Analysis: Donald Trump AUKUS review threats thousands of jobs and billions of dollars for Adelaide naval shipbuilding | Paul Starick

Adelaide submarine construction has weathered huge storms but can it survive the Trump administration’s AUKUS review? Paul Starick explores the possible results.

Significant uncertainty and the occasional triumph have marked Australia’s naval shipbuilding enterprise in Adelaide’s northwest.

Throughout the past four decades, there’s been controversies over “dud subs” making noise like “an underwater rock concert” and a federal minister declaring the shipyard couldn’t be trusted “to build a canoe”.

There’s been a fair share of successes too. An Adelaide-built Collins class submarine hunted and “sank” a US nuclear rival in a 2002 underwater exercise.

South Australians celebrated in 2005, when Collins class constructor ASC moved into a new era by beating a Victorian rival to secure a $6bn contract to build three air warfare destroyers for the navy.

Collins class submarines HMAS Collins, HMAS Farncomb, HMAS Dechaineux and HMAS Sheean in formation while transiting through Cockburn Sound, Western Australia, in 2019. Picture: Department of Defence

But the most significant moment in the Osborne Naval Shipyard’s history was in September, 2021 – the announcement of the trinational AUKUS partnership to build at least eight nuclear-powered submarines there.

In a stunning move, a $50bn deal with France to build at least 12 conventionally powered submarines at Osborne was summarily scuttled.

After some initial outrage at the shipyard being left high and dry, state and federal Labor backed AUKUS and the nuclear submarine venture.

Even the-then Coalition government architects of the AUKUS deal were surprised that anticipation about the world’s most complex machines being built in Adelaide’s northwest dramatically overpowered the muted opposition.

There were undercurrents of doubt and scepticism about AUKUS, both on the viability of Adelaide-based construction and the strategic wisdom of being tied to the United States.

Former foreign minister and UK high commissioner Alexander Downer has been a prominent sceptic of the Adelaide submarine build, declaring they should and would be built overseas.

But the critics had been outliers as AUKUS achieved bipartisan support and survived government changes across all three nations – until now.

United States Under Secretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby. Picture: Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg

AUKUS is the latest in the path of Donald Trump’s wrecking ball as its future is clouded by a 30-day Pentagon review examining its alignment with the President’s America First Agenda.

Noted AUKUS submarine sceptic Elbridge Colby, Trump’s Under Secretary of Defence for Policy, will lead the review.

This has, with some justification, triggered alarm that Australia will be, yet again, left without a submarine program to replace the ageing Collins class fleet.

Defence officials across the UK and Australia have downplayed the prospect of AUKUS being scuttled, saying it is understandable that a new regime would review an initiative of a previous Presidency.

Even Mr Downer, who has spoken about AUKUS with Mr Colby and people close to Mr Trump, believes the Americans will not pull support for an Osborne submarine build.

However, British defence industry sources told The Times there was a risk Australia would agree to accept America’s Virginia class submarines and end plans to build new ones in concert with the UK, thus cutting that nation out of the deal.

Render of the SSN-AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine. Picture: BAE Systems

By contrast, though, a former UK minister told The Times AUKUS was created to have a third nation with nuclear-powered submarine build capability “precisely because more are needed to patrol and defend Indo-Pacific waters” because “President Trump is laser focused on the China threats and the US’s Indo-Pacific challenges”.

There also is the prospect, as canvassed by The Wall Street Journal, of the US pulling out of AUKUS, and the UK and Australia pressing ahead with joint plans to build nuclear-powered submarines themselves.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on June 1 outlined plans to build 12 AUKUS submarines, kickstarting the Australian program.

Adelaide submarine building is at its most critical crossroads. The AUKUS review will determine whether thousands of highly skilled jobs are created to build the world’s most complex machine at Osborne, or whether the submarine yard is plunged into yet another valley of death.

Originally published as Analysis: Donald Trump AUKUS review threats thousands of jobs and billions of dollars for Adelaide naval shipbuilding | Paul Starick