Anthony Albanese tipped to call April 12 federal election during Adelaide’s AFL Gather Round | Paul Starick

Brace yourself for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to add an extra event to your Gather Round weekend calendar, writes Paul Starick.

Brace yourself for a federal election on the day four AFL matches are staged in South Australia during Gather Round.

Saturday, April 12 is looming as the most likely polling day, following a short campaign called by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on either March 9 or 10 – after the Western Australian election on Saturday, March 8.

Labor strategists have given up on the idea of another interest rate cut before the election is due in mid-May. So they want to gather whatever momentum they can from the rate relief as soon as the WA election is out of the way.

The national landscape is looking dismal for federal Labor, even if this is cushioned in South Australia by Premier Peter Malinauskas’s ongoing honeymoon and the state Liberals’ perilous situation.

Premier Peter Malinauskas and AFL Chief Executive Andrew Dillon at Adelaide Oval in July, 2024, announcing dates for the 2025 AFL Gather Round. Picture: Dean Martin

A weekend poll showing the Peter Dutton-led Coalition heading for a landslide victory at a federal election within weeks stunned many political insiders. But the Resolve Strategic survey, showing the Coalition with a lead of 55-45 per cent in two-party terms, might not be so far-fetched.

The Coalition has the momentum and the swing is on. But the uphill battle for Mr Dutton is garnering enough votes in the right places.

The Liberals in 2022 lost many of their blue-ribbon seats in Sydney and Melbourne to teals. In a polarised, febrile electoral climate, voters are searching for alternatives. Both major parties appear destined for low primary votes and minority government seems most likely.

Voters are reeling from multiple household economic crises: 13 interest rate rises in the 18 months to November, 2023 coupled with the crippling costs of housing, groceries, electricity and just about everything.

Little wonder this struggle is constantly on their mind and they want political leaders to do something to fix it.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Premier Peter Malinauskas at Whyalla steelworks on February 20. Picture: NewsWire / Tim Joy

Federal Labor might now be realising the immense hole it dug for itself, by putting the Voice referendum atop of the national agenda when voters demanded a hip pocket-focus. Mr Albanese looks listless and a little punch-drunk from trying to recapture momentum. This has gone to Mr Dutton, who has started to project confidence, bordering on Trump-style arrogance, about his action list “when he is
prime minister”.

It is noteworthy that the Resolve result of 55 per cent Coalition and 45 per cent Labor is exactly the same, when rounded off, as the 2022 South Australian state election.

Peter Malinauskas-led Labor won this in a landslide, turfing out the Steven Marshall-led Liberals after just one four-year term.

For most of the Marshall government’s reign, it appeared headed for re-election. But Mr Malinauskas skilfully exploited the Covid-19 pandemic’s worst impact to make the key issue a thus-far failed promise to fix ambulance ramping.

This peeled off traditional Liberal voters, particularly small businesses crushed by onerous pandemic restrictions, to swing behind Labor.

Premier Peter Malinauskas AFL Chief Executive Andrew Dillon at Adelaide Oval. Picture: Dean Martin

Mr Malinauskas has mostly kept these constituencies. He is widely viewed as an action man, someone who gets things done on issues that matter – be they luring AFL Gather Round, LIV Golf or Katy Perry, or ousting Sanjeev Gupta’s GFG as Whyalla steelworks owner.

Coupled with the Liberal Party plumbing historic electoral lows after losing two by-elections last year, this has inoculated Mr Malinauskas from policy failures in what could be labelled the three Hs – hospitals, housing and hydrogen.

Boosting housing supply has involved plenty of policy work with comparatively little on-ground results. The 2021 hydrogen jobs plan has been deferred, with generators to be sold off to boost electricity generation. This, at least, is something voters can understand as addressing a kitchen table issue.

Labor’s stunning Black by-election victory last November showed mortgage-belt voters could distinguish between state and federal issues. This suggests Malinauskas Labor will be substantially inoculated from any federal election result.

Mr Albanese must have looked at Mr Malinauskas last week and wished for even just a portion of his ally’s electoral appeal.

Originally published as Anthony Albanese tipped to call April 12 federal election during Adelaide’s AFL Gather Round | Paul Starick