Federal election 2022: Qld support wanes for Scott Morrison’s Coalition

The state that delivered government to Scott Morrison last time around might not be so generous this time, exclusive polling reveals.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Coalition holds only a narrow lead against Labor as the preferred government of Queenslanders, an exclusive poll conducted for The Courier-Mail has revealed.

The results of the YouGov poll of 1021 Queenslanders has signalled support for Mr Morrison in the state that delivered him the 2019 “miracle” win has waned just months before the 2022 election.

But a significant chunk of Queenslanders polled — 30 per cent — remained on the fence about federal Labor leader Anthony Albanese, despite his multiple visits to the state this year.

Support for an Albanese Labor government was strongest in Brisbane, but the wider South East Queensland region overwhelmingly preferred a Morrison government.

The YouGov poll, conducted online between February 18 and 23, came at the end of a politically damaging fortnight for the Government and concluded just before the tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated into war.

It also follows a damaging summer in which the Government copped the ire of the public during severe supply chain shortages caused by the Covid-19 Omicron staffing crunch and ongoing deadly outbreaks of the virus in aged care.

However the poll showed a Morrison Coalition was still the preferred government overall, albeit narrowly, at 43 per cent to Albanese and Labor’s 39 per cent.

The other 18 per cent couldn’t decide.

Support for a Labor government was strongest in Brisbane, at 44 per cent against the Coalition’s 38 per cent.

But in wider South East Queensland just 29 per cent felt an Albanese Labor government would be better for Queensland, while 52 per cent believed Morrison’s Coalition should remain in charge.

Satisfaction of Mr Morrison and Mr Albanese’s leadership in the YouGov poll was largely in line with results from Newspoll in early February.

Overall 41 per cent of Queenslanders polled were satisfied with Mr Morrison’s performance in the job, with 47 per cent dissatisfied and 12 per cent undecided.

Satisfaction of Mr Albanese’s leadership stood at 32 per cent, with 38 per cent dissatisfied.

But 30 per cent of those polled were undecided about the Labor leader’s performance — signalling they hadn’t made up their mind about Mr Albanese, or worse, didn’t know of him to sufficiently have an opinion.

Mr Albanese has spent about 12 days in Queensland on official business this year, including a major road trip from Cairns down to Gladstone and a last minute stop in Maryborough in early January.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison might not be able to count on Queensland this time around.

Comparatively, the Prime Minister has spent six days in Queensland in 2022.

His sixth day was on Sunday, when Mr Morrison flew to Brisbane to receive an update on the devastating South East Queensland floods.

Mr Morrison was meant to make his first major Sunshine State-centric speech of the year at the Queensland Media Club today, but the event was cancelled.

Federal Labor’s woeful 2019 election showing left the party with just six seats in Queensland — all in South East Queensland and four in the immediate Brisbane area.

LNP sources have maintained the Government will spend the 2022 campaign defending the 23 seats it holds in Queensland, particularly Labor’s three high-priority target seats.

Those seats include the Gladstone-based seat of Flynn, where the LNP’s hold of the electorate despite having a margin of 8.7 per cent is under threat due to the retirement of Ken O’Dowd and Labor’s preselection of popular Mayor Matt Burnett.

The other seats are Longman, held by LNP’s Terry Young with a margin of 3.3 per cent and Brisbane, held by LNP MP and Assistant Minister Trevor Evans with a 4.9 per cent buffer.

Labor’s candidate in Longman is health and economics policy expert Rebecca Fanning while Madonna Jarrett, director at consultancy firm Deloitte, is vying for Brisbane.

The Courier-Mail recently reported Labor was increasingly confident of taking the seat of Brisbane after new internal research detected a “notable shift” in the marginal seat.

Originally published as Federal election 2022: Qld support wanes for Scott Morrison’s Coalition