Division-by-division: all of the 2025 State Election action from voting to the tally room
The Tasmania State Election 2025 delivered stunning upsets and surprising comebacks, as independents made inroads across the state’s five divisions. Here’s the Mercury’s breakdown by division of the first day of vote counting.
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As the first preference votes roll in, the Mercury covered the voting grounds in all of the state’s five divisions.
Check out the action and results from each division.
LYONS
Sitting Jacqui Lambie MP Andrew Jenner, who stood for the Nationals, has lost his seat in Lyons with former federal MP Brian Mitchell poised to rejuvenate his political career.
Mr Jenner’s Nationals running mate and former Liberal MP John Tucker is hopeful he can win a seat but had only .3 of a quota.
The Liberals are expected to return their three siting MPs, deputy Premier Guy Barnett who had 5312 votes, with fellow minister Jane Howlett 5200 and former Speaker in the House of Assembly, Mark Shelton 2635.
Labor missed the huge personal vote of former leader Rebecca White and were unable to get close to winning a third seat.
Sitting MP Jen Butler topped the poll for Labor with 3486 votes ahead of Mr Mitchell with 2753.
Casey Farrell, the son of Legislative Council president Craig Farrell, who was elected on a recount to replace Ms White polled 1538 votes behind Richard Goss with 1686.
The Greens Tabatha Badger is set for a second stint in parliament receiving just over a quota.
Mr Jenner said the public “get what they chose” and he was hopeful the Nationals would win a seat for the first time in Tasmania.
“With Hare-Clark you never know until the last few votes and I am hoping that John will get over the line,” he said.
“If it can be one of us that’s great.”
Mr Jenner said Lyons was a massive electorate and it would have been hard to get elected even if he had stood as an independent.
Mr Tucker conceded he had a difficult job to win.
“She’s pretty tough going,” he said.
“I’m still in with a chance but Carlo (Di Falco) is a threat.
“I was hoping we’d do better but it was a very short campaign and we weren’t really ready for it.
“It is not looking good for us in Bass and Braddon.”
Mr Mitchell said he would wait to see how the count progresses.
“It is not likely we will get three in Lyons unless something magical happens,” he said.
“It’s a bit sad and the reason I ran was to get three seats.
“It will depend how the cut up goes. I’m odds on but I wouldn’t put my house on it.”
At the 2024 election, then Labor leader Rebecca White had a massive first preference vote of 15,607 – blitzing her nearest rival Guy Barnett with 8252 votes.
Derwent Valley mayor Michelle Dracoulis said she was surprised at her personal vote.
“I’m pretty disappointed and shocked by the numbers because I had been having great conversations with voters,” she said.
“I’m not surprised by the result though.”
Ms Dracoulis was intending to stand as a Labor candidate at the last state election but pulled out due to her mayoral duties.
CLARK
The future of government minister Madeleine Ogilvie hangs in the balance in Clark as Independent MP Kristie Johnston has increased her vote significantly with more than a quota in her own right.
At 10pm, Ms Ogilvie had 2166 votes and was trailing fellow Liberals Sandy Bay butcher Marcus Vermey, with 3109 and sitting MP Simon Behrakis on 2674.
The likely make-up of Clark will remain the same with two Liberals, two Labor, two Greens and Ms Johnston though former Liberal Attorney-General Elise Archer who stood as an independent, believes she is still in with a chance.
Ms Johnston was sitting on 1.3 quotas with 5703 votes and was overjoyed at her success.
“I had .6 of a quota last time so my vote has more than doubled,” she said.
“I put it down to hard work and putting the community first.
“The stadium was a massive concern in Clark and dominated the questions I was asked. People thought it was a bad investment in a budget crisis.”
Labor fell short of picking up a third seat in Clark with sitting MP Ella Haddad with 3155 votes ahead of Josh Willie with 2940.
Ms Haddad was disappointed with Labor’s showing as was Luke Martin, the former Salmon Tasmania boss and adviser to late Premier Jim Bacon.
“We were obviously hoping Labor’s primary vote in Clark would be higher,” Ms Haddad said.
“From the early counting it looks like that might not happen but we won’t know until the vote is counted and we see where the preferences flow.”
Mr Martin was philosophical saying “it is what it is” and that he sensed the result in Clark two weeks ago.
“We haven’t strengthened the Labor brand,” he said.
“It is frustrating because I sense Tasmanians want change but they don’t see us as an alternative and our traditional Labor voters are frustrated and have turned to Kristie.
Deputy Greens leader Vica Bayley with 3265 votes was over the moon that he and sitting MP Helen Burnet will retain their seats.
“We’re very encouraged and humbled,” he said.
“It is a fabulous result. We made history by getting two Greens elected in Clark at the last election and we wanted to repeat that.
“We can’t get complacent though.”
He put the Greens’ success down to a good campaign with a “solid message”.
“People care about the environment and the stadium and they are rejecting the olds style politics of the major parties and the Liberals not following through on their policies.”
Ms Archer who polled 1041 votes said while “it was lower than I liked” she was hopeful some of Ms Johnston’s votes might flow to her.
“The preference flow will be interesting, I’m hopeful and it is a bit too early to tell,” she said.
“It will be a battle for the last few seats.”
Ms Ogilvie, was first elected as a Labor MP in 2014 but lost her seat at the 2018 election.
However, she was elected on a recount to replace Labor’s Scott Bacon in 2019 but switched to become an independent.
At the 2021 election she stood and won a seat for the Liberal Party.
Mr Behrakis recently paid tribute to his family and fiancee just days out from the election.
“Loz is my biggest supporter, doing this all while 5 months pregnant with our baby daughter,” he wrote.
“Thanks for believing in me, supporting me through thick and thin and putting up with my manic campaign craziness two years in a row.”
BASS
The Liberals have had a strong run in Bass thanks to popular candidate Bridget Archer.
After her loss to Jess Teesdale for the federal Bass seat in May, Ms Archer has come back taking a state seat.
Ms Archer said it was a “rollercoaster” of a year, tears have already been shed but they’re “less ugly than they were in May.”
Ms Archer said she would work for Tasmanians and the issues important to them.
“It is such a privilege to be able to serve the people of Bass,” she said.
“And to be able to have the opportunity to do that is the greatest privilege of my life.”
Ms Archer was at Liberal headquarters in Invermay, with her five children and husband.
She said Liberal was a “united team” with a plan for Tasmanians.
Ms Archer was known to cross the bench as a federal MP.
“You can expect from Bridget Archer whatever you might have experienced from Bridget Archer before,” she said.
“Not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing but my heart is well and truly in the community of Bass.”
Ms Archer claimed the victory early, later joined by re-elected Rob Fairs and Michael Ferguson.
Mr Fairs said he was “honoured” to be re-elected.
“You don’t expect to go back to an election after 15 months but that was Labor and Mr Winter’s doing,” he said.
“In the end, we were the ones that had a clear plan.”
Labor’s Janie Finlay was re-elected in Bass as well while her Bass counterpart, Michelle O’Byrne did not run for re-election, choosing to retire.
Ms Finlay said “thankful” to be re-elected.
“I’m thankful that the community have trusted me to continue to represent them,” she said.
“I think it’s going to be really interesting over the next couple of weeks to see where it all lands and to see the parliament the community has delivered.”
Green’s Cecily Rosol will also returned to her Bass seat.
“It’s very exciting to have been re-elected, I’m obviously feeling relieved as well,” she said.
“I’m excited to be back in and able to keep doing the work that I started doing.”
Ms Rosol said while she “recovers from the election campaign”, she’ll dive back in to advocate for the people of Bass.
The Green’s also had a strong swing in Bass of 4.7 per cent, with just over half the votes counted.
Former Jacqui Lambie Network member, now independent Rebekah Pentland did not win back her Bass seat, with 59 per cent of first preferences counted, she had 1054 votes.
FRANKLIN
Progressive independent Peter George has produced a stunning result in the electorate of Franklin, topping the poll and sapping votes from the Greens, with the major parties also suffering swings against them.
Mr George, whose well-resourced campaign was supported by a staggering 700 volunteers, is certain to pick up one of seven seats, having won 8377 personal votes with 64.1 per cent of the vote counted on Saturday night.
The former ABC foreign correspondent had garnered 16.3 per cent of the primary vote as of 10.40pm.
Mr George, who rose to prominence through his anti-salmon farming activism, seized on the momentum he gained in his impressive but ultimately unsuccessful bid to unseat federal Labor MP Julie Collins at the federal election in May.
His decision to run again at the state level two-and-a-half months later looks to have paid dividends.
Mr George told the Mercury on Saturday night that he felt “optimistic” about his political future.
“I think there is a real mood in Franklin for a change and kind of to break this deadlock of two old parties that should be able to co-operate with each other. I think voters are expecting us to be collaborative and to work across the party lines and to keep this parliament going for the next four years,” he said.
Mr George said he had never been a single-issue candidate and he cared about far more than just the environmental impacts of salmon farming.
“The things that drive me most are actually my real concern at the awful education outcomes, despite the good teachers that we have in this state; the fact that people are dying in ambulances and ramping and the hospital system is falling apart at the seams; the fact that 5000 people are on the housing waiting list with 92 weeks of waiting,” he said.
Franklin Liberal incumbent Eric Abetz, who was the second-highest vote-winner in the electorate at the time of writing with 6297 personal votes and will be re-elected, said he would struggle to work with Mr George due to their opposing political views.
“As I said during the campaign, Peter George is as green as a seasick boatie,” he told the ABC.
Labor took a hit to its vote in Franklin, copping a swing of 4.7 per cent against it, while the Liberals’ vote remained the same as it was last election.
Labor leader Dean Winter won 5621 personal votes, while Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff wasn’t far behind on 5118 and both will retain their seats.
The Greens’ vote has declined by a significant 6.4 per cent, appearing to be eaten into by Mr George.
Dr Woodruff was emboldened by a statewide swing to the Greens, saying she was “pumped” by the results.
But she acknowledged that Mr George had hurt the Greens’ vote in Franklin.
“We expected that Peter George, who is a progressive, who’s got almost identical policies to the Greens, would be eating into our vote,” she said.
“It just looks really positive in Franklin, given the fact that there’s another progressive who looks very likely to be elected, as well. So that’s just a great sign for people really wanting to have people who will stand up, fight for the environment, and oppose the [Macquarie Point] stadium.”
Star Labor candidate, Jessica Munday, who is the leader of the union movement in Tasmania, will be feeling less than optimistic about her prospects of winning a seat as incumbent Labor member Meg Brown is outpolling her by 622 votes.
While it’s probable Labor will retain their two seats in Franklin, it seems likely that the Liberals’ Nic Street, a former Cabinet Minister who has been open about his mental health struggles, looks set to be turfed out by voters.
BRADDON
The Liberals have a long wait ahead to see if they can pick up four seats in Braddon but former MHR Gavin Pearce is set to make his state Parliament debut in one of the three seats secured on Saturday night.
Mr Pearce said voters respected Premier Jeremy Rockliff, and they did not like the motion of no confidence.
“They didn’t think that was right — it’s not the Tasmanian way up here in the North West,” he said at 8pm on Saturday night from the Liberal Party at Latrobe Speedway.
“The state has had to take its eyes off the road.
“This is going to have an impact on Tasmania more broadly downstream.”
Mr Pearce said he was “mildly apprehensive, but committed to the task” of state parliament.
“Many, many people have said I’ll probably achieve more at state than I did at Federal level, because I’m hands on, get down and dirty.”
At 9PM the Liberals had more than 50 per cent of total formal votes, while Labor only had 20 per cent. Labor is likely to retain its two Braddon seats but not pick up the much wanted third.
In 2024, Liberals finished with around 46 per cent of the total formal vote and Labor with 25 per cent.
On Saturday night at the Labor Party in Ulverstone, Kelly Hunt said the mood at the small gathering was “buoyant”.
“People are obviously dejected, but there is a lot of positivity.”
He said Labor was happy with their two seats but “it would have been nice to get the third”.
Mr Hunt said he enjoyed campaigning and talking to the community, and he was planning on running for Labor again in the future.
Nationals candidate and ex Jaqui Lambie Network member Miriam Beswick is unlikely to retain her seat, with the Nationals vote bombing in Braddon.
Ms Beswick had 341 votes at 9PM and the Tasmanian Nationals had just .12 of a quota.
Independent member for Braddon Craig Garland is likely to return to Parliament with 5,617 first preference votes just after 9PM.
The party attracted many of the record number of independent candidates running in the seat of Braddon who said the major parties were “on the nose”.
Latrobe business owner Malcolm Ryan was one of the 12 other independents running, who were hoping to snag votes from people turning away from the majors.
“We’ve kept a safe nest for people to come and jump in,” Mr Ryan said.
“That one’s been shat in.”
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