finding Mr Rockliff enjoyed 59 per cent support, while Mr Winter was on 41 per cent (excluding unknown responses).
The sample size was about 550 for each round of polling.
It’s understood the Liberals are hopeful of picking up a fourth seat in Braddon after seeing the EMRS results and believe they are also a chance of securing a fourth in Bass.
The figures from the latest polling suggest that the Liberals could obtain 39.2 per cent of the vote in Franklin, with Labor on just 23 per cent, the Greens on 16.1 per cent, and the independent vote at 21.7 per cent.
Those numbers would see the Liberals gain a 5.2 per cent positive swing in the electorate, and Labor hit by a 5 per cent downturn in its vote.
It’s understood the Liberal campaign believes the Franklin figures point to a fight for the seventh and final seat in the electorate that would likely be between Labor and independent Peter George and that Mr George would be favoured to win it.
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